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NOAA, partners predict severe harmful algal bloom for Lake Erie (heavy rains: heavy nutrient runoff)
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150709-noaa-partners-predict-severe-harmful-algal-bloom-for-lake-erie.html[font face=Serif][font size=5]NOAA, partners predict severe harmful algal bloom for Lake Erie[/font]
[font size=4]Heavy June rains causing heavy nutrient runoff into lake basin[/font]
July 9, 2015
[font size=3]NOAA and its research partners, using an ensemble modeling approach, predict that the 2015 western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom season will be among the most severe in recent years and could become the second most severe behind the record-setting 2011 bloom.
The effects of the cyanobacterial blooms include a higher cost for cities and local governments to treat their drinking water, as well as risk to swimmers in high concentration areas, and a nuisance to boaters when blooms form. These effects will vary in locations and severity with winds, and will peak in September.
The bloom will be expected to measure 8.7 on the severity index with a range from 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5. This is more severe than the last year’s 6.5, and may equal or exceed 2013, which had the second worse bloom in this century. The severity index runs from a high of 10, which corresponds to the 2011 bloom, the worst ever observed, to zero. A severity above 5.0 indicates blooms of particular concern.
“While we are forecasting a severe bloom, much of the lake will be fine most of the time. The bloom will develop from west to east in the Lake Erie Western Basin, beginning this month. It is important to note that these effects will vary with winds, and will peak in September,” said Richard Stumpf, Ph.D., NOAA’s ecological forecasting applied research lead at NCCOS, who formally presented the forecast in a media event and science presentation at Ohio State University’s Stone Lab on Lake Erie today.[/font]
…[/font]
[font size=4]Heavy June rains causing heavy nutrient runoff into lake basin[/font]
July 9, 2015
[font size=3]NOAA and its research partners, using an ensemble modeling approach, predict that the 2015 western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom season will be among the most severe in recent years and could become the second most severe behind the record-setting 2011 bloom.
The effects of the cyanobacterial blooms include a higher cost for cities and local governments to treat their drinking water, as well as risk to swimmers in high concentration areas, and a nuisance to boaters when blooms form. These effects will vary in locations and severity with winds, and will peak in September.
The bloom will be expected to measure 8.7 on the severity index with a range from 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5. This is more severe than the last year’s 6.5, and may equal or exceed 2013, which had the second worse bloom in this century. The severity index runs from a high of 10, which corresponds to the 2011 bloom, the worst ever observed, to zero. A severity above 5.0 indicates blooms of particular concern.
“While we are forecasting a severe bloom, much of the lake will be fine most of the time. The bloom will develop from west to east in the Lake Erie Western Basin, beginning this month. It is important to note that these effects will vary with winds, and will peak in September,” said Richard Stumpf, Ph.D., NOAA’s ecological forecasting applied research lead at NCCOS, who formally presented the forecast in a media event and science presentation at Ohio State University’s Stone Lab on Lake Erie today.[/font]
This graphic illustrates, thru the red bar, what the projected HABS bloom range for 2015 will be in comparison to the final bloom size of blooms over the previous 15 years. The wider portion of the red bar is the most likely scenario based on current nutrient loading data. (Credit: NOAA)
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