Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumWe Are All Chinese Now
Ive been re-reading Richard Smiths eye-opening assessment of the current Chinese political, economic and ecological situation (China's Communist-Capitalist Ecological Apocalypse) recently published on Truth-Out.org. I highly recommend reading the whole article.
While the predicament Mr. Smith describes in China is admttedly more extreme than what is happening in the Western industrialized world (at least for now..) the two situations are surprisingly congruent in their broader outlines. In fact, some of the analysis applies to the United States and the rest of the developed world virtually word-for-word, by changing only the name of the player.
This similarity implies that the considerations in the article could be a useful template for thinking about what it would take to pull the USA as well as China - and by extension the whole world - out of its current charge over the ecological cliff. This examination may make it clearer what can, and cant be realistically expected in the time we have left before the crops begin to fail in earnest.
In the rest of this note I have taken the liberty of extracting some of the salient points of Richard Smiths argument and re-wording them slightly to place them in a global context. My own alterations are in italics. Ive tried to change the original text as little as possible, mainly by substituting the world for the original references to China. I trust that Mr. Smith will find my paraphrasing acceptable under fair use copyright provisions.
I have formed my own opinions on the likelihood of such changes actually happening, and you can probably guess what it is.
The only way the world could suppress its greenhouse gas emissions by anything like that amount would be to impose a drastic across-the-board economic contraction, including radical retrenchments and shutdowns of most of the industries that have been built up in the last three decades of market mania. I'm sure this sounds extreme, if not completely crazy. But I don't see what other conclusion we can draw from the science. On the positive side, as I surveyed above, since so much of the worlds resource waste and pollution is just completely unnecessary and harmful, what sounds like extreme austerity could prove just the opposite: liberating, a move to that "better mode of life." Such an emergency plan would have to include at least the following elements:
- Shut down all but critically essential coal-fired power plants needed as a temporary measure to keep the lights and heat on and essential public services in operation until renewable replacements can be brought on line. Abandon the coal gasification projects and phase out oil- and gas-powered fuel plants as quickly as possible. Force a rapid transition of energy generation to renewable wind, water and solar energy sources but with the goal of producing much less electricity overall, closer to what the world produced in the early 1980s before the market-driven industrialization boom. The US and other developed countries should be obliged to provide extensive technical and material assistance to facilitate this transition.
- Shut down most of the auto industry. This industry is just a total waste of resources and is the second-biggest contributor to global warming. Most public transportation will have to shift back to bicycles, buses, trains and subways - basically a modernized and expanded version of what the Chinese had in the early 1980s before the auto craze. But the air will be cleaner, transportation will be faster, people will be healthier and immense resources will be conserved.
- Shut down most of the coastal export industries. Most of the worlds coastal export industries are geared to producing unsustainable, disposable products, as noted above. There is just no way to have a sustainable economy anywhere if we don't abolish the throwaway repetitive-consumption industries around the world.
- Retrench or close down aviation, shipping, and other redundant and unsustainable transportation industries. Abandon the "aviation superpower" boondoggle. Abandon further expansion of the high-speed train network. The world has already built more planes, trains and subways than it needs by any rational accounting of needs. Same with the shipbuilding industry, most of which is geared to container and bulk carrier shipping. This industry needs to be drastically reduced the worlds imports and exports decline with industrial contraction.
- Shut down most of the construction industry. Even with the worlds huge population, the planet is massively overbuilt and littered with useless, superfluous buildings, housing, highways, bridges, airports and so on. Some of this can be repurposed. Some should be demolished and the lands returned to farmlands, wetlands, parks or other beneficial use.
- Abandon the urbanization drive and actively promote re-ruralization. Urban life has its advantages but urban residents consume several times the energy and natural resources and generate several times as much pollution as rural farm families. Besides, most of the hundreds of millions of people who were relocated to the cities in the last three decades did not go voluntarily; they were forced off their farms by land-grabbing, profiteering local officials. Those ex-farmers who wish to return to the land should be permitted to do so. There is no law of nature that says farm families must be impoverished. In today's world, family farmers with adequate land and decent technology, who can market their own produce so they don't get ripped off by middlemen, and who are not under the thumb of banks, landlords or state-landlords, can do very well. The worlds small farmers are poor because the state and multinational corporations have been squeezing them to subsidize industrialization. The best way to raise rural living standards is to give them security in their farms and pay them fair prices for their produce.
