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hatrack

(59,590 posts)
Fri Jun 19, 2015, 07:59 AM Jun 2015

China's "Renewables Revolution" Doesn't Exist; Wind/Solar 5% Of Primary Energy Growth (i.e. Coal)

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Last year China installed more new wind and solar capacity than any country in history. This is a fact, and it has led some to talk of China being a “renewables powerhouse” and of there being a “renewables revolution”. But out of context this fact can be much less impressive than it really is.

Let me put it into context using the most recent data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. Over the last decade China’s primary energy consumption grew by 1398 million tonnes of equivalent (Mtoe). Though, if history is a guide this figure will eventually be revised upwards. The annual average increase then was 140 Mtoe. For a comparison, Britain’s annual primary energy consumption was 188 Mtoe last year.

EDIT

How does China’s world leading wind and solar build out compare with this? In total, China got 42.4 Mtoe from wind and solar in 2014. In other words, the total production of energy from wind and solar energy is less than one third of a year’s of growth in primary energy consumption.

When you look at annual growth things are even clearer. Wind and solar grew by 6.97 Mtoe last year. This is a mere 5% of the average total growth in primary energy.

EDIT

https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/17/there-is-no-renewables-revolution-in-china-here-are-the-numbers-that-show-this/
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China's "Renewables Revolution" Doesn't Exist; Wind/Solar 5% Of Primary Energy Growth (i.e. Coal) (Original Post) hatrack Jun 2015 OP
Damn those pesky facts ...! (n/t) Nihil Jun 2015 #1
The 'analysis' is deliberately deceptive kristopher Jun 2015 #2
Your first graph shows China's coal consumption fell from 2013 to 2014 NickB79 Jun 2015 #3
That is another ham-handed attempt like the OP kristopher Jun 2015 #4

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
2. The 'analysis' is deliberately deceptive
Mon Jun 22, 2015, 08:10 AM
Jun 2015

Using the averaged figure is a ham-handed ploy to mask trend lines - and the trend lines are the central feature of the claim being discussed.

Looking at what's actually happening to the rate of growth shows just how grossly disingenuous the OP is:




http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/13/china-coal-consumption-co2-emissions-drop-2014/

See also this article from the Greenpeace China energy desk
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2014/12/17/china-coal-peak-iea-missed/

There is a major effort ahead to get China and everyone else to where we need to be, but change is undeniably underway.

NickB79

(19,257 posts)
3. Your first graph shows China's coal consumption fell from 2013 to 2014
Mon Jun 22, 2015, 03:40 PM
Jun 2015

However: http://www.democraticunderground.com/112782481#post3

Likewise today, people seem to be rather confident of the ability of China to both meet its 2020 coal consumption cap and to peak its emissions before 2030. And this belief in the ability of the Chinese Communist Party to deliver must be compared with the constant questioning of the ability of democratically elected governments to do the same. But, here is a problem. China has already exceeded its 2015 cap on coal production, and it did so two years ago. You won’t know this if you read the BP Statistical Review of World Energy or any other set of published statistics. They still tell you that China produced 3.68 billion tonnes of coal in 2013. However, buried in a recently published statistical communique from China is the following important note,

data have been revised based on the results of the Third National Economic Census. The output of coal in 2013 has been revised from 3.68 billion tons to 3.97 billion tons.

In other words, coal production in 2013 was revised upwards by 7.9%, and by 0.29 billion tonnes. This revision is the equivalent of 1/3 of the annual coal production of America.


????

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
4. That is another ham-handed attempt like the OP
Wed Jun 24, 2015, 12:41 PM
Jun 2015

Only you are trying to divert to alleged uncertainty about one year's number on a graph instead of the illegitimate use of an averaged number.

The trend line is pretty damned clear.

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