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Related: About this forumHistory Contradicts the U.S.'s 'All of the Above' Energy Strategy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/history-contradicts-the-u-s-s-all-of-the-above-energy-strategy.htmlI hope you're sitting down. Republicans and Democrats agree on something, at least nominally. It's called an "all of the above" energy policy. That phrase occurs in both White House policy pronouncements and the 2012 Republican platform, meaning basically that the U.S. should pursue all of the energy options favored by whoever's in power. The parties differ on details, but, you know, "details."
Bipartisan agreement is a rare thing, and yet it's still not nearly as rare as the notion of having multiple energy choices in the first place. For 200 years the world burned wood, then coal, then oil. Now toss in gas, nuclear, hydropower and renewable power generated from wind, sun, water and earth. Judging by the projections of Citi Research, above, these options will be with us for some time.
The problem is, while we're basking in glee over all our options, we're overlooking the fact that proponents of each of these power sources are trying to pound each other out of business. Historically, only one dominant energy source emerges as its predecessor falls off a cliff. "We believe it would be naive to ignore the waterfall progression that history suggests is likely," Citi's researchers say in an overview of the global energy market released this month, Energy Darwinism: The Evolution of the Energy Industry.
As a case study, researchers flag Germany, where the 30 gigawatts of solar power built since 2007 have up-ended the country's power mix. Solar generates its peak power when the Sun is highest, particularly in summer; no surprise there. Those hours coincide with peak electricity demand from the grid, when the price is highest. The peak demand now goes to solar production, leaving traditional generators with a lot of capacity they're not using, and a lot of money they're not making.
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History Contradicts the U.S.'s 'All of the Above' Energy Strategy (Original Post)
xchrom
Oct 2013
OP
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)1. Petro will be here until we get batteries to match the energy density of petroleum
So it is "two of the above": gasoline and renewables
kristopher
(29,798 posts)2. k&r w/ link to report
https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/ReportSeries.action Download PDF
ENERGY DARWINISM
The Evolution of the Energy Industry
The global energy industry has been transformed in the last five years in ways and to an extent that few would have thought credible. The emergence of shale gas has transformed the U.S. energy market while Germany has seen some gas-fired power stations running for less than 10 days a year due to the impact of solar leading utility owners to issue profit warnings. Developed markets now spend more on renewable capital expenditures than they do on conventional generation, largely due to uncertainty over commodity pricing and likely future utilisation rates, while the legacy of Fukushima has seen Japan burning gas at $16-17/mmbtu while the U.S. basks in $3 shale, driving the introduction of the worlds most attractive solar subsidy scheme and catapulting Japan to be the worlds second largest solar market. Conversely, the intermittency of renewables has led to the greater demand for the flexibility of gas-fired power plants in some markets.
So, fuel and technology substitution is happening and not just in developed markets. The shift in emerging markets is less marked, but is nonetheless there. The voracious appetite for power displayed by emerging markets will engender a higher level of new conventional generation (in particular coal), though gas is gradually taking demand from coal and renewables are forecast to represent 10% of new installed power generation capacity in China over the next two years.
Despite these shifts, the analysis of individual fuel and technology cost curves a key determinant in setting the market price has continued largely on a standalone basis, with limited emphasis on the risks of substitution. Accordingly, in this report we have combined the work of our alternative energy oil & gas, mining (coal), utility and commodity research teams to create an integrated energy cost curve, which allows us to assess the impact and risks of this substitutional change across all fuel and technology types. Importantly, this integrated curve looks at incremental energy demand and supply, meaning relatively small changes in the mix can have a material impact on the returns of projects, particularly those at the upper end of the cost curve.
To make the comparison easier, we have focused on the power generation market, as this is by far the largest and fastest growing consumer of primary energy with the highest level of substitution risk. To do this, we have used the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) concept which allows us to compare different fuels and technologies on a like-for-like basis. We also examine the different evolutionary pace of the various fuels and technology, in an attempt to assess how this curve itself will evolve. Given the long-term nature of both upstream and consumer projects, these changes could well have a material impact within the life of many of these projects.
This analysis of Energy Darwinism highlights the uncertainties and hence risk inherent in upstream projects at the upper end of the gas cost curve, in the coal industry overall, for utilities and for the power generation equipment manufacturers. These changes and risks will affects investors, developers, owners, products and consumers of energy, which given the sums of money involved, makes it of paramount importance to be understood.
The Evolution of the Energy Industry
The global energy industry has been transformed in the last five years in ways and to an extent that few would have thought credible. The emergence of shale gas has transformed the U.S. energy market while Germany has seen some gas-fired power stations running for less than 10 days a year due to the impact of solar leading utility owners to issue profit warnings. Developed markets now spend more on renewable capital expenditures than they do on conventional generation, largely due to uncertainty over commodity pricing and likely future utilisation rates, while the legacy of Fukushima has seen Japan burning gas at $16-17/mmbtu while the U.S. basks in $3 shale, driving the introduction of the worlds most attractive solar subsidy scheme and catapulting Japan to be the worlds second largest solar market. Conversely, the intermittency of renewables has led to the greater demand for the flexibility of gas-fired power plants in some markets.
So, fuel and technology substitution is happening and not just in developed markets. The shift in emerging markets is less marked, but is nonetheless there. The voracious appetite for power displayed by emerging markets will engender a higher level of new conventional generation (in particular coal), though gas is gradually taking demand from coal and renewables are forecast to represent 10% of new installed power generation capacity in China over the next two years.
Despite these shifts, the analysis of individual fuel and technology cost curves a key determinant in setting the market price has continued largely on a standalone basis, with limited emphasis on the risks of substitution. Accordingly, in this report we have combined the work of our alternative energy oil & gas, mining (coal), utility and commodity research teams to create an integrated energy cost curve, which allows us to assess the impact and risks of this substitutional change across all fuel and technology types. Importantly, this integrated curve looks at incremental energy demand and supply, meaning relatively small changes in the mix can have a material impact on the returns of projects, particularly those at the upper end of the cost curve.
To make the comparison easier, we have focused on the power generation market, as this is by far the largest and fastest growing consumer of primary energy with the highest level of substitution risk. To do this, we have used the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) concept which allows us to compare different fuels and technologies on a like-for-like basis. We also examine the different evolutionary pace of the various fuels and technology, in an attempt to assess how this curve itself will evolve. Given the long-term nature of both upstream and consumer projects, these changes could well have a material impact within the life of many of these projects.
This analysis of Energy Darwinism highlights the uncertainties and hence risk inherent in upstream projects at the upper end of the gas cost curve, in the coal industry overall, for utilities and for the power generation equipment manufacturers. These changes and risks will affects investors, developers, owners, products and consumers of energy, which given the sums of money involved, makes it of paramount importance to be understood.