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Related: About this forumGlobal Atmospheric Methane Concentrations Rising Faster Than Expected, No One Quite Sure Why
Every week, dozens of metal flasks arrive at NOAAs Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, each one loaded with air from a distant corner of the world. Research chemist Ed Dlugokencky and his colleagues in the Global Monitoring Division catalog the canisters, and then use a series of high-precision tools a gas chromatograph, a flame ionization detector, sophisticated software to measure how much carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane each flask contains.
These air samples collected at observatories in Hawaii, Alaska, American Samoa, and Antarctica, and from tall towers, small aircraft, and volunteers on every continent have been coming to Boulder for more than four decades, as part of one of the worlds longest-running greenhouse gas monitoring programs. The air in the flasks shows that the concentration of methane in the atmosphere had been steadily rising since 1983, before levelling off around 2000. And then, boom, look at how it changes here, Dlugokencky says, pointing at a graph on his computer screen. This is really an abrupt change in the global methane budget, starting around 2007.
The amount of methane in the atmosphere has been increasing ever since. And nobody really knows why. Whats more, no one saw it coming. Methane levels have been climbing more steeply than climate experts anticipated, to a degree so unexpected that it was not considered in pathway models preparatory to the Paris Agreement, as Dlugokencky and several co-authors noted in a recently published paper.
As the years plod on and the methane piles up, solving this mystery has taken on increasing urgency. Over a 20-year-time frame, methane traps 86 times as much heat in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. It is responsible for about a quarter of total atmospheric warming to date. And while the steady increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are deeply worrying, they are at least conforming to scientists expectations. Methane is not. Methane arguably humanitys earliest signature on the climate is the wild card. [ ]
Some researchers, such as Robert Howarth of Cornell, remain convinced that fugitive emissions from oil and gas production especially fracking are systematically underestimated, and likely to be behind the global spike. Its a compelling narrative, says Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, but the larger community does not support that view. [ ] The bottom line, says Canadell, is that methane is going up, and doesnt look like it will stop anytime soon.
Zonally averaged methane (CH4) growth rate versus sine‐of‐latitude (equal area) and time: (above) 19922018. (below) Shows detail for 20052018. Graphic: Nisbet, et al., 2019 / Global Biogeochemical Cycles
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https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/05/the-methane-detectives-on-the-trail-of-a-global-warming-mystery-the-bottom-line-is-that-methane-is-going-up-and-doesnt-look-like-it-will-stop-anytime-soon.html
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Global Atmospheric Methane Concentrations Rising Faster Than Expected, No One Quite Sure Why (Original Post)
hatrack
May 2019
OP
underpants
(182,949 posts)1. Well, Trump has been traveling of late
lapfog_1
(29,228 posts)2. melting tundra and decreasing permafrost