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wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 04:34 AM Jul 2013

TIME: Nuclear Energy Is Largely Safe. But Can It Be Cheap?

[div style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;"]"Is it safe? That’s what most people — brought up on Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and The Simpsons — want to know about nuclear power. And for the most part, the answer is yes. Accidents are rare, and those that have occurred — including the partial meltdown in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 — have resulted in few deaths. On a megawatt-per-megawatt basis, nuclear kills fewer people than almost any other source of electricity — especially compared with air pollution from coal, the single biggest supplier of electricity in the U.S., which contributes to the deaths of 14,000 Americans each year. And nuclear energy, unlike every other form of electricity — save hydro and renewables, doesn’t contribute to man-made climate change.

<>

The key, suggests the Breakthrough Institute in a new report, is the development of entirely new reactor designs, ones that can employ modular, mass-produced components with inherent safety characteristics that eliminate the need for the expensive backup systems that have helped inflate the costs of new plants in the past. (One of the think tank’s co-founders, Michael Shellenberger, appears in a new pronuclear documentary, Pandora’s Promise — I reviewed it here.) Current nuclear designs require — correctly — layer after layer of backups and safety systems to prevent meltdown in the event of a loss of power. (We call it a meltdown for a reason — if a current nuclear plant loses power, as the Fukushima Daiichi plant did after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, it can lose the ability to control the escalating temperature of nuclear fuel, which can lead to explosions and the release of radioactivity.) That means battery-powered backup systems and other fail-safes, all of which add to the bill. Reactors with passive safety systems are likely to be cheaper — as well as safer, since there would be no need to worry if power couldn’t be restored to the plant quickly in the event of disaster.

<>

According to statistics from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, between 1993 and 2002, carbon-free sources — meaning nuclear, hydro and renewables — made up 19% of total increase in global energy consumption. Between 2003 and ’12, as the rate of global energy consumption doubled, carbon-free sources made up only 14% of that increase. (Hat tip to Roger Pielke Jr. for pointing out these trends.) Despite the very rapid increases in renewables like wind and solar over the past decade — albeit from a very tiny beginning — we are losing the war to decarbonize our energy supply. I think nuclear can play a significant role in decarbonization, but it will only happen if atomic power isn’t expensive — all the more so given that most of the increase in global energy consumption will be coming in developing countries that are especially price sensitive. Pass the molten salt."

http://science.time.com/2013/07/08/nuclear-energy-is-largely-safe-but-can-it-be-cheap/

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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TIME: Nuclear Energy Is Largely Safe. But Can It Be Cheap? (Original Post) wtmusic Jul 2013 OP
Nuclear energy "safe" darkangel218 Jul 2013 #1
My thoughts exactly davidpdx Jul 2013 #3
BP Statistical Review of World Energy? davidpdx Jul 2013 #2
Ooh scary picture. wtmusic Jul 2013 #7
The author seemed to go out of his way to point out the lack of deaths davidpdx Jul 2013 #14
Some people will die of cancer; probably very few. wtmusic Jul 2013 #15
2,000 employees at high risk for thyroid cancer davidpdx Jul 2013 #18
Thyroid cancer is 95% curable wtmusic Jul 2013 #20
Safe until it isn't, and then wildly unsafe. Not cheap, so lets get rid of back up systems and Warren Stupidity Jul 2013 #4
No, to make this stuff up requires... kristopher Jul 2013 #5
Typical antinuke kneejerk. wtmusic Jul 2013 #6
yes I understand your agenda. Warren Stupidity Jul 2013 #11
Cost, Safety and Development Time One_Life_To_Give Jul 2013 #8
"Always safe"? wtmusic Jul 2013 #9
We have a practical, proven 0 carbon energy solution and it isn't nuclear kristopher Jul 2013 #10
If it was practical and proven... there wouldn't be a problem. FBaggins Jul 2013 #12
Renewables are both practical and proven kristopher Jul 2013 #13
Because it makes SENSE PamW Jul 2013 #16
It only makes sense to phissionophiles kristopher Jul 2013 #17
Are you saying that Utilities won't or can't deal with the varibility of solar or wind? Finishline42 Jul 2013 #19

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
3. My thoughts exactly
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 05:49 AM
Jul 2013

Here in Korea they had to shut some of the plants down as they found parts that were fake components. Right now two plants are shutdown in Korea and two are offline.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
14. The author seemed to go out of his way to point out the lack of deaths
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 08:40 PM
Jul 2013

But I see nothing about the environmental or health problems especially when it comes to Fukishima (although he did mention the clean
up price). How long will it be before those people go back to their home towns? How many will die of radiation poisoning in the long run?

I think there is more risk then those who are pro nuke let on. There is not only the technology, but human error. Then you build plants on the coast of a country susceptible to earthquakes and tsunamis.

