Environment & Energy

jpak

(41,758 posts) Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:21 PM Feb 2016

Renewable Energy Is Trouncing Fossil Fuels

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/renewable-energy-fossil-fuels_us_56b3770de4b04f9b57d899c8

The United States has to reduce greenhouse emissions to less than a quarter of what they were in 2005 to meet its commitment under the Paris climate agreement.

Getting to that goal will depend on a huge number of factors, but a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows renewables are a large, and growing, majority of energy projects in the U.S., and that the American economy is getting more and more energy efficient. The report also found that the incremental amount of investment needed every year over the next 15 years to keep the U.S. and the rest of the globe below 2 degrees Celsius of warming is less than the current annual volume of U.S. auto loans. In other words, completely manageable.

First, here's new U.S. electricity capacity by type. Renewables made up 68 percent of new projects in 2015.

Second, the long-term trend is that the U.S. economy is less and less a machine that ingests oil and coal and spits out GDP. In fact, as the chart below shows, the U.S. economic growth and energy use have been decoupled since about the mid-1990s. Part of that is the shift away from manufacturing, and there is noise in the year-to-year trends (especially on a global level, where emissions fell in 2015 but have probably not peaked). But the path for the U.S. is clear and has been for more than a decade: emissions and the economy don't necessarily move together.

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5 replies

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Highlight:

Renewable Energy Is Trouncing Fossil Fuels (Original Post) jpak Feb 2016 OP

but... but... but... SoLeftIAmRight Feb 2016 #1

Not sure what "giggle jewels" are... FBaggins Feb 2016 #2

no we can't - no we can't - no we can't SoLeftIAmRight Feb 2016 #3

what did the dying centipede say... SoLeftIAmRight Feb 2016 #4

That is a superficial view. kristopher Feb 2016 #5

SoLeftIAmRight

(4,883 posts)

1. but... but... but...

Reply to jpak (Original post)

Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:25 PM

Feb 2016

think about the "giggle Jewels" - not enough giggle jewels

FBaggins

(26,748 posts)

2. Not sure what "giggle jewels" are...

Reply to SoLeftIAmRight (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:34 PM

Feb 2016

But in gigawatt hours (you know... actual electricity produced?), renewables are in no sense "trouncing" fossil.

Those gray bars representing natural gas account for much more electricity produced than the blue bars representing renewables. This is because of the of-avoided reality that capacity doesn't mean as much if you can't control how much of that capacity is actually produced (or when). ignoring capacity factors is disingenuous.

SoLeftIAmRight

(4,883 posts)

3. no we can't - no we can't - no we can't

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:37 PM

Feb 2016

say it with me...

no we can't

SoLeftIAmRight

(4,883 posts)

4. what did the dying centipede say...

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:43 PM

Feb 2016

erg

kristopher

(29,798 posts)

5. That is a superficial view.

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 9, 2016, 01:06 AM

Feb 2016

The standard way stats are gathered is by capacity. From that, there are a lot of factors besides maximum potential capacity factor that determine what trouncing is going on.

For example, natural gas is increasing for 4 reasons:
1) presently it is relatively inexpensive to install and operate.
2) it produces fewer CO2e emissions than coal.
3) it is able to ramp up and down quickly.
4) the ramping up and down provides a flexibility the grid values highly as a part of a renewable grid.

Together with renewables those 4 factors have displaced further development in coal (and most like nuclear also).

Where your observation becomes superficial is the story these numbers tell about future growth. The investment in natural gas, together with the expected rather short duration of current low natural gas prices, compliments continued and accelerating increases in renewable capacity - but not natural gas.
As renewables increase it will start hitting a point where they start curtailing market access for natural gas. The difference between the coal (and nuclear plants) is that instead of becoming less profitable as this happens, the natural gas plants reactive ability will find market support. That support will enable them to stay in business even as they produce less and less electricity.

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