Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumSolar Prices Nosedive After China Pullback Floods Global Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-20/solar-prices-nosedive-after-china-pullback-floods-global-marketSolar panels were already getting cheaper this year, and then China pulled the plug this month on about 20 gigawatts of domestic installations. The result was a glut of global inventories, and now prices are plunging even faster.
China, the worlds biggest solar market, on June 1 slammed the brakes on new projects that would have had as much capacity as about 20 nuclear power plants. With a global panel glut its a buyers market and developers in other countries are delaying purchases, holding out for even lower prices.
The average price for a polysilicon module slumped 4.79 percent since May 30, reaching a record low of 27.8 cents a watt Wednesday, according to PVInsights. Thats on track to be the biggest monthly decline since December 2016, the last time the industry was facing a global oversupply. China manufactures about 70 percent of the worlds solar components.
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Chinese and international project developers are putting their orders on hold as modules get cheaper, Yali Jiang, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said in a research note Tuesday. By the end of the year, she expects module prices will slide to 24 cents a watt, down 35 percent from 37 cents at the end of 2017.
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shanny
(6,709 posts)This should really hammer the fossil fuel industry. Solar already costs half as much as coal-generated power. How sad for them.
mountain grammy
(26,623 posts)shanny
(6,709 posts)Crutchez_CuiBono
(7,725 posts)big solar factory opened around Toledo I was informed by the national media. 350 jobs...a majority of them rehired by the old factory that went bust. Sad that companies hold back on new investment and hiring during Democrat Admin's bc it makes it seem like the repub form of politics is the correct one. It's blather and they know it. Malicious and self-centered. My city is going to build solar electric plants to convert. I'm glad it's happening, but, they should've started making the push harder under President Obama. but they didn't bc...see above. (plus the guys black right?) ugh.
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)First Solar decided prior to the election to transition production to a newer model panel. That involved layoffs while the new line was built, but most expected those jobs to return once production of the newer panels began.
At the time of the decision, there was every reason to believe that Obama would be followed by Clinton. There isn't any reason to correlate the layoffs with some corporate avoidance of capital expenditure during democratic administrations... especially since the capital expenditure was actually decided on during the last administration.
Crutchez_CuiBono
(7,725 posts)My post was mean as a addition to the story. Basically informing the group that solar factories are expanding jobs etc.
SeattleVet
(5,477 posts)The new system cost a little more than half of what the original one did in 2013. Newer equipment has a higher efficiency and lower cost. There is still a 30% federal tax credit on these systems (essentially paying back almost ⅓ of the cost of the system), and the system's payback period for us will wind up being around 5 years. Our overall electric bills should be pretty much a wash over the year (high production/low usage during the summer, lower production and higher usage during the winter). They just finished the installation yesterday, and on Monday we get final inspection and have it turned on to start production. It has been nice over the past 5 years, watching the electric meter run backwards for a good portion of the year!
We replaced the system because the old one had a manufacturing defect in the panels that was causing some of the panels to delaminate, and some installations had even had fires when diodes blew out. The manufacturer closed up shop in the state and moved, abandoning all warranty claims, etc. The state is working with the CPSC and others to try to rectify, but, in the meantime, we figured it was worth it to increase the capacity and remove the potentially dangerous equipment, and at the same time upscale the system to cover more of our usage.
Even in a place like Seattle solar works, and works well.
Crutchez_CuiBono
(7,725 posts)Do you think any of the damage was from wind, and weather changes? Or isnt 5 years long enough to really know? Seems like wind (especially excess winds we have now), would really impact big free standing panels. How did you choose your angle to the sun to compensate for the wind? Did you even have to? An inquiring mind wants to know.
SeattleVet
(5,477 posts)Our roof is a shed roof that slopes to the south; when we had the house rebuilt a while back we did it specifically to make it easy to add solar at a later date. We put the system in much sooner than we had expected to, when we got a great deal with the SolarizeWA program, where they were going neighborhood by neighborhood and getting a lot of people to get solar. Since so many were buying at the same time we got a bulk price on panels and inverters. The panels we got were the highest rated of what was offered...double glass construction with the cells embedded between, and so strong we were able to walk on them when we did something on the roof. They were supposed to have a 20-year warranty, to 95% output.
The ones we just had removed were on a rack that sort of 'shingled' the panels; they were elevated at the rear and sloped down, and the one below were elevated above the edges of the upper ones. No overlap, but it gave each panel a slightly higher tilt angle. The new ones are all parallel to the roof, and the rack system holds them maybe 4 or 5" above the roof. They are all bolted down around the edges, to the racks.
The racking systems of the older system and our new one are supposed to be good for 100MPH or higher winds; the highest gusts I've ever seen here in Seattle were around 70. The angle is more important to keep the panels facing the greatest exposure to the sun, and the roof mount racks that hold them are the important part for wind. Commercial free-standing systems (say, in the desert) usually are on a servo and gimbal to move them as the sun moves across the sky. Our neighbors with varying roof configurations have panels generally facing south, and some facing west.
Another positive effect of installing solar that most people don't know is that your roofing material (we have the usual 3-tab asphalt shingles) are shaded and protected from the sun and snow, which vastly extends the roof's lifespan. Even on an overcast day we get maybe 15-20% of capacity production.
(It's really NICE being able to watch our electric meter run backwards!)
Crutchez_CuiBono
(7,725 posts)Walk on them even...Unreal! I had no idea they were that strong. Wonderful write-up that is very informative. I appreciate it.
NickB79
(19,253 posts)That seems to be a very important story in itself; the last thing we need is China's adoption of renewables slowing down.
Edit: never mind, I saw that they're waiting for even lower prices. Too bad though, we don't have time to waste on reducing our carbon emissons.
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)There's every reason to believe that much (if not most) of the government demand was really a plan to soak up excess production that was causing a glut (driving down prices and endangering government-backed companies).
Maybe something to do with the 30% tariff in the US? Perhaps they want to let prices decline far enough that they can sell their output to the U.S. even with the tariff?