Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumSeven Reasons Why The Internal Combustion Engine Is A Dead Man Walking
The age of the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) is over. Electric cars are the future. The transition has just begun, but the move from ICE vehicles to Electric will happen sooner and more quickly than most people suspect.
What are the factors that lead me to say this with such confidence?
1 China says so!
China is now the world's largest car market (of the 86m cars sold in 2017, 30% (25.8m) were sold in China, compared to 20% (17.2m) in the US, and 18% (15.6m) in the EU).
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2 Battery Costs are falling
The main cost of an electric vehicle is the cost of the battery. These price of these batteries is falling significantly.
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3 Battery capacity is increasing
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4 Electric car batteries have a very long life
Contrary to what many believe, the batteries in electric vehicles don't degrade over time (or over miles/kilometers driven either).
This is a graph of the battery capacity of Tesla Model S/X vehicles, and it shows that after driving 270,000km (roughly 168,000 miles), the batteries still had 91% of their original capacity. - Forbes
msongs
(67,443 posts)GeoWilliam750
(2,522 posts)Could you provide a link to the original article, please?
Rhiannon12866
(206,072 posts)Seven Reasons Why The Internal Combustion Engine Is A Dead Man Walking [Updated]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2018/09/06/seven-reasons-why-the-internal-combustion-engine-is-a-dead-man-walking-updated/#5fe8ce80603f
mitch96
(13,926 posts)And refill/recharge quickly I think the IC engine will be around for a while.. Maybe not gasoline, maybe Natural gas but the convenience factor is big.. It will be a slow change for sure.. I think hybrids will take over because of the fuel savings. Electric to take off and then run on the IC where it's most efficient. This has been used with great effect in the Maritime industry. Diesel /Electric ships have been used for years. An IC engine is most efficient (and fuel efficient) when run at a constant speed. With ships the diesel runs at a constant speed and the electric motor varies the boats speed. The same thing can be done with autos. Then it doesn't matter which source the electric motor gets it's juice. Gas,diesel, natural gas,battery or big ass capacitor... YMMV..
m
ffr
(22,672 posts)250 - 350 miles is already on the table and more than adequate for day-to-day use. Interstate charging along the route with superchargers is all pre-calcuated, at least by Tesla vehicles. Superchargers are almost always by retail & food outlets. Their cars even direct you towards the nearest charger if you forget the dash warnings.
https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims3/GLOB/legacy_thumbnail/800x450/format/jpg/quality/85/
mitch96
(13,926 posts)With todays technology to fully supercharge a Tesla battery for a 350 mile leg of a trip is 75 min by their own calculations... That's a bit long. Longer than a leisurely lunch I'd say.. Maybe in the future the times will come down. Compare that to a natural gas/electric hybrid which takes the same amount of time as a gasoline fill up.. I think if they came up with a fast charge capacitor system would cut the time down.... YMMV..
m
ffr
(22,672 posts)As a EV owner, you don't fully charge at each stop, unless you're doing it intentionally to go the full distance of the battery from station to station. That works against the driver, in the case of a Tesla, since the charger will slow its rate of recharge as the battery power goes above about 80%.
A couple things. Driving in such a manner, with the current battery technology, hurts battery longevity, going from 0% to 100% often, like with a telephone battery. Instead, what the car's computer does is minimize the amount of time necessary at each supercharger station where the battery doesn't go below about 30%, recharges at the maximum rate possible, of about 300 MPH, and leaves it up to the driver to decide how much longer after the car notifies both on dash display and via phone APP that the car has received the charge it needs to get to the next charger with buffer. The car/phone APP will even send a notification when the car is nearing the pre-specified charge. So unless drivers sit down for lunch or dinner while the car charges across the street, you'll rarely see a Tesla there for more than 30 minutes. The norm is about 20 minutes and you're on your way.
So in a head-to-head matchup with an ICE vehicle where the EV is fully charged prior to departure, I'm saying a 400 - 500 mile trip would cost the battery powered driver about 30 -40 minutes more to reach the destination.
Now, if you take into account Tesla's upcoming Roadster (top speed 250+ MPH and range of 600+ miles on a single charge), the EV Roadster can potentially reverse that scenario and whip the ICE vehicle by hours. So EVs and the EV lifestyle are here to stay.
mitch96
(13,926 posts)I understand day to day running around town you don't do a full charge. On the highway is another thing all together... It just takes longer and in this instant gratification world we live in, I think it will be a while for the total electric car to be as practical (but not as efficient and green) as a hybrid... I would love a diesel/electric hybrid that ran on biodiesel... Nothing like a car that smells like french fries!!
m
ffr
(22,672 posts)StevieM
(10,500 posts)for recharging.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)ffr
(22,672 posts)developed.
The first one is a little short on details and also makes a gaping misstatement:
From my second-hand experience driving across interstates with Tesla vehicles and recharging them, overnight is an exaggeration anymore. A standard NEMA-1450 or 30A electric dryer outlet can charge a Tesla 150 miles from the nearest Supercharger in 5 hours or less, and that's without help from the vehicle's GPS routing console, which does all the route and charging calculating based on the vehicle's current charge automatically. So just as you fuel up your ICE vehicle before a long trip, the Tesla is no different. With a full tank for either to begin with, EVs only arrive slightly behind their ICE counterparts. Except with the Tesla EV, you go in style and without the oil and gasoline pollution.
The second article sounds like it addresses more the electrolyte type battery technology. Not sure how that would translate to lithium, but maybe it could have some beneficial part. Not sure.
But getting back to ownership and living with an EV, from an outsider's viewpoint, you think it's complicated and difficult, like in the article. But in reality, from the owner's standpoint, they only fully charge their vehicles for long trips. For normal weekly use, they only charge them a couple times a week to about 70 - 90% of capacity. I'm talking about $5 of electrical usage to power their transportation use per week. They drive for practically nothing, whereas I pay $48/week on my ICE vehicle to fill up at the discount gas station. In other words, I pay more to pollute and get my hands smelling like gasoline and oil on the garage floor as a privilege to drive around an underpowered ICE vehicle that makes a bunch of noise pollution on top of it all.
I'm on the cusp of going EV soon. I feel like I am and a lot of people are already late to the EV advantage.