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Related: About this forumSolar Power Overcomes Major Obstacles With Record Installations In 2018
https://www.iflscience.com/technology/solar-power-overcomes-major-obstacles-with-record-installations-in-2018/Solar Power Overcomes Major Obstacles With Record Installations In 2018
Solar power, a beacon of hope amid the grim news about climate change, faced major obstacles in 2018 that had even solar optimists fearing its astonishing run of growth would come to an end. Yet once again it has beaten the naysayers.
SolarPower Europe announced at its annual summit that yet again more solar cells were added worldwide than ever before, passing the long-sought 100 gigawatt (GW) barrier for the first time. All this despite hostility from the White House, trade wars raising the cost of panels in many places, and most damaging of all, the Chinese government capping new solar projects.
It took more than 20 years from the production of the first commercial solar cell to the worldwide installation of a solar gigawatt. At the turn of the millennium, all the solar power in the world could not have powered a middle-sized city. Most efforts to map a path to a clean energy future didn't see solar power as being a significant factor until mid-century, if at all.
Since then, the amount of solar in the world has doubled every two to three years. The more cells installed, the more economies of scale and improved production techniques brought down costs, further increasing demand. If that trend were to continue, the entire world's electricity supply would be pure solar power by 2030. No one expects that to happen, so at some point, this exponential growth has to fade. Last June, it looked like 2018 would be the year many feared less additional capacity would be added than in 2017.
Solar power, a beacon of hope amid the grim news about climate change, faced major obstacles in 2018 that had even solar optimists fearing its astonishing run of growth would come to an end. Yet once again it has beaten the naysayers.
SolarPower Europe announced at its annual summit that yet again more solar cells were added worldwide than ever before, passing the long-sought 100 gigawatt (GW) barrier for the first time. All this despite hostility from the White House, trade wars raising the cost of panels in many places, and most damaging of all, the Chinese government capping new solar projects.
It took more than 20 years from the production of the first commercial solar cell to the worldwide installation of a solar gigawatt. At the turn of the millennium, all the solar power in the world could not have powered a middle-sized city. Most efforts to map a path to a clean energy future didn't see solar power as being a significant factor until mid-century, if at all.
Since then, the amount of solar in the world has doubled every two to three years. The more cells installed, the more economies of scale and improved production techniques brought down costs, further increasing demand. If that trend were to continue, the entire world's electricity supply would be pure solar power by 2030. No one expects that to happen, so at some point, this exponential growth has to fade. Last June, it looked like 2018 would be the year many feared less additional capacity would be added than in 2017.
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Solar Power Overcomes Major Obstacles With Record Installations In 2018 (Original Post)
OKIsItJustMe
Mar 2019
OP
progree
(10,909 posts)1. 5% from 2017 to 2018 sure sounds like a slowdown to me, compared to doubling every 2-3 years
Last edited Wed Mar 13, 2019, 11:34 PM - Edit history (5)
http://www.solarpowereurope.org/solar-optimism-sweeps-europe/Global solar power installations increased by around 5% to 104.1 GW in 2018, in comparison to 99.1 GW in 2017
From 99.1 to 104.1 GW (5.0 GW) in one year represents a growth of 5.045% which, if continued, would result in a doubling in 14.08 years.
At the turn of the millennium ... Since then, the amount of solar in the world has doubled every two to three years. ... If that trend were to continue, the entire world's electricity supply would be pure solar power by 2030. No one expects that to happen, so at some point, this exponential growth has to fade. Last June, it looked like 2018 would be the year many feared less additional capacity would be added than in 2017.
A doubling every 2 years occurs with a 41.4% growth rate. A doubling every 3 years occurs with a 26.0% growth rate. At some point intermittency becomes a problem, as China is experiencing and the reason they have cut back.
EDITED TO CORRECT: on Googling around, the 99.1 GW in 2017 is the ADDITIONAL capacity added in that year. Likewise the 104.1 GW in 2018 is the ADDITIONAL capacity added in that year. I was interpreting these numbers to be the total installed capacity (existing and new) at the end of each year. So what I wrote above is a bunch of crap. But I'm leaving it -- along with this edit of course -- in case anyone else was confused.
Some additional quick Google stuff:
BNEF (Bloomberg NEF, January 16, 2019) reckons that solar installations in 2018 will end up at about 109GW, once the final numbers come in during the next few weeks. The year ahead is likely to see growth to the 125GW to 141GW range ....
-- https://about.bnef.com/blog/transition-energy-transport-10-predictions-2019/
Wikipedia added to the above:
"resulting in a total capacity of 637653 GW by the end of the year."
(I don't see that in the Bloomberg NEF article) -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
Another quick Google:
By the end of 2014, the total installed electricity generating capacity ((of all types -Progree)) worldwide was nearly 6.142 TW (million MW) which only includes generation connected to local electricity grid
-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
6.142 TW = 6142 GW.
As always, solar and wind capacity (GW) is not the same as energy (GWH), is intermittent etc., needs to be backed up by enough battery or other storage, or by much more reliable dispatchable resources like fossil- and nuclear- plants.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)2. Your Correction
I'm glad you figured it out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
progree
(10,909 posts)3. It was a struggle n/t