Forest Service Researchers Project Massive Changes In Minnesota Forests By 2100

DULUTH — Minnesota’s northern forests are expected to look vastly different a century from now — with fewer spruce, tamarack and fir trees and more maple, oak and basswood — due to a warming climate. That’s the finding of a major new study headed by the U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station and released Thursday.

The study took an in-depth look at some 23.5 million acres of forest across northern Minnesota and describes both the effects of climate change that have already been observed as well as projections on what continued warming is expected to do.

The findings, which echo what many scientists already have said, are that trees already at the southern end of their range will do poorly — including balsam fir, aspen, white spruce and tamarack. Tree species at the northern edge of their range will do better — including basswood, black cherry, white pine, red maple, sugar maple and white oak.

According to the report’s findings, significant changes in Minnesota’s climate have been documented over the past century. On average, northern Minnesota forests are seeing less snowfall but more severe winter storms. Meanwhile, minimum and maximum temperatures have been increasing across all seasons, with winter temperatures rising the most. Rainfall in the spring and fall has increased, with more of that precipitation occurring in downpours of 3 inches or more.

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