[font face=Serif][font size=5]Researchers find building seismic strain in Azerbaijan[/font]
[font size=4]Deformation caused by colliding tectonic plates may threaten Azerbaijani capital, oil supplies to Europe.[/font]

Jennifer Chu, MIT News Office
June 14, 2012

[font size=3]In 1859, a devastating earthquake ripped through what is now central Azerbaijan, destroying the capital city of Shemakha. Damage from the quake was so extensive that the capital was subsequently relocated to Baku, a coastal city on the Caspian Sea. Since then, Baku has grown into a thriving metropolis, fueled by vast offshore oil reserves. Rapid development of the city’s housing, infrastructure and foreign trade has made Azerbaijan one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

But new research shows that the region may be ripe for another devastating earthquake of a magnitude similar to the one that leveled the country’s previous capital in 1859. Scientists at MIT and the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences analyzed more than 10 years’ worth of GPS data from Baku and surrounding regions, discovering a large buildup of tension in the land. This geological deformation could lead to an earthquake, threatening Baku’s population, petroleum reserves and the health of the Caspian Sea.

“It doesn’t take a gigantic earthquake,” says Robert Reilinger, principal research scientist in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). “It just takes bad luck. And this is an area where they can’t afford it. It’s an extremely vulnerable area in terms of the density of the people, the density of oil infrastructure, and the potential environmental impact regionally, not just in Azerbaijan.”

Reilinger and his colleagues have published their findings in the Journal of Natural Hazards.

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