Environment & Energy

NickB79

(19,253 posts) Mon Sep 22, 2014, 10:01 PM Sep 2014

Global Warming Goal of 2 Degrees Dwindling

http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/9139/20140922/global-warming-goal-of-2-degrees-dwindling.htm

As our climate continues to change and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions keep climbing, scientists and world leaders alike fear that the chances of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius is dwindling fast. Now, climate officials have announced that it's highly unlikely we'll meet that goal due to the concentration of greenhouse gases.

In an effort to track carbon emissions, the Global Carbon Project (GCP) published three peer-reviewed articles identifying the challenges for society to keep global average warming less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, the findings don't offer much encouragement.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production actually grew 2.3 percent to a record high of 36.1 billion tons in 2013. In 2014, emissions are estimated to jump another 2.5 percent, which is 65 percent above the level of 1990. Needless to say, this is not offering any hope of reaching global climate goals.

10 replies

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Global Warming Goal of 2 Degrees Dwindling (Original Post) NickB79 Sep 2014 OP

Not at all surprised. marym625 Sep 2014 #1

2 degrees Celsius? Amazing what a miniscule yeoman6987 Sep 2014 #2

Here's an example of approaching three degrees I came acoss long ago. dipsydoodle Sep 2014 #4

Nowhere in the article does it mention what the increase in temp has been so far Sopkoviak Sep 2014 #3

Globally averaged, .6 C - or about 1.1F so far hatrack Sep 2014 #5

Ok, according to whom, based on what measure Sopkoviak Sep 2014 #6

Basically, according to every climate scientist and organization NickB79 Sep 2014 #8

And even "just" that has drastically altered the planet NickB79 Sep 2014 #7

Two problems: GliderGuider Sep 2014 #9

There is also the cause and effect delay FedUpWithIt All Sep 2014 #10

marym625

(17,997 posts)

1. Not at all surprised.

Reply to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 10:14 PM

Sep 2014

K&r

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)

2. 2 degrees Celsius? Amazing what a miniscule

Reply to marym625 (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 10:25 PM

Sep 2014

Increase can do. Amazing more so that this is what the fight is all about. Well good luck convincing the World. I sincerely mean it.

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)

4. Here's an example of approaching three degrees I came acoss long ago.

Reply to yeoman6987 (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 10:50 PM

Sep 2014

Because we understand that wild flowers = bees. :
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x315021 Want to try living without bees ?

Subject was bluebells and hairgrass.

Sopkoviak

(357 posts)

3. Nowhere in the article does it mention what the increase in temp has been so far

Reply to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 10:30 PM

Sep 2014

Anybody know?

hatrack

(59,587 posts)

5. Globally averaged, .6 C - or about 1.1F so far

Reply to Sopkoviak (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 11:01 PM

Sep 2014

Sopkoviak

(357 posts)

6. Ok, according to whom, based on what measure

Reply to hatrack (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 11:27 PM

Sep 2014

And where do they peg the baseline?

NickB79

(19,253 posts)

8. Basically, according to every climate scientist and organization

Reply to Sopkoviak (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 11:37 PM

Sep 2014

NASA, for example: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html

The average temperature in 2012 was about 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 Celsius), which is 1.0 F (0.6 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline. The average global temperature has risen about 1.4 degrees F (0.8 C) since 1880, according to the new analysis.

NickB79

(19,253 posts)

7. And even "just" that has drastically altered the planet

Reply to hatrack (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 22, 2014, 11:32 PM

Sep 2014

Drastically reduced Arctic ice cover, eroding beaches, greater storm surges, melting glaciers, acidifying oceans, beetle-killed forests, permafrost thawing, species migrating to higher latitudes, shifting rainfall patterns. This is what we're already seeing, today. Not someday, not maybe, but today, in real-time.

A world 2C warmer than today would be unrecognizable in many respects.

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

9. Two problems:

Reply to NickB79 (Original post)

Tue Sep 23, 2014, 10:29 AM

Sep 2014

1. +2C is not "safe". It is a politically-acceptable target, not scientifically supported as safe.

2. The equilibrium sensitivity of the earth system has probably been been underestimated, and may be over twice as high as previously believed. I think the whole system sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is probably not 3C as per Charney, but rather the 7.8C calculated by the Apollo-Gaia Project.

FedUpWithIt All

(4,442 posts)

10. There is also the cause and effect delay

Reply to GliderGuider (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 24, 2014, 02:50 AM

Sep 2014

The temp changes we're seeing now are probably the result of our behavior in the mid 70s. looking at the rapid increase in CO2 emissions since...we're in very bad shape.

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