Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumNature Bats Last: We're done
Dr. Guy McPherson is professor emeritus of Natural Resources and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona.
His blog, "Nature Bats Last" focuses on the natural world, with a particular emphasis on the twin sides of our fossil-fuel addiction: global climate change and energy decline. Because these phenomena impact every aspect of life on Earth, specific topics range widely, and include philosophy, evolution, economics, humanity, politics, current events, and many aspects of the human condition.
It's no small wonder that today's blog struck me especially hard.
As I pointed out in this space a few years ago, I concluded in 2002 that we had set into motion climate-change processes likely to cause our own extinction by 2030. I mourned for months, to the bewilderment of the three people who noticed. And then, shortly thereafter, I was elated to learn about a hail-Mary pass that just might allow our persistence for a few more generations: Peak oil and its economic consequences might bring the industrial economy to an overdue close, just in time. Like Pandora with her vessel, I retained hope.
No more. Stick a fork in us. We’re done, broiled beyond hope wishful thinking. It seems we’ve experienced a lethal combination of too much cheap oil and too little wisdom. Yet again, I’ve begun mourning. It’s no easier the second time.
We also know that the situation is far worse than indicated by recent data and models (which are reviewed in the following paragraphs). We’ve known for more than a decade what happens when the planes stop flying: Because particulates were removed when airplanes were grounded, Earth warmed by more than 1 C in the three days following 11 September 2001. In other words, Earth’s temperature is already about 2 C higher than the industrial-revolution baseline. And because of positive feedbacks, 2 C leads directly and rapidly to 6 C, acidification-induced death of the world’s oceans, and the near-term demise of Homo sapiens. We can’t live without life-filled oceans, home to the tiny organisms that generate half the planet’s oxygen while comprising the base of the global food chain (contrary to the common belief that Wal-Mart forms the base of the food chain). So much for the wisdom of the self-proclaimed wise ape.
I’ve detailed the increasingly dire assessments. And I’ve explained how we’ve pulled the trigger on five positive-feedback events at lower global average temperature than expected, while also pointing out that any one of these five phenomena likely leads to near-term human extinction. None of these positive-feedback events were expected by scientists until we exceed 2 C warming above the pre-industrial baseline.
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hunter
(38,326 posts)Our stockpile of nuclear weapons ought to do it... and the earth will cool off in no time.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)But when people were seriously fielding the notion of filling our upper atmosphere with a sulfur-dust sunscreen?
phantom power
(25,966 posts)
drokhole
(1,230 posts)Speck Tater
(10,618 posts)Quote: "This process of methane release will accelerate exponentially, release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere and lead to the demise of all life on earth before the middle of this century."
"All life on earth"? Come on. Get serious. I'm sure there will be a few life forms like slime mold and algae that survive, and possibly even some cockroaches. So claiming that all life will be wiped out is an obvious exaggeration.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Personally, I think, since i quit getting depressed about GW at least, that there will be an adaptation by more than a few humans to the coming changes.
Parts of the oceans are quite hot and they still hold the little buggers that make oxygen. And if there really is a Gaia, and it wants life to keep on trucking, it will roll with the changes.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)I'll cut him a little slack on that one though. When one has a deep realization that leads to deep grief the tendency to absolutist expressions is natural. However, I do think we're at the entry to a bottleneck event for humanity, and that Guy's perceptions are correct at least that far, if not somewhat further.
It's also eerie how closely this blog of Guy's coincides in both time and awareness-space with George Mobus' blog from a scant three days ago. The noosphere is in ferment...
Hestia
(3,818 posts)Now, back to the article. Holy Shit! We have had our warmest spring on record, and are already at 100 degree days and below average rainfall. I keep telling my DH that we need to move north where the rains are, but the nasty conservative pukes live too. This will take several readings, and rereadings.
What do we do? Party like it's 2100? Last one out turns out the lights?
LiberalLoner
(9,762 posts)No worries for retirement! A silver lining to every cloud.
Now wouldn't it be something if Montana saved the day? Home of the disgusting GOP outhouse protest but with a redeeming sulfur belch that saves the earth.
DCKit
(18,541 posts)they also fell by 2 degrees C (more) at night, because we didn't have that blanket over us.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)The answer is simple. But the planes still stream out of every airport, to fly tourists around. Cars still frivolously drive. And even if not frivolous, they drive as the result of an irresponsible life designed around the car. People continue having children.
And saying that we're addicted to oil is making an understatement. We are dependent upon oil. Far worse than addiction.
There are no symptoms. We cannot even come to an agreement on whether or not there is a problem. These two things alone are huge problems.
I've seen the cars backed up for a mile at the gas station here when the power goes out. It's like an instant panic when people think they might not have fuel for their cars. I doubt many people see what the significance of this really is. It means we're already in emergency mode even while we're warm and comfortable and well fed. It's no different than that drunk who just can't stop. They'd rather die, and compromise the future generations, than be responsible.
