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FBaggins

(26,757 posts)
Sun Jan 13, 2013, 08:19 PM Jan 2013

Like We've Been Saying -- Radiation Is Not A Big Deal

A very big report came out last month with very little fanfare. It concluded what we in nuclear science have been saying for decades – radiation doses less than about 10 rem (0.1 Sv) are no big deal. The linear no-threshold dose hypothesis (LNT) does not apply to doses less than 10 rem (0.1 Sv), which is the region encompassing background levels around the world, and is the region of most importance to nuclear energy, most medical procedures and most areas affected by accidents like Fukushima. The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) (UNSCEAR 2012) submitted the report that, among other things, states that uncertainties at low doses are such that UNSCEAR “does not recommend multiplying low doses by large numbers of individuals to estimate numbers of radiation-induced health effects within a population exposed to incremental doses at levels equivalent to or below natural background levels.” You know, like everyone’s been doing since Chernobyl. Like everyone’s still doing with Fukushima.

Finally, the world may come to its senses and not waste time on the things that aren’t hurting us and spend time on the things that are. And on the people that are in real need. Like the infrastructure and economic destruction wrought by the tsunami, like cleaning up the actual hot spots around Fukushima, like caring for the tens of thousands of Japanese living in fear of radiation levels so low that the fear itself is the only thing that is hurting them, like seriously preparing to restart their nuclear fleet and listening to the IAEA and the U.S. when we suggest improvements.

The advice on radiation in this report will clarify what can, and cannot, be said about low dose radiation health effects on individuals and large populations. Background doses going from 250 mrem (2.5 mSv) to 350 mrem (3.5 mSv) will not raise cancer rates or have any discernable effects on public health. Likewise, background doses going from 250 mrem (2.5 mSv) to 100 mrem (1 mSv) will not decrease cancer rates or effect any other public health issue.

Note – although most discussions are for acute doses (all at once) the same amount as a chronic dose (metered out over a longer time period like a year) is even less effecting. So 10 rem (0.1 Sv) per year, either as acute or chronic, has no effect, while 10 rem per month might.

UNSCEAR also found no observable health effects from last year’s nuclear accident in Fukushima. No effects.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2013/01/11/like-weve-been-saying-radiation-is-not-a-big-deal/
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Like We've Been Saying -- Radiation Is Not A Big Deal (Original Post) FBaggins Jan 2013 OP
Surprise, surprise, no immediate effects from low levels of radiation. iemitsu Jan 2013 #1
WRONG!!!! WRONG!!! WRONG!!! PamW Jan 2013 #10
Excellent response dbackjon Jan 2013 #14
The last paragraph - RC Jan 2013 #2
Allow me to interpret. Soundman Jan 2013 #3
The nuke industry pees in all our pools Generic Other Jan 2013 #4
No mention either Joe Shlabotnik Jan 2013 #5
That's because there's nothing new there FBaggins Jan 2013 #9
crap study waddirum Jan 2013 #6
Just making it up as you go along? FBaggins Jan 2013 #8
WRONG!!!! WRONG!!! WRONG!!! PamW Jan 2013 #11
Of course the media (particularly in Japan) doesn't help with this. FBaggins Jan 2013 #13
recommend phantom power Jan 2013 #7
Just wait...10,000 years from now we'll see who was right. wtmusic Jan 2013 #12
The full UNSCEAR report is online caraher Jan 2013 #15
K/R (nt) NYC_SKP Jan 2013 #16

iemitsu

(3,888 posts)
1. Surprise, surprise, no immediate effects from low levels of radiation.
Sun Jan 13, 2013, 08:37 PM
Jan 2013

This news changes nothing. It is the same assurance that the nuclear industry has depended on all along. Cancers develop over long periods of time and are therefore difficult to pin on any given source. The nuclear industry is not the only industry depending on time to mask the ills they cause.
The article doesn't make me one bit more comfortable with nuclear power than I was before.
I see this as a desperate last attempt of an expensive and dangerous source of power to revive an interest in nukes. The energy created by these nukes will never equal the cost of storing the spent fuel rods. They are a blight on the planet and need to be closed and cleaned up.

