Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumAn unintended consequence of the drive to energy independence
It is ironic that recent American success at moving towards energy independence in fossil fuels may have unintentionally damaged the global economy.
American success at increasing domestic oil production, in concert with declining domestic oil demand since the recession in 2008, took much of its previous demand for imports off the world oil market. According to the EIA, in the 8 years from 2006 to 2014 the world's international oil market lost 8.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) of US demand. That 8.6 mbpd represents a decline of 65% in US imports, which manifests as the disappearance of an astonishing 20 to 25% of the international market for oil - and the decline is continuing.
Even in a managed and manipulated market such a drop can't help but depress world oil prices, much to the economic discomfort of such exporters as Russia, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela.
While the decline in American oil imports isn't the sole cause of the world's economic woes, it's definitely a contributing factor. Unanticipated consequences are common in complex systems like a globalized economy - this appears to be one of them.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M
jwirr
(39,215 posts)rebuilding local economies around making things that can be consumed by the people in their own nations. That kind of economy can withstand change.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)If the world economy ends up in tatters first, where does that money come from?
What could end up happening is the rebuilding of local economies at far lower levels of energy dissipation, economic activity - and lower population levels in consequence. That's perhaps a good long-term outcome for the biosphere, but maybe not so much for people...
jwirr
(39,215 posts)DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)as we switch to hybirds and other sources, we make sure we grow the ecomnomy by build thesed sources up. Europe is ahead of us on this, but the fact that even GM and Ford are selling low mpg cars and hybrids shows there is a demand.
quadrature
(2,049 posts)Most of the world would benefit
by tossing the middle east in the shit can.
Most, however, is not everybody.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)The oil glut is due to the global economy collapsing around our ears due to the austerity policies that the IMF, BIS, ECB, and all the rest of that alphabet soup, coupled with the quest for profits uber alles, which means starving everything else. Lack of Demand.
If no effort goes into public education, public health (ebola, anyone?), regulating the fraud perpetrated by banksters, product development, or career ladders, then the whole machine binds up and self-destructs, and there are no profits to rake off.
Greed and bankster speculation pushed oil up to unsustainable prices; anyone with a brain and a little capital went renewable, which is what will keep the lights on in the rapidly approaching Dark Ages, Part 2.
Going renewable cuts out the middleman, forcing the profiteering pirates to find more productive employment. Going renewable increases productivity. That's never damaging to an economy.
Yo_Mama
(8,303 posts)I think what you will see is more of shift in consumption from some areas to another.
Further, the drop in oil prices may hurt the elite incomes of a relatively few, but that drop in income is essentially transferred into the pockets of those who need the money far more. They will spend that, because they need stuff. They won't spend it on luxury yachts or golden bathroom fixtures - they'll spend it on education, food, medicine, shoes and clothing.
The US was headed toward recession before oil dropped. Now it won't roll over, because the effective incomes of the many cash-strapped households just gained.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria are already hurting, with more to follow. Any nation that depends to a large degree on oil income for its revenue is at rusk - much as Mexico was. A long-term depression in the price of oil could trigger the spread of failed states among oil exporters. In the long run it will balance out, but the potential for global social disruption is increased by low oil prices. Plus the pension funds that so many middle-class people are counting on for retirement may see significant losses due to their investment in energy stocks.
This isn't just a problem for the 1% and the Kochsuckers. We may save at the pumps, but what good is that if wee lose our jobs or our retirements?
Yo_Mama
(8,303 posts)Just look at the US. We are a large petroleum producer, and we may lose 50-75K jobs over this, plus profits will be lower. But in the overall economy, it's clearly a stimulant. Because incomes have been stagnant to declining for most, every dollar not spent at the pump or for heating oil goes back into the economy in another venue, thus supporting growth and profits and jobs in those other venues. We will probably gain over 500K jobs over the next year due to this pricing.
This is a big plus for Japan, for India, and on net, for the US. It's a very significant aid for parts of Europe. It helps China.
On net, structurally lower oil prices will be a large boost for the world economy.
And these are structurally lower prices, because the fracking tech has improved a lot, current wells are producing profitably at no more than $30 a barrel, and often significantly less, and even if new fracking projects slow, which I expect they will, there are new Canadian projects due to come on line next year.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)If it hurts a keystone nation, the result could easily be a global recession, and that would hurt everyone. Complex systems are notorious for having unforeseen tipping points.
FogerRox
(13,211 posts)At the end of the day, the same amount of money is circulating thru the economy, so the multiplier of this stimulus is not very good.
4dsc
(5,787 posts)has to fruition as predicted by many in the peak oil arena. Oil isn't the only so called equities that is falling. From gold to copper the fall is being noted.