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Here's a thing: (Original Post) phantom power Sep 2012 OP
Nice polynya just to the right of the pole, too. Systematic Chaos Sep 2012 #1
I noticed that today too. Unreal. emmadoggy Sep 2012 #2
The ice is recovering! XemaSab Sep 2012 #3
I can see it now. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #4
And by way of comparison: XemaSab Sep 2012 #5
This message was self-deleted by its author GliderGuider Sep 2012 #6
And by way of comparison: I have a question??? CRH Sep 2012 #7
Yes, I see those very slight variations in coloration too. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #8
Hi GG, I'm not well versed in the technology that makes the display possible. CRH Sep 2012 #11
They look identical to me, and they would be since they're computer generated. phantom power Sep 2012 #9
Yes, all that 60% red slush, ... CRH Sep 2012 #10
It also makes the pack more vulnerable to breakup from winter storms GliderGuider Sep 2012 #12
Birth of dragons indeed, ... CRH Sep 2012 #13
Or monster jelly fish pscot Sep 2012 #40
The center cannot hold. NickB79 Sep 2012 #14
btw, I can practically see the guys designing the cryosat orbit, back when... phantom power Sep 2012 #15
Word XemaSab Sep 2012 #16
Why should such a sad point make me laugh? Nihil Sep 2012 #17
soooo much red - wtf? phantom power Sep 2012 #18
I posted a thread with a photo of the "pack" yesterday XemaSab Sep 2012 #19
I saw that photo - although I couldn't figure out what I was looking at phantom power Sep 2012 #20
It's basically oriented the same as the CT photo XemaSab Sep 2012 #21
For anyone without a huge monitor, I recommend the 4km pixel version muriel_volestrangler Sep 2012 #45
Lordy, I just saw today's pic. What a change in a few days! nt GliderGuider Sep 2012 #22
drift vectors have looked about like this for several days: phantom power Sep 2012 #23
If I thought there was going to be another month of melting XemaSab Sep 2012 #24
I wouldn't bet against you phantom power Sep 2012 #27
I think if a large cavitation occurs, next year is plausible, ... CRH Sep 2012 #29
are there any up to date plots on multi-year ice? it must be really low phantom power Sep 2012 #30
What pic are you referring to, link please. n/t CRH Sep 2012 #25
The one in the OP GliderGuider Sep 2012 #26
Maybe the time on my computer is off, because today is Sept 12... CRH Sep 2012 #31
It always shows the picture from the day before as the "current" picture XemaSab Sep 2012 #32
Thank you, XemaSab, I had figured that after I had read and endured gg's arrogance, ... CRH Sep 2012 #33
I'm really sorry I came across like that. I didn't mean to. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #34
Thank you, I'm the same way in my garden when others are needed... CRH Sep 2012 #36
By way of apology, here's the comparison I was talking about. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #35
If the colors are credible, that is an incredible difference. CRH Sep 2012 #37
As far as I can tell, this is as real as a heart attack. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #38
I sadly agree, The loss of Ice is tantamount to redefining all we know of climate, ... CRH Sep 2012 #39
The Arctic Basin Sea Ice anomaly has dropped right out the bottom of the chart... GliderGuider Sep 2012 #28
Holy shit. The change just from Monday to Wednesday emmadoggy Sep 2012 #41
New record today XemaSab Sep 2012 #42
Looks like a third to maybe half of the "polar circle" has hit +/- 60% hatrack Sep 2012 #43
Eleven more days of 24 hour sun, at Arctic circle. n/t CRH Sep 2012 #44
The comparison by GG actually made me tear up last night. FedUpWithIt All Sep 2012 #46
Anybody know the lag time/update cycle for PIOMAS hatrack Sep 2012 #47
I think it typically updates once a month XemaSab Sep 2012 #48
And down she goes.. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #49
This is crazy. joshcryer Sep 2012 #51
Maybe? XemaSab Sep 2012 #52
Heh, that was a play on Call Me Maybe. I suck. joshcryer Sep 2012 #55
Looks like the rising heat budget has decisively won, ... CRH Sep 2012 #50
2015-2016 at the earliest, I would suspect. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #53
And our luck has been SO good lately... GliderGuider Sep 2012 #54
Can't help but strongly disagree with the title. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #56
Sorry, I should have added a sarcasm tag. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #57
The Capitulation of the Ice GliderGuider Sep 2012 #58
The difference from day to day of the graphic is incredible, ... CRH Sep 2012 #59
9/17 Update - Now appears that about 80% of the Pseudo-Foveated Circle is red hatrack Sep 2012 #60
Yes, fascinating. GliderGuider Sep 2012 #61
 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
4. I can see it now.
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 01:10 AM
Sep 2012

