Nature - Recession Caused 07-09 US Carbon Emissions Drop, Not Switch From Coal To Gas

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The idea that shale gas has been behind US emissions reductions is repeated in news coverage, speeches and reports. It is used by gas advocates making the case for fracking in the UK. It has entered the political consciousness and is widely accepted as fact. This conventional wisdom runs to the highest levels of scientific analysis. In its latest assessment report the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says fracking is "an important reason for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States".

In the US context, shale gas is seen as a key reason both for emissions reductions and in creating the political space necessary to take action on climate change. One veteran of the Congressional climate and energy debate has told Carbon Brief that shale gas had changed the political conversation. During failed attempts to impose a national cap-and-trade scheme, the talk was of expensive overseas gas being imported to help limit emissions.

Now, the source said, almost all of the emissions reductions required to meet President Obama's Clean Power Plan are expected to come from coal-to-gas switching, using cheap US shale gas.


Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States between 1990 and 2014. Total greenhouse gas emissions have followed a similar trend but available figures are less up to date. Source: US Energy Information Administration. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Given this expectation, a lot is riding on whether or not shale gas really has reduced emissions. The relevance of fracking for emissions reductions has been challenged before. Yet while previous efforts have disagreed on the details, they have tended to assume a major role for shale. The new research challenges this thinking head on. The authors say: "Despite potentially significant implications for US climate and energy policy, there has been no quantitative analysis of whether the gas boom and changes in the fuel mix of the power sector are indeed driving the decrease in US CO2 emissions."

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http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/07/recession-rather-than-shale-gas-caused-us-carbon-cuts-study/