Global Warming Made July 2019 EU Heatwave Up To 100 Times More Likely

Rank of annual maximum temperatures observed in Europe in 2019 compared to 1950-2018, based on the E-OBS data set (Haylock, et al., 2008, version 19, extended with monthly and daily updates to 30 July 2019; preliminary data). Graphic: Vautard, et al., 2019 / World Weather Attribution

2 August 2019 (University of Oxford) – Record-breaking July 2019 heatwave would have been extremely unlikely without human-induced climate change in many parts of continental Europe, shows a near real-time analysis from World Weather Attribution and partners including Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI).

Over two to four days at the end of July 2019, Western Europe saw temperatures reach 42.6 degrees in Paris, while the UK set a new daily temperature record at 38.7 degrees. The effects of these extreme temperatures are far-reaching: from delayed trains and sleepless nights, to deaths from drowning and an increased mortality risk for the elderly, babies and vulnerable populations.

An international team of scientists, including researchers from the ECI, the Dutch Met office (KNMI), the UK Met Office and Météo France, conducted a rapid analysis to determine whether and to what extent the probability of these heatwave events had changed as a result of climate change. The analysis was led by World Weather Attribution, an international effort to analyse the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events such as heatwaves, cold spells, and droughts.

Combining established modelling methodologies and observational data, the researchers found that in France and the Netherlands, the heatwave was made about one hundred times (and at least 10 times) more likely due to climate change. This means that before global warming a similar heatwave would have been extremely improbable, with a chance of happening only once in a thousand years.

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https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/08/european-heatwave-made-up-to-100-times-more-likely-due-to-global-warming-the-july-2019-heatwave-was-so-extreme-over-europe-that-the-observed-magnitudes-would-have-been-extremely-unl.html