Warming is good for the Earth!

Humans can't change or fix the climate, because God said so!

Green living is a Zionist/Masonic/Illuminati conspiracy!

There is no such thing as excess Co2!

It sucks, but some people really are naive enough to believe that we can't change the climate.....if the poles are melting, in their minds, it's because God made it so and not only can we not do anything, but it's a sin to try to make things better because that would be elevating ourselves above the Lord Almighty.....no shit, I really have come across people who do truly believe this crap. And what makes things even worse is that the denialists, religious fanatics or otherwise, have billions of dollars backing them.....aka, the Koch Bros., Exxon, etc.

Response to XemaSab (Reply #5)

CRH

(1,553 posts)
7. And by way of comparison: I have a question???
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:43 AM
Sep 2012

There are two colored measurements of a satellite view of earth taken five years apart. The most recent, 09/08/2012, the surrounding outer space is slightly darker and the oceans appear a darker blue/black. Does anyone else see this, or is my imagination too fertile, eyesight poor, my position non static in front of my monitor, or perhaps a variation in my screen?

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
8. Yes, I see those very slight variations in coloration too.
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:49 AM
Sep 2012

I think the fake star fields are different as well.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
11. Hi GG, I'm not well versed in the technology that makes the display possible.
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:06 PM
Sep 2012

Therefore the fake background star fields make it more clear that these thermal models themselves could vary as well. Thanks for the clarification.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
10. Yes, all that 60% red slush, ...
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:59 AM
Sep 2012

forming in the middle of what used to be dark purple is ominous. When the center portion of a solid old ice pack turns slushy and essentially fails at the location one would expect the most thickness, it leads me to believe the forces are more than atmospheric heat and perhaps water temperature below the ice flow will no longer support the ice density. That makes the summer of 2016 ice free arctic scenario, seem very plausible.

I shudder to think of the effects this collapse will have of jet streams and ocean currents all over the globe. If people think the weather is unpredictable and extreme now, wait for 2015 - 2020.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
12. It also makes the pack more vulnerable to breakup from winter storms
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:15 PM
Sep 2012

We are watching the birth of dragons.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
13. Birth of dragons indeed, ...
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:41 PM
Sep 2012

What is happening now is the kind of stuff disaster and calamity driven sci fi movies were made of. Now, pull up a chair, free admission, the price has been paid with your future.

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
15. btw, I can practically see the guys designing the cryosat orbit, back when...
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 02:57 PM
Sep 2012

"you know, we can save propellant by using an orbit that reduces coverage near the pole - and really, how much coverage do we need, it's frozen solid up there, what's to measure?"

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
20. I saw that photo - although I couldn't figure out what I was looking at
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 11:48 AM
Sep 2012

that is, what was the location, and the scale

XemaSab

(60,212 posts)
21. It's basically oriented the same as the CT photo
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 12:21 PM
Sep 2012
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012251.terra.1km

Starting at the upper left, there's the Queen Charlotte Islands off the coast of BC.

Then going down you can see Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake. "Below" that is the bay south of Victoria Island. Then on the far left I think that's the northern part of Hudson Bay. Then almost at the bottom there's the southern tip of Greenland.

