Fires and floods: maps of Europe predict scale of climate catastrophe

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/10/fires-floods-maps-europe-climate-catastrophe

Fires and floods: maps of Europe predict scale of climate catastrophe

Jennifer Rankin in Brussels

Mon 10 Feb 2020 06.00 GMT Last modified on Mon 10 Feb 2020 08.41 GMT

A series of detailed maps have laid bare the scale of possible forest fires, floods, droughts and deluges that Europe could face by the end of the century without urgent action to adapt to and confront global heating.

An average one-metre rise in sea levels by the end of the century – without any flood prevention action – would mean 90% of the surface of Hull would be under water, according to the European Environment Agency.

English cities including Norwich, Margate, Southend-on-Sea, Runcorn and Blackpool could also experience flooding covering more than 40% of the urban area.

Across the North Sea, Dutch cities including the Hague, Rotterdam and Leiden were predicted to face severe floods from an average one metre sea-level rise, which is forecast if emissions rise 4C–6C above pre-industrial levels.

The model does not account for the Netherlands’ extensive flood-prevention measures, although many other countries have not taken such action.

Meanwhile, large areas of Spain, Portugal and France would be grappling with desertification, with the worst-affected zones experiencing a two and half-fold increase in droughts under the worst-case scenario.
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In some areas of central and eastern Europe there is predicted to be a 35% increase in heavy rain events, meaning torrential downpours would be more frequent.

While the climate data has been published before, this is the first time the EU-agency has presented it using detailed maps on one site. Users can zoom in on small areas, for example, to discover that one-third of the London borough of Hammersmith and Fulham could be exposed to flooding by 2071.
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The Copenhagen-based agency hopes the maps will reach decision-makers in governments and EU institutions, who would not usually read a lengthy EEA report on the impact of the climate emergency.
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