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unhappycamper

(60,364 posts)
Sat Jul 11, 2015, 10:45 AM Jul 2015

This is what it’s going to look like when 20 feet of sea level rise swallows America

http://www.salon.com/2015/07/10/this_is_what_its_going_to_look_like_when_20_feet_of_sea_level_rise_swallows_america/



Even if we cut emissions, a new study projects, our coastlines are done for

This is what it’s going to look like when 20 feet of sea level rise swallows America
Lindsay Abrams
Friday, Jul 10, 2015 12:59 PM EST

~snip~

It’ll take awhile, but according to a new paper published in the journal Science, the planet’s on track to see sea levels rise by at least 20 feet — and that’s only if we manage to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, a target many believe we’re already doomed to surpass.

Once the ice sheets start melting, as apocalyptic headlines have already made clear, there’s no real way to stop them. And during periods in Earth’s past when temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, sea levels surged.

“As the planet warms, the poles warm even faster, raising important questions about how ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will respond,” Andrea Dutton, a geochemist at the University of Florida and the study’s lead author, said in a statement. “While this amount of sea-level rise will not happen overnight, it is sobering to realize how sensitive the polar ice sheets are to temperatures that we are on path to reach within decades.”

Suffice it to say such changes would render our coastlines unrecognizable. In order to better fuel our nightmares, Climate Central created an interactive map showing exactly what those 20 feet of sea level rise would mean for the U.S. By the time this happens, be it the early scenario of 2200 or centuries after that, America will already be a different place regardless, but the rising tides will mean that in addition to everything else, we’ll be down 48,000 square miles of land — currently home to 5 percent of our population.
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This is what it’s going to look like when 20 feet of sea level rise swallows America (Original Post) unhappycamper Jul 2015 OP
direct link to the interactive map mentioned above Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #1
This map only projects to 10 ft rise; now we're looking at 20 ft. rise. Divernan Jul 2015 #3
Still the best map I know is this one - allows you to use different rises muriel_volestrangler Jul 2015 #6
This map gives results for much deeper water OKIsItJustMe Jul 2015 #11
Thanks. nt Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #12
People don't realize how serious this is. The interactive map is good - PatrickforO Jul 2015 #2
1 meter or about 3 feet could take out our economy/society. mackdaddy Jul 2015 #4
Thanks for that genxlib Jul 2015 #7
Thank you for the TEDx link mackdaddy Jul 2015 #9
You're welcome genxlib Jul 2015 #10
The real test is refining capacity happyslug Jul 2015 #5
There has been an interactive map about sea level rise on the net for over ten years. happyslug Jul 2015 #8

Divernan

(15,480 posts)
3. This map only projects to 10 ft rise; now we're looking at 20 ft. rise.
Sat Jul 11, 2015, 11:31 AM
Jul 2015

At "only" 10 feet, look at the Florida coastline. Merritt Island/Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral will be completely submerged, as will be Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and all of the Keys. And yet naive and/or climate change denying fools are still being suckered into purchasing retirement homes on the Florida coast.

PatrickforO

(14,582 posts)
2. People don't realize how serious this is. The interactive map is good -
Sat Jul 11, 2015, 11:10 AM
Jul 2015

Maybe it will help.

There are literally billions of people who will be affected when the sea level rises.

If you think it through, it is a problem that will affect all of us adversely.

- These people will be mostly destitute because the only wealth most Americans really have is in their homes and those homes will be worthless once sea level rises.

- Most Americans have less than $10,000 in savings and many are one paycheck away from hunger. So the people affected will not only be broke, they'll also be hungry.

- Most will be unemployed because their jobs will have 'gone under.' Under water, that is. And those whose jobs haven't will probably lose them anyway because this will throw the world economy into a depression.

- One thing they will have is plenty of guns, because, hey, the Second Amendment!