Heading slightly to the right there's Iceland, with what I believe is a cloudy Scandinavia further along.

Back up about half an inch down from the top and near the center is Alaska followed by a coast with some long barrier islands, and that's the Siberian coast on the Chukchi Sea.

There aren't a lot of features on the right, but I think the islands with the oddly round snow on them are the October Revolution Islands.

Then in the dead middle the spot where all the images come together *I think* is the pole.

It's so cloudy it's hard to get a good look at the "pack," but from what I can see it's a shattered mess.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,316 posts)
45. For anyone without a huge monitor, I recommend the 4km pixel version
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 11:09 AM
Sep 2012

for orientation:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012251.terra.4km

for which a reasonable amount will fit on the screen at once. Greenland and its ice cap is the large continuous white section near the bottom left (and you can just see Iceland below it, Baffin Island to the left, and Ellesmere Island just above it). And it does make sense the point at which the 'wedges' of separate images come together would be the North Pole.

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
23. drift vectors have looked about like this for several days:
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 02:58 PM
Sep 2012

more or less consistently pushing away from Greenland:


XemaSab

(60,212 posts)
24. If I thought there was going to be another month of melting
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 03:43 PM
Sep 2012

I would predict a minimum at or near 1.

Such as it is, I think next year is going to be THE year. Yeah, there's going to be some ice left, but it's not going to be much, oh no. And all the pundits are going to be like "No one could have predicted this!"

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
27. I wouldn't bet against you
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 03:55 PM
Sep 2012

unless losing meant I got had to drink something offensively bitter and alcoholic

CRH

(1,553 posts)
29. I think if a large cavitation occurs, next year is plausible, ...
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 04:00 PM
Sep 2012

when the center is slush, how much time is there before pieces enter New York Harbor, and while listing against madam liberty, provoke a whimpering siren of 'see I told you so'.

edit: deleted a word

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
26. The one in the OP
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 03:53 PM
Sep 2012

It updates each day, every time a new one is posted on the originating web site. "Today's picture" is dated September 11. If you read this post tomorrow, it will be dated September 12. Simple, no?

CRH

(1,553 posts)
31. Maybe the time on my computer is off, because today is Sept 12...
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 04:11 PM
Sep 2012

Must not be that simple. So your comment pertained to the change in twenty four hours, between these pictures?

CRH

(1,553 posts)
33. Thank you, XemaSab, I had figured that after I had read and endured gg's arrogance, ...
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 04:24 PM
Sep 2012

I would still be interested in his posting a visual comparison of the two days, if he is not shooting from the lip, or he commented before he studied the pic in the original post.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
34. I'm really sorry I came across like that. I didn't mean to.
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 05:40 PM
Sep 2012

I was at work, in a rush and trying to be helpful and cute at the same time. Bad combo. I've also been looking at those images for so long that much of the information about how they work is second nature, so I don't slow down enough to explain them properly - in this case I missed explaining that the date on the most recent image is always yesterday's date.

Please accept my apology. I'll try and be more helpful and less flip in the future.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
36. Thank you, I'm the same way in my garden when others are needed...
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 07:24 PM
Sep 2012

I think we are more alike than apart. Peace. hrh.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
35. By way of apology, here's the comparison I was talking about.
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 06:13 PM
Sep 2012


In three days the red shade denoting 60% coverage chewed the heart out of the purple area denoting dense (80%+) ice.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
37. If the colors are credible, that is an incredible difference.
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 07:36 PM
Sep 2012

If what is apparent in less than a week of pictures, is reality, the ice pack is breaking up, now. The next couple of years will define our strife.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
38. As far as I can tell, this is as real as a heart attack.
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 07:44 PM
Sep 2012

The next two or three years are going to have some intense moments. What worries me most is that the loss of arctic ice really is the driver behind the American and Russian droughts, the weakened Indian monsoon, and the soggy British summer. If that's true, then the rise in world food prices is just beginning - it would tend to just get worse from here on.

