Renewables Continue to Outpace Conservative Global Projections

The IEA now says renewables will overtake gas by 2016.


STEPHEN LACEY: JULY 1, 2013
The International Energy Agency is out with its latest medium-term outlook for global renewables. And once again, projections for installation and energy production have been revised upward.

According to the IEA's analysis, renewable electricity will surpass output from natural gas and double generation from nuclear by 2016, becoming the second-most important source of electricity behind coal.

Those projections for generation are 90 terawatt-hours higher than last year's medium-term renewable energy market report. The IEA now says that renewable electricity will make up one quarter of gross power generation in 2018, with non-hydro renewables accounting for 8 percent by that date.



Although the IEA has always been outspoken about the need to deploy more low-carbon technologies and address climate change, the organization has been known for its conservative analysis about the future growth of renewables.

For example, in 2003, it projected that non-hydro renewables would only represent 4 percent of global generation by 2030 under an aggressive policy scenario. But the industry hit that threshold in 2011 -- nearly twenty years early....

FERC chair on new nuclear and coal plants: “We may not need any, ever.”
By Joe Romm on Apr 22, 2009 at 4:36 pm

The chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Jon Wellinghoff, said today of new coal and nuclear plants, “We may not need any, ever.” Greenwire (subs. req’d) reported his remarks at a U.S. Energy Association forum:
“

I think [new nuclear expansion] is kind of a theoretical question, because I don’t see anybody building these things, I don’t see anybody having one under construction,” Wellington said.
Building nuclear plants is cost-prohibitive, he said, adding that the last price he saw was more than $7,000 a kilowatt — more expensive than solar energy. “Until costs get to some reasonable cost, I don’t think anybody’s going to [talk] that seriously,” he said. “Coal plants are sort of in the same boat, they’re not quite as expensive.”

Between energy efficiency and demand response and wind and concentrated solar power (CSP) and biomass and even new hydro (blog post forthcoming) and natural gas — all of which Wellinghoff discussed (see below) – we certainly have more than enough capacity to deliver as much low carbon and no-carbon power as we need whenever and wherever it is needed: (see “Intro to the core climate solutions” and “If Obama stops dirty coal, as he must, what will replace it? Part 1” and “Part 2: An intro to biomass cofiring“). And that’s not even counting cogeneration/recycled energy and geothermal.

Nuclear is indeed wildly expensive, more expensive than the best solar today (see “Exclusive analysis, Part 1: The staggering cost of new nuclear power” and “The Self-Limiting Future of Nuclear Power.”). And new dirty coal is climate destroying and likely to be increasingly viewed as unfinanceable.
Wellinghof is a key climate and clean energy pick by Obama....