So now imagine millions of destitute refugees moving inland in an inexorable wave and ask yourself, 'how will my community be able to cope with this incoming tide of hungry, unemployed, homeless but well armed people?'

mackdaddy

(1,527 posts)
4. 1 meter or about 3 feet could take out our economy/society.
Sat Jul 11, 2015, 12:16 PM
Jul 2015

Dredd blog make a convincing argument that only 1 meter sea level rise could take out most sea ports and all of the economic trade through them. This would result in a total economic collapse. It would take less that 1.4% of the Greenland and Antarctic ice to melt to get there, and this could happen in as little as 10 to 15 years.
http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2015/06/greenland-antarctica-invade-united_18.html

The best overview of Sea Level rise is from a video by John England where he also goes into detail about how many low lying cities will become inhabitable with less than 10 ft rise like Sacramento, 80 miles from the coast is on a tidal river with more miles of levees than New Orleans, and with all the subsidence from pumping water it and the surrounding farming valleys will go under saltwater.


genxlib

(5,528 posts)
7. Thanks for that
Sun Jul 12, 2015, 12:01 AM
Jul 2015

John Englander is a close friend so thanks on his behalf for the shout out on his video.

He also has an excellent book called "High Tide on Main Street"

That video is excellent and I have seen some variation of that speech at least 10 times. However, if you are ever trying to get somebody interested with less of a commitment, he also has a condensed TEDx talk that is only about 11 minutes.



Ironically we both live on the coast in Florida. Every time we get together, talk turns to the impending apocalypse and becomes an impromptu planning session to get the hell out.

mackdaddy

(1,527 posts)
9. Thank you for the TEDx link
Sun Jul 12, 2015, 12:59 PM
Jul 2015

Thank you back for this link. I have bookmarked for my references. This is an excellent summation video. (sorry about leaving off the ER on John EnglandER's name. I am not sure if I did that or if spell-check helped me there.

I have found John's videos as some of the most understandable descriptions on what is going on and what this will mean for us in the future. Please pass on my thanks and encouragement to him.

It is interesting to also read the deniers comments on youtube. I think that the disinformation campaign has been so successful that until their couch washes out the back door, they will not believe it is happening. Maybe not then.

I do have a couple of comments to get out there. One is on the 1 to 300 ratio of Sea Level Rise to coastline retreat. I have seen other numbers like 1 to 100, but I guess that it depends on how it is calculated over the millions of miles of coastline over the entire globe. Also I would think that it also depends on what the Sea Level Rise we are talking about is. A 1 foot rise might be generally blocked by our system of levies in most inhabited areas. But 10 feet SLR would top almost all of them an would inundate huge areas around tidal rivers. I believe the tidal basin around the Jefferson memorial was only about 5 feet or so from the walkway around it so I am guessing a good part of DC would go under water every high tide. Anyhow, a quick explanation of why a 5 foot tide change does not cause a 1500 foot coastline change would be a good addition to the shorter talk as this is the general argument against his data.

The other point I have not seen discussed is that I believe that Seal Level Rise would itself be a self reinforcing feed back loop for Sea Level Rise. Much of the recent study of the Land based glaciers melting is that the seawater is pushing up underneath the glaciers and melting them from below. It would seem to me that higher sea levels would accelerate the melting of the glaciers and tend to try to lift the ice or further fracture the area where the glacier meets the sea.

I think the biggest problem is still that the rate of land based glaciers dropping into the seas is accelerating, and this appears to continue to accelerate at astonishing rates. A the one glacier scientist explained it they have seen a 10 fold increase in the ice flow into the sea in just the last decade. That would be like if you were traveling at 50 miles an hour in your car, you are now going 500 miles and hour. And again the acceleration is still happening. I have read that in the ice core samples there is evidence of several "surges" of rapid sea level rises that they were originally discounting, but are now thinking are real events of several meters of rise over less than a decade. Are we setting up for another surge? It will probably take a few hundred billion in lost coastal real estate to make this truly generally accepted

genxlib

(5,528 posts)
10. You're welcome
Sun Jul 12, 2015, 08:02 PM
Jul 2015

I will give John a head's up about this thread. He will appreciate your comments.

Your concern about the 300:1 rise to loss ratio is understood. I think it is something of an over-simplification of reality. Clearly, the loss will change from location to location since the slope of the shore line varies. I suspect it is an approximate equivalent representing the total loss of land expressed as a dimension from the coast. Sometimes simplifying data with the intent of making it more understandable can stretch it to the point that it becomes a target of debate.

John also has a blog at johnenglander.net. He often engages with people in the comments section of the articles so if you have questions you can try him there.

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
5. The real test is refining capacity
Sat Jul 11, 2015, 04:43 PM
Jul 2015

Most refineries are on the Texas and New Jersey coastlines. If they go underwater what do we replace them with? I.e. where do we get our REFINED oil products from?

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