Expect Sound And Fury And Nothing In The Way Of A Binding Climate Treaty From NYC, Now Or Next Year

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Instead, the next international climate deal is likely to be a collection of voluntary commitments to control greenhouse gas emissions by individual countries and groups of nations. That’s a problem, some environmentalists say, because the lack of legally binding requirements would make such a deal toothless. But others point to U.S. progress in reducing greenhouse pollution even without participating in Kyoto (emissions in 2012 were 10 percent below 2005 levels) as evidence that voluntary agreements can work.

The negotiations in Paris next year are expected to be intense because many nations, including the European Union, much of Africa, and island countries, are pushing for a binding treaty and deep emissions cuts. (Related: "Ahead of UN Climate Summit, Environmental Report Sees Economic Opportunities.&quot

This week’s summit will give country leaders a chance to signal how aggressive—or not—they will be in cutting emissions and in helping poor countries blunt the harm caused by droughts, sea-level rise, and other climate change effects. Other types of announcements to look for include pledges to protect forests, which trap a large amount of carbon dioxide. That greenhouse gas is released into the atmosphere when trees are cut down. Bold proposals by some presidents and prime ministers this week could encourage bigger commitments by their counterparts in the months ahead; weaker ones could give other countries cover to pull their punches. How far many nations are willing to go will become clear by March of next year, when the world's big emitters are required to submit their plans to the UN as part of the process leading up to Paris.

The big question about any international pact, experts say, is whether it will push countries to adopt cleaner energy sources or make other big changes that they wouldn’t otherwise undertake. “The odds are high that there will be an agreement,” said David Victor, professor of foreign relations at UC San Diego. “What’s open is whether the agreement will have any impact on behavior. What you’re trying to do ultimately is to get countries to do more than they would do unilaterally.”

There is no draft agreement yet, and some experts say there is not enough time before Paris to hammer out a complicated treaty that would require deep cuts in greenhouse gases. “I think it’s too late to have an agreement with big reductions in emissions,” Victor said.

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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/09/1409021-united-nations-climate-change-summit-treaty/