I'm glad you garden. I suspect we're all going to need to learn how in very short order.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
39. I sadly agree, The loss of Ice is tantamount to redefining all we know of climate, ...
Wed Sep 12, 2012, 08:44 PM
Sep 2012

It becomes a new game always evolving to the unexpected, from the thought to be, historical normal. We try to describe what will be, with what was, but isn't. What many don't realize, is this is a new frontier, of the unknown, an no one can define the answers to evolving dilemmas.

PS. Gardening is the postscript, to all that was thought to be important, it is the essence, of survival. Hands in the earth reap the reward of labor. It is not a figment of electronic patter, but rather a reunion with what we are borne, Nature,. Thank You. Bye

updated without change:hrh

hatrack

(59,586 posts)
43. Looks like a third to maybe half of the "polar circle" has hit +/- 60%
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 09:06 AM
Sep 2012

And that's just been in the past few days.

FedUpWithIt All

(4,442 posts)
46. The comparison by GG actually made me tear up last night.
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 02:52 PM
Sep 2012

It's a profound thing to be a witness to this. I've been having a hard time shaking the goosebumps. Not sure if it is fear or awe.

hatrack

(59,586 posts)
47. Anybody know the lag time/update cycle for PIOMAS
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 04:11 PM
Sep 2012

Just checked, and the data were for 2 September.

Thanks!

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
49. And down she goes..
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 07:49 AM
Sep 2012

2.2398 today. And the purple keeps fading to red...

That angry red could even chew out the North Pole over the weekend.

CRH

(1,553 posts)
50. Looks like the rising heat budget has decisively won, ...
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 10:06 AM
Sep 2012

With the grand majority of an ice pack below the water surface, the rising water temperature is not going to allow the survival of old ice. The predictions of two weeks ago of the Arctic summer free of ice near 2016, now seems outdated. Me thinks much sooner.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
53. 2015-2016 at the earliest, I would suspect.
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 05:58 PM
Sep 2012

As bad as things have gotten, it's still going to have to take extraordinary circumstances, and probably extraordinary amounts of shitty luck as well, for it to happen any earlier.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
54. And our luck has been SO good lately...
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 07:32 PM
Sep 2012

And fortunately the circumstances have been so ordinary, too...

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
56. Can't help but strongly disagree with the title.
Sat Sep 15, 2012, 05:18 AM
Sep 2012

And how, in your view, have the circumstances been ordinary?

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
57. Sorry, I should have added a sarcasm tag.
Sat Sep 15, 2012, 05:50 AM
Sep 2012

Our luck sucks, and the circumstances have been anything but ordinary, which is why XemaSab's law will apply here: "Faster than expected", by anybody - including us.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
58. The Capitulation of the Ice
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 07:45 AM
Sep 2012

To get a good feel for the capitulation of the ice cap at the end of the season, run the 30-day animation at
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.1.html (Java required).

Watch the end of the season, from about September 5 on. To get a good look, stop the animation and go frame by frame.

The theme of the year seems to be: "I've never seen anything like this!"

CRH

(1,553 posts)
59. The difference from day to day of the graphic is incredible, ...
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 09:33 AM
Sep 2012

Viewing this animation it is immediately apparent the there are many forces sending this graphic in different directions at different locations on different days.

The obvious factors determining the changes are water temperatures, water and air currents, air temperatures, full sun / overcast conditions, ice movements, pressure anomalies and many things we aren't aware of; so it is hard to weigh significance to a period of a day or a week.

As the differences are great between Sept. 5 to present, it is equally different from August 20 - August 25. The colors representing the ice density are flying all over the place from dark purple to red, from one location to the next, sometimes in just the passing of two or three days.

View the north coast of Greenland in each of the thirty days of this animation, one day you think it won't recover from red a week later it is dark purple.

About the only short term conclusion I can make from this animation is the ice pack is very very unstable.

edit; spelling


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