PamW

(1,825 posts)
10. WRONG!!!! WRONG!!! WRONG!!!
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 11:43 AM
Jan 2013

iemitsu,

NO - this is different. The results here are not "statistical surveys".

Recent science has been able to detect the actual mechanisms of radiation damage, AND the natural mechanism that our cells have to REPAIR any damage.

The USA's national labs like Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; have been working on this for some time.

About a year ago, Lawrence Berkeley published a report in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Science:

http://newscenter.lbl.gov/news-releases/2011/12/20/low-dose-radiation/

“Our data show that at lower doses of ionizing radiation, DNA repair mechanisms work much better than at higher doses,” says Mina Bissell, a world-renowned breast cancer researcher with Berkeley Lab’s Life Sciences Division. “This non-linear DNA damage response casts doubt on the general assumption that any amount of ionizing radiation is harmful and additive.”

Mina Bissel and her colleagues have developed techniques to observe the molecular damage caused by radiation, and they can watch the cell's repair mechanism fix the damage.

The cell's radiation damage repair mechanism is analogous to your immune system. You are surrounded by pathogens ( germs ) all the time. Those germs are NOT benign. Ever see someone that is dying of AIDS? The body is ravished by the disease; it's not pretty. However, it's NOT the AIDS virus that does that damage. The AIDS virus just takes out the immune system. It's the everyday germs that continually surround us that do the damage.

However, we are normally not affected by these germs; at least those of us with healthy immune systems. That's because our immune systems will kill off these everyday pathogens should they attempt to take up residence in our bodies.

Likewise, when radiation causes damage to our DNA, the cell's DNA damage repair mechanism puts the damaged DNA molecule back together; good as new.

This new research means that scientists have ACTUALLY OBSERVED the repair being done. We no longer have to guess and say that we "think", or hypothesize, or hope that a repair was done. NO - now we can ACTUALLY SEE the repair being done, so we can say that there is NO lasting damage if the dose is low enough so that the repair is 100%.

This isn't some "desperate last attempt"; this is GROUNDBREAKING SCIENCE.

If you deny the science; then you are no better than those that deny the climate science. Your choice - be enlightened and embrace the science; or you can be just as bad as the climate deniers.

PamW



 

RC

(25,592 posts)
2. The last paragraph -
Sun Jan 13, 2013, 08:59 PM
Jan 2013
In the end, if we don’t reorient ourselves on what is true about radiation and not on the fear, we will fail the citizens of Japan, Belarus and the Ukraine, and we will continue to spend time and money on the wrong things. I’m sure the anti-nuke ideologues and conspiracy theorists will not accept these U.N. reports, but then…they don’t like the United Nations anyway.
 

Soundman

(297 posts)
3. Allow me to interpret.
Sun Jan 13, 2013, 10:03 PM
Jan 2013

The new soon too be established background levels you will be exposed to from nuclear testing and repeated accidents will have no affect upon you, now move along nothing to see here, well not for a decade or two. Then they will publish a new report stating there was no way they could have known. Wash rinse repeat. There were quite a few people who said this type of report would be forth coming almost two years ago. Nostradamus had nothing on them.

Joe Shlabotnik

(5,604 posts)
5. No mention either
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 02:03 AM
Jan 2013

of the millions of tons of depleted-uranium ammo thats been sprayed around the middle east for 20+ years.

FBaggins

(26,757 posts)
9. That's because there's nothing new there
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 10:48 AM
Jan 2013

UNSCEAR dealt with that nonsense years ago.

Depleted uranium is incredibly dangerous when traveling at up to 2,000 fps...

... but it poses no radiological risk.

