Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:27 AM Sep 2015

Talking to Al Assad is already happening

Now in its fifth year, the Syrian civil war has claimed more than 250,000 lives and the regime of Bashar Al Assad, though weakened, is still firmly in place. All attempts by the West and its allies to influence the course of events have so far proved ineffectual.

The main problem is the complexity and instability of the political landscape. Yesterday’s enemies can suddenly become today’s great allies and vice versa. Until recently, Iran — which, along with Russia, is Al Assad’s most stalwart backer — was for decades the West’s regional nemesis. Then came this summer’s nuclear deal between the P5+1 (United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) and Tehran. For Tehran — and Moscow — there is no discussion on the future of Al Assad. They support him and see him as part of the solution to the much bigger problem that confronts and threatens the whole region — Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). The West, in rapprochement mode with Iran, is now reluctant to cross this red line.

The US, its Gulf allies and Turkey spent millions of dollars attempting to fund, arm and train a ‘moderate’ Syrian opposition, but the results have been unimpressive. Much of the funding and weaponry ended up in the hands of militants, including Daesh, while a recent training programme, funded by Washington to the tune of $1 million (Dh3.67 million), has produced just 54 soldiers for the latest project — the ‘New Syria Force’.

In the fight against Daesh, the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit militias (YPG) proved a most useful — and apparently acceptable — ally; the Kurds are the only fighters who have had the courage to meet Daesh on the ground and they achieved several notable military successes including retaking Kobane supported by American air power. When the US recently succeeded in pressurising Turkey to join the fight against Daesh, however, Ankara demanded a ‘safe zone’ on its border with Syria in exchange. Many commentators believe that the ‘safe zone’ is actually intended to break up contiguous, Kurdish-held territories because Turkey greatly fears Kurdish autonomy and waged a 30 year civil war with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) separatist guerrillas.

http://gulfnews.com/opinion/thinkers/talking-to-al-assad-is-already-happening-1.1574152

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Talking to Al Assad is already happening (Original Post) bemildred Sep 2015 OP
Vladimir Putin claims ally Bashar Assad is 'ready to hold elections' with 'healthy opposition' