Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumTwo weeks to the end of melt season
NSIDC has Sept 12 as the last melt date. The average melt from now to the 12th is 0.291 million sq km. Based on yesterday's extent of 5.553 m sq km, this would give a final for the year of 5.262 m sq km, the highest end total since 2006. It's still 1.016 m sq km less than average, but it's a lot better than the 2.865 m sq km deficit had in 2012.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
happyslug
(14,779 posts)Just pointing out what 2 standard deviation from the norm (average) means. Be prepared to address that argument.
Two standard deviation from the norm means there is a 5% chance the difference is just mere chance. The problem is that over the last few years all the charts have been close to the 95% cut off point. As you get more and more 95% data you get less and less chance that all of them are just a product of chance. 95% followed by another 95% year is closer to 100% then 95%.
The problem is every year seems to be at the 95% standard deviation point
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)The former is (relatively) independent of sample size, while the latter is a direct function of sample size.
A "treatment effect" of 2 SD is very large; only in the single-sample instance would the SD=SE.
PoutrageFatigue
(416 posts).... we've lost a crap-ton of ice, less than average, less than the worst year ever, but we're still on a massive downward trend?
In other words the deniers will seize on this as proof that global warming is slowing down/"pausing", yes?
OnlinePoker
(5,722 posts)I keep hearing the meme that Al Gore said in 2007 that the Arctic would be ice free this year but it never happened so it won't happen. It doesn't help when predictions keep pushing the date of ice free back from the teens to 20's to 30's. Now it's mid-century.