BTW - it's actually in the low thousands of tons... not millions of tons.

waddirum

(979 posts)
6. crap study
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 02:38 AM
Jan 2013

that only looks at external radiation dose, and does not attempt to measure the affects of internal/inhaled radiations doses.

Also, this statement indicates what utter bullshit they are dishing:
"UNSCEAR also found no observable health effects from last year’s nuclear accident in Fukushima. No effects."

I don't know how anyone could claim that with a straight face.

FBaggins

(26,757 posts)
8. Just making it up as you go along?
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 10:44 AM
Jan 2013

The study does not "only look at external radiation dose" - Where did you get that idea?

Also, this statement indicates what utter bullshit they are dishing:


Wrong again. It's the same conclusion that the WHO came to as well as the University of Tokyo. In fact it's exactly what scientists have been expecting since reasonably valid measurements have been coming out of Japan... the measured doses simply don't rise to the level that has ever been associated with a measurable increase risk.

At the time of the accident, there were a few of us who thought that there could be enough of a thyroid dose to a large enough population that a statistically significant (though small) increase in thyroid cancers might occur in a few years, but now even that appears questionable. A combination of fortune/planning with prevailing winds, evacuations, and iodine therapy seem to have limited thyroid doses... but we won't know for certain for a few more years.

PamW

(1,825 posts)
11. WRONG!!!! WRONG!!! WRONG!!!
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 11:58 AM
Jan 2013
that only looks at external radiation dose, and does not attempt to measure the affects of internal/inhaled radiations doses.

wadirum,

This is WRONG!!! Actually there is really no difference between "external radiation" and "internal radiation".

As far as damage; it really doesn't matter where the radiation starts out, as long as you account for the possible attenuation in getting into the body.

Suppose I have an "internal" radiation source that emits a 1.2 MeV gamma ray.

Now suppose I have an "external" radiation source that emits a larger amount of 1.5 MeV gamma rays that are heading for the body. Those gammas are attenuated, and are Compton downscattered in energy so that when they get inside the body, they are 1.2 MeV gamma rays with the same intensity as those emitted by the internal absorber. So from there on out; there's really no physical difference. The equivalent amounts of 1.2 MeV gamma rays will do equivalent damage, independent of whether they started out as "external" or "internal".

As long as one accounts properly for attenuation, and the additional dose due to the energy deposition of that attenuation ( which we DO ); then there really is no reason to make this "artificial" difference between "internal" and "external" radiation.

One thing that many people don't understand about "internal" radiation is that when we quote a dose for an internally absorbed radioactive material; we cite a "committed dose". That means we sum up all the radiation damage over the complete time it takes for the radioactive material to decay. Some people think that "internal" radiation is worse because it goes on over time. That effect has already been accounted for when the dose for internally absorbed material is calculated. If you absorb 0.1 mSv of Iodine-131; it takes about 4 months for that I-131 to "completely" decay, and the quoted 0.1 mSv dose is the SUM TOTAL of all the radiation damage over the entire 4 months.

PamW




FBaggins

(26,757 posts)
13. Of course the media (particularly in Japan) doesn't help with this.
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 12:09 PM
Jan 2013

Citing activity and/or exposure levels with effective dose units just confuses things.

caraher

(6,279 posts)
15. The full UNSCEAR report is online
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 09:37 PM
Jan 2013

It's simply their 2012 annual report to the UN General Assembly (A/67/46). There's no earth-shattering new science in there, just an assessment of recent research and some recommendations.

While UNSCEAR does caution against estimating risks by multiplying low doses by the exposed population, in most instances where this is done the result does provide an upper limit on the likely harm and usually predicts negligible effects anyway. Authors like Richard Muller use this kind of estimate routinely to give a sense of the scale of risk, and I don't think there's much harm in doing so provided one is clear that there are enormous uncertainties involved, and that such rough-and-ready calculations ultimately cannot substitute for serious epidemiological analysis.

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