Yes, I do have a problem with the source. BP is one of the largest polluters in the world. If you want to over look that, good for you. You could also try not being a dick.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
15. Some people will die of cancer; probably very few.
Sat Jul 20, 2013, 02:52 PM
Jul 2013

"28 February 2013 | GENEVA - A comprehensive assessment by international experts on the health risks associated with the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) disaster in Japan has concluded that, for the general population inside and outside of Japan, the predicted risks are low and no observable increases in cancer rates above baseline rates are anticipated.

The WHO report ‘Health Risk Assessment from the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami based on preliminary dose estimation’ noted, however, that the estimated risk for specific cancers in certain subsets of the population in Fukushima Prefecture has increased and, as such, it calls for long term continued monitoring and health screening for those people.

Experts estimated risks in the general population in Fukushima Prefecture, the rest of Japan and the rest of the world, plus the power plant and emergency workers that may have been exposed during the emergency phase response."

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2013/fukushima_report_20130228/en/index.html

In contrast, 14,000 people die from the effects of coal smoke in U.S. every year.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
18. 2,000 employees at high risk for thyroid cancer
Sat Jul 20, 2013, 06:45 PM
Jul 2013

These are just the ones we know about:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014542954


You may not see people drop dead quickly like if an atomic bomb had been dropped, but there will be a slow long lasting effect.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
20. Thyroid cancer is 95% curable
Sat Jul 20, 2013, 08:08 PM
Jul 2013

so statistically speaking it might result in 100 deaths. Are 100 deaths significant? Of course they are, especially if it's you or someone in your family.

Are they as significant as the roughly 40,000 people who have died since Fukushima, in the United States alone, due to coal smoke? Not even close. Are they as significant as the 25-30,000 who die every year from the effects of climate change, which nuclear energy has a unique potential for addressing?

What's missing from the nuclear energy debate is perspective, largely as a result of misinformation promulgated by those with a poor understanding of the real risks involved.

Btw, people don't die from cancer any quicker if a bomb is dropped than if they're exposed in other ways (except for leukemia, radiation-induced cancer will take roughly ten years to develop regardless of the source). Most Hiroshima casualties were the result of radiation sickness or flash effects (burns, etc). What percentage of Hiroshima survivors went on to develop cancers from the bomb?

Given RERF's fearful origins and the study's scale, its findings can seem confounding in their modesty, especially this central result: Out of the atomic survivors tracked by RERF -- nearly 100,000 people -- only 853 cases of cancerous tumors, so far, can be attributed to the bombs.

With its youngest members about 66 years old -- A-bomb survivors exposed in the womb are part of a separate study -- the survivors have developed plenty of tumors, about 17,448 cases. But 5 percent of these are attributable to radiation, according to RERF. The number rises to 11 percent when limited to those receiving more than 5 millisieverts (mSv) of radiation, using a common standard. Typically, these survivors received significantly higher doses, with a mean average of 210 mSv; lower, notably, than the total dose allowed to Fukushima's radiation workers.

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2011/04/11/11greenwire-hiroshima-and-nagasaki-cast-long-shadows-over-99849.html?pagewanted=all

Perspective.
 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
4. Safe until it isn't, and then wildly unsafe. Not cheap, so lets get rid of back up systems and
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 06:36 AM
Jul 2013

expensive redundant containment systems.

Clowns couldn't make this shit up.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
5. No, to make this stuff up requires...
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 08:03 AM
Jul 2013

...Rightwing 'think tanks' like the Breakthrough Institute. Greenwashing Gone Wild.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
6. Typical antinuke kneejerk.
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 11:53 AM
Jul 2013

Back up systems aren't needed with MSRs, but of course you didn't read the article.

Wildly unsafe? Got some statistics? (Didn't think so.)

Now run and hide under the bed again.

One_Life_To_Give

(6,036 posts)
8. Cost, Safety and Development Time
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 01:37 PM
Jul 2013

Pick two and the third will fall where it must. Too cheap to meter and always safe will be available when T approaches infinity.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
9. "Always safe"?
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 01:48 PM
Jul 2013

Nuclear is already orders of magnitude safer than any existing baseload energy. Wind is not always safe, nor is solar, and neither are too cheap to meter. So demanding unattainable absolutes is pointless.

Beyond pointless, it's dangerous. Without a practical, proven zero-carbon energy solution an environmental crisis of unimaginable scope is guaranteed.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
10. We have a practical, proven 0 carbon energy solution and it isn't nuclear
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 02:50 PM
Jul 2013
Renewables the Fastest-growing Power Generation Sector, IEA Reports

26 June 2013: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its second annual 'Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013' (MTRMR), which finds that growth of renewables in the electricity sector is on track to meet the IEA's low-carbon energy scenarios through 2018. The report cautions, however, that policy uncertainty is the main risk facing continued growth in the sector.

According to IEA Executive Director, Maria van der Hoeven, “Many renewables no longer require high economic incentives. But they do still need long-term policies that provide a predictable and reliable market and regulatory framework compatible with societal goals."

Despite a fall in new global investment in 2012, the MTRMR predicts that investment opportunities are likely to grow over the medium term. The report anticipates strong growth in the renewable power sector, which is expected to see a 40% growth over the next five years, leading to an increase in the share of renewables in the global power mix from 20% in 2011 to 25% in 2018. The report also predicts that global renewable electricity generation will surpass that of gas and double that of nuclear by 2016.

The two main drivers of the positive outlook for renewable power generation identified in the report are: the acceleration of investment and deployment in emerging markets, where renewables help meet the rising electricity demand while contributing to climate change mitigation; and the increasing cost-competitivness of renewables in a wider set of circumstances...


read more: http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/renewables-the-fastest-growing-power-generation-sector-iea-reports/207793/

The report also predicts that global renewable electricity generation will surpass that of gas and double that of nuclear by 2016.

The report also predicts that global renewable electricity generation will ... double that of nuclear by 2016.

FBaggins

(26,758 posts)
12. If it was practical and proven... there wouldn't be a problem.
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 03:34 PM
Jul 2013

If utilities could meet customer demand reliably for a lower cost... they would do it.

The report also predicts that global renewable electricity generation will surpass that of gas and double that of nuclear by 2016.


And if we exclude the baseload hydro power that has been around for many decades?

Chyea... you didn't think people would notice that one, did you?

The variable renewables that are the subject of the debate will not approach gas or nuclear any time soon.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
13. Renewables are both practical and proven
Fri Jul 19, 2013, 04:54 PM
Jul 2013

What do you think you prove by claiming that hydro isn't a renewable resource and that it shouldn't be counted as part of the mix?

The only purpose that serves is to make propagandists promoting nuclear power feel good; otherwise it is idiotic on its face since the final 100% renewable mix is absolutely going to include hydro - both what is currently tapped and the significant amount of run-of-river still to be tapped.

Why 100% renewables? Because it is inevitable

By Paul Gipe on 18 July 2013

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is inevitable. It will happen whether we take action or not. Fossil fuels are – by definition – finite. They are a one-time gift to humanity. Long before they are physically exhausted, we will have turned away from them toward renewable sources of energy simply on the basis of cost.

The question, then, is do we make this transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy on our own terms, in ways that maximize the benefits to us today and to future generations, or do we turn our heads away and suffer the economic and social shocks that rising prices and market volatility will create—as it has done so often in the past.

Of course, by turning toward the sun and the wind and other renewable sources of energy today we alleviate a host of ills that beset us because we burn an ever increasing amount of fossil fuels. By ultimately eliminating fossil fuels, we also eliminate the air pollution and social disruption caused by their mining, refining, and combustion. We also eliminate the emission of global warming gases as well.

Taking action today – on our own terms – enables us to profit by the energy transition in the present as well as in the future. We create the new industries and new jobs we will need in the future, today. We benefit now while creating a sustainable future for our children and grandchildren.

Fortunately, sources of renewable energy are both more abundant and more equitably distributed around the globe than fossil fuels. There’s more than enough renewable energy to meet our needs today and those of tomorrow..


http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/why-100-renewables-42697

PamW

(1,825 posts)
16. Because it makes SENSE
Sat Jul 20, 2013, 03:44 PM
Jul 2013

kris,

It really DOES make COMPLETE SENSE to consider hydro separate from solar / wind.

Yes - hydro is renewable; but hydro is different from solar / wind in a MAJOR way - it's dispatchable.

That means that with a hydro power station; we can control the throttle. We have a valve that can be adjusted to give more or less power as demand dictates. In that regard, hydro is like the other dispatchable energy sources; coal, gas, and nuclear.

The only reason to include dispatchable hydro in with non-dispatchable solar / wind is if you want to bamboozle someone.

You can show how "renewable" hydro can fit the bill if we had enough of it. That's the "bait"; and then you do the "switch" to claiming that solar / wind can do it all also because they are renewable like hydro.

The reason hydro could run the power grid completely if we had enough of it; is because it is "dispatchable".

The bamboozle comes with the "switch" to solar / wind which are NOT dispatchable; and are not in the same category as hydro.

Hydro can "do it all", not because it is renewable; but because it is "dispatchable".

PamW

Finishline42

(1,091 posts)
19. Are you saying that Utilities won't or can't deal with the varibility of solar or wind?
Sat Jul 20, 2013, 07:18 PM
Jul 2013

Pam,
Are you saying that as the percentage of Solar and Wind systems increase, utilities will be unable to deal with local variability of supply or just won't try to?

Most of the electric power in my neck of the woods is from coal. One of the local PV installers has had a meeting with the utility - they are starting to notice as some customers are dropping their usage to zero. He suggested they could offer their customers the same PV packages and the response was that they still have to amortize existing coal fired plants and couldn't afford to go down that road. Of course they just bought that company in the last couple of years so they may be screwed in a big way if PV gets any cheaper!

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