- Abandon the imperial plunder colonization of the developing world. If the worlds governments abandon their market-based development strategy they would have no "need" to plunder the natural resources of the developing world; those peoples can be left in peace to develop at their own pace and in accordance with their ecological limits. And after wrecking so much of their environment, the industrialized nations owe them some help.
- Launch an emergency global plan for environmental remediation and restoration of public health. Environmental and health experts have called for a comprehensive integrated plan to address the worlds environmental and public health issues. Experts say it could take generations to restore the worlds farmlands, rivers and lakes to tolerable biological health though, as noted above, in places this may be impossible. A significant share of the costs of this remediation should also be borne by the Western nations whose companies callously contributed to this pollution by offshoring their dirtiest industries to the developing world.
- Launch a national public works jobs program. If the world is going to have to shut down so much of its industrial economy to brake the drive to ecological collapse, then it is going to have to find or create new jobs for all those displaced workers.( ) But unbreathable air, undrinkable water, unsafe food, polluted farmland, epidemic cancer, rising temperatures and rising seas along coastal regions are bigger problems. So there's just no way around this very inconvenient truth. Making bad stuff has to stop; stopping it will unemploy vast numbers of workers, and other, non-destructive, low-carbon jobs have to be found or created for them. Fortunately, there is no shortage of other socially and environmentally useful work to do: environmental remediation, reforestation, transitioning to organic farming, transitioning to renewable energy, rebuilding and expanding public social services, rebuilding social safety nets, and much else.
Revolution or Collapse?
One thing is certain: This locomotive is not going to be stopped so long as the unholy alliance of multi-national corporations and their tame politicians have its grip on the controls. The world is locked in a death spiral. It can't rein in ravenous resource consumption and suicidal pollution because, given its dependence on the market to generate new jobs, it has to prioritize growth over the environment like governments everywhere.
So long as this basic structural class/property arrangement remains in effect, no top-down "war on pollution" or "war on corruption" is going to change this system or brake the worlds trajectory to ecological collapse. Given the foregoing, I just don't see how the worlds spiral to collapse can be reversed short of social revolution.
Who knows what spark will light the next social explosion?
hunter
(38,316 posts)Shut down all non-essential-to-life fossil-fueled high-energy industry, including the automobile industry.
In other words, it's not going to happen until Mother Nature crushes this world's bizarre and unsustainable economic ideology in much less pleasant ways.
I disagree with the author about most urbanization. Urban and the denser suburban areas can be restructured into low energy, walkable communities. Rural resettlement of the "forty acres and a mule" sort would require extensive high energy redevelopment, and relocating existing communities in a voluntary and agreeable manner is not a trivial task.
Even existing urban "slums" can be turned into comfortable, safe places by installing proper sewer, water, and electrical systems, and establishing some sort of property rights to families who are now simply regarded as squatters on land they do not own, subject to eviction and the destruction of their homes, all at the whims of big money developers and by force of law.
Breaking up existing communities and scattering the people is something only totalitarian governments and oligarchs do. Case in point, New Orleans: Big Money is all too happy to turn New Orleans into some kind of Venice or Disneyland, just as lower income communities are taken by eminent domain, and the people scattered to build things like football stadiums and shopping centers.
NickB79
(19,246 posts)I happen to live in a largely rural area, and the nearest town to us is 6 miles away.
How do suggest we sync a shutdown of the automobile industry with a revitalization of rural communities, given transportation requirements? Personally, the idea of walking to town in a Minnesota winter is incredibly terrifying.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)I don't present the arguments above as doable in any way, shape or form. They are intended to illustrate the unbridgeable gap that has opened between the necessary and the possible.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)My Grandfather remembered a time before the Model T. Yet, somehow, he lived.
The safety bicycle isnt even 150 years old.
Honestly, a 6 mile walk isnt that far
even in a Minnesota Winter.
NickB79
(19,246 posts)And while I enjoy having a coop with a half-dozen chickens, and maybe I'll get a goat or two someday, I don't think I could feed and house a horse to pull a buggy like my great-grandfather had, on my 1.5 acres of land.
And if we seriously plan on re-ruralizing the countryside, those new farmers will need transportation to get their goods to market, and walking miles with bushels of produce, or biking through a foot of snow to get to work, probably won't cut it.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)On the other hand, I didnt think much of walking the 4 miles between home and school. (Most of the time I rode the bus or my bike, but
yeah, 4 miles really isnt that bad, even in an upstate New York Winter.)
