Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumEarth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036
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Temperatures have been flat for 15 yearsnobody can properly explain it, the Wall Street Journal says. Global warming pause may last for 20 more years, and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, the Daily Mail says. Such reassuring claims about climate abound in the popular media, but they are misleading at best. Global warming continues unabated, and it remains an urgent problem.
The misunderstanding stems from data showing that during the past decade there was a slowing in the rate at which the earth's average surface temperature had been increasing. The event is commonly referred to as the pause, but that is a misnomer: temperatures still rose, just not as fast as during the prior decade. The important question is, What does the short-term slowdown portend for how the world may warm in the future?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with answering such questions. In response to the data, the IPCC in its September 2013 report lowered one aspect of its prediction for future warming. Its forecasts, released every five to seven years, drive climate policy worldwide, so even the small change raised debate over how fast the planet is warming and how much time we have to stop it. The IPCC has not yet weighed in on the impacts of the warming or how to mitigate it, which it will do in reports that were due this March and April. Yet I have done some calculations that I think can answer those questions now: If the world keeps burning fossil fuels at the current rate, it will cross a threshold into environmental ruin by 2036. The faux pause could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossoverbut only a few.
A Sensitive Debate
The dramatic nature of global warming captured world attention in 2001, when the IPCC published a graph that my co-authors and I devised, which became known as the hockey stick. The shaft of the stick, horizontal and sloping gently downward from left to right, indicated only modest changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature for almost 1,000 yearsas far back as our data went. The upturned blade of the stick, at the right, indicated an abrupt and unprecedented rise since the mid-1800s. The graph became a lightning rod in the climate change debate, and I, as a result, reluctantly became a public figure. In its September 2013 report, the IPCC extended the stick back in time, concluding that the recent warming was likely unprecedented for at least 1,400 years.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/?&WT.mc_id=SA_ENGYSUS_20140403
mindwalker_i
(4,407 posts)Republicans will call us "hippies."
And it's just to politically feasible to even talk about it, because it could hurt the oil industry's CEO's bonuses.
Louisiana1976
(3,962 posts)NickB79
(19,253 posts)NickB79
(19,253 posts)A thawing permafrost, releasing gigatons of carbon, would quickly make those numbers look like pie in the sky dreams.
truebrit71
(20,805 posts)...I think that with the continued reduction in Arctic summer ice, as well as accelerated melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice we may well see truly massive "dangerous harm" to human civilization at least a decade earlier than 2036...
I think we're in REAL trouble, right now...
LouisvilleDem
(303 posts)pscot
(21,024 posts)I think the next El Niño will give us a preview that will get everbody's attention.