Environment & Energy

muriel_volestrangler

(101,322 posts) Fri Mar 13, 2015, 10:05 AM Mar 2015

Global CO2 emissions 'stalled' in 2014

The growth in global carbon emissions stalled last year, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

It marks the first time in 40 years that annual CO2 emissions growth has remained stable, in the absence of a major economic crisis, the agency said.
...
"It provides much-needed momentum to negotiators preparing to forge a global climate deal in Paris in December: for the first time, greenhouse gas emissions are decoupling from economic growth."

And IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said while the data was "encouraging", this was "no time for complacency - and certainly not the time to use this positive news as an excuse to stall further action".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31872460

China's coal consumption fell, apparently.

7 replies

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Global CO2 emissions 'stalled' in 2014 (Original Post) muriel_volestrangler Mar 2015 OP

Yes, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continued to rise, pretty much in line w. past 20 years hatrack Mar 2015 #1

Concentration increase graphic for the visually oriented GliderGuider Mar 2015 #2

More good news! Binkie The Clown Mar 2015 #3

Exactly so. Don't worry, be happy! nt GliderGuider Mar 2015 #4

Which implies a few things about future warming NickB79 Mar 2015 #5

I thought so at first too, but on second thought GliderGuider Mar 2015 #6

It appears China's coal consumption did not, in fact, fall after all NickB79 Mar 2015 #7

hatrack

(59,587 posts)

1. Yes, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continued to rise, pretty much in line w. past 20 years

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Original post)

Fri Mar 13, 2015, 10:27 AM

Mar 2015

2014 - 398.60
2013 - 396.52
2012 - 393.88
2011 - 391.65
2010 - 389.90
2009 - 387.36
2008 - 385.45
2007 - 383.59
2006 - 381.81
2005 - 379.63
2004 - 377.36
2003 - 375.64
2002 - 373.10
2001 - 371.02
2000 - 369.48
1999 - 368.31
1998 - 366.63
1997 - 363.76
1996 - 362.64
1995 - 360.88

I mean, best of luck in Paris, guys, but this is the only number that matters. Until it starts going the other way, I'd hold off on the champagne and fireworks.

http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

2. Concentration increase graphic for the visually oriented

Reply to hatrack (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 13, 2015, 12:12 PM

Mar 2015

The trend is increasing over time, from 1.3 ppmv/yr in 1994-95 to 2.3 ppmv/yr in 2013-2014:

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)

3. More good news!

Reply to GliderGuider (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 13, 2015, 12:59 PM

Mar 2015

According to those graphs CO₂ concentrations have "stalled" 10 or 12 times in the last 20 or 30 years! I can't imagine what we have to worry about since emissions stall every couple of years or so. I guess we're safe after all.

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

4. Exactly so. Don't worry, be happy! nt

Reply to Binkie The Clown (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 13, 2015, 01:58 PM

Mar 2015

NickB79

(19,253 posts)

5. Which implies a few things about future warming

Reply to hatrack (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 13, 2015, 03:58 PM

Mar 2015

If manmade carbon emissions have stalled, but global carbon concentrations continue to rise at a steady or even increasing rate, that implies that a lot of the carbon emissions we're now seeing are being emitted by nature itself as positive feedback loops strengthen. It also implies that a lot of the carbon sinks we used to count on to soak up human emissions are becoming saturated, or even worse, are converting to carbon sources.

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

6. I thought so at first too, but on second thought

Reply to NickB79 (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 13, 2015, 05:08 PM

Mar 2015

A constant release of any amount of CO2 beyond what natural processes can dissipate will cause an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. A "stall" in emissions just means that the rate of increase of the concentration will slow a tiny bit. Saturated sinks and feedback mechanisms act in addition to the anthropogenic emissions, which are still ongoing.

I think the point of the article was more along the lines of, "We may be able to slow our rate of CO2 emissions while still continuing to eat the planet."

NickB79

(19,253 posts)

7. It appears China's coal consumption did not, in fact, fall after all

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 09:36 PM

Mar 2015

https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/china-has-already-exceeded-its-2015-cap-on-coal-production/

However, buried in a recently published statistical communique from China is the following important note,

data have been revised based on the results of the Third National Economic Census. The output of coal in 2013 has been revised from 3.68 billion tons to 3.97 billion tons.

In other words, coal production in 2013 was revised upwards by 7.9%, and by 0.29 billion tonnes. This revision is the equivalent of 1/3 of the annual coal production of America.

So, anyone want to hazard a guess at how reliable this claim of "stalling" carbon emissions really is?

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