I grew up in a village with a general store. When two car households became the norm, the general store was put out of business by the super markets which you could only get to by driving.
The rural North East (at least) is still full of little hamlets, many of them with closed general stores. (It really wasnt all that long ago
)
How will farmers transport their produce? Oh, I expect they will use trucks of some sort.
I dont subscribe to GliderGuiders radical vision. The question to me is, do you need to drive a car to go half a mile?
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)Were they taken out and shot? Or, were their needs addressed by others?
What did a mother with two sick children do?
Can anyone live today without their very own automobile?
Seriously, why do we think cars are so vitally important to life? In the US, we have almost a 1:1 ratio of cars to people. How do the Indians survive with so few cars? (At the time of this analysis, India had a ratio of 56.3 people to every car.)
http://wardsauto.com/ar/world_vehicle_population_110815
Aug 15, 2011 John Sousanis | WardsAuto
[font size=4]Analysis[/font]
[font size=3]
Vehicles in operation in 2010 equated roughly to a ratio of 1:6.75 vehicles to people among a world population of 6.9 billion, compared with 1:6.63 in 2009. But the distribution was not equal, even among the biggest markets.
In the U.S., the ratio was 1:1.3 among a population of almost 310 million the highest vehicle-to-person ratio in the world. Italy was second with 1:1.45. France, Japan, and the U.K. followed, all of which fell in the 1:1.7 range.
In China, the ratio was 1:17.2 among the countrys more than 1.3 billion people. India, the worlds second most-populous nation with 1.17 billion people, saw a ratio of 1:56.3.
The world vehicle population in 2010 passed the 1 billion-unit mark 24 years after reaching 500 million in 1986. Prior to that, the vehicle population doubled roughly every 10 years from 1950 to 1970, when it first reached the 250 million-unit threshold.[/font][/font]
http://photos.state.gov/libraries/cambodia/30486/Publications/everyone_in_america_own_a_car.pdf
[font size=4]Car-sharing Offers Convenience, Saves Money and Helps the Environment[/font]
BY ROBIN CHASE
[font size=3]It is true that 95 percent of American households own a car, and most Americans get to work by car (85 percent). It wasnt always this way, nor is it likely to stay this way.
Until World War II and into the late 1940s, many Americans did not own cars. People lived in cities and towns, and 40 percent did not own cars but used public buses, trolleys and trains. Soon after the war, a surge in low-cost, mass-produced houses occurred outside cities to accommodate returning soldiers and their growing families.
The new housing pattern was accompanied by the National Interstate Highway System, which was started in 1956. During the next 50 years, 46,876 miles (75,440 kilometers) of highways were built across America. Americans could live in affordable suburbs in houses built on cheap land, and they could get to distant jobs with cars.
As a result, only 5 percent of Americans use public transportation to get to their jobs today, but this pattern is changing.
[/font][/font]
hunter
(38,316 posts)... all mechanical forms of transportation except for human powered vehicles and emergency response vehicles, are limited to 35 mph.
That's a different sort of vehicle than the current automobile "standard" but fine for your semi-rural purposes.
It also means you take a train or ship on long trips, still 35 mph, but you're not driving, so you get to look out the windows, walk around, meet new people, watch movies, and generally have a relaxing trip while getting to know the true size of the earth on a human scale.
Of course I can't force anyone to live in my utopia, but I do think we could provide everyone with safe, comfortable, low energy housing, creating communities where cars are unnecessary, and even considered undesirable by most people.
In "developed" nations these communities could be created by the modification of existing infrastructure, rather than typical high energy tear down and rebuild construction.
I also think for the most basic guaranteed forms of housing that people ought to be able to "own" their home in some sense, secure in the knowledge they can't be evicted unless they become a terrible nuisance or danger to themselves or others; that they can paint the walls inside and out any color they want, install whatever flooring they like, and generally modify their living space in any way that's not harmful to the neighbors and structural integrity of the building.
Our U.S.A. society discourages the formation of true communities in many ways. We are isolated in our automobiles, we are isolated and insecure in the place we inhabit.
I think that makes it easier for the oligarchy to manipulate us, to sell us the "consumer" lifestyle, to keep us in a corrosive fog of lies, insecurity, fear, and passivity.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Call it Re-connection World. It's a damned fine daydream, I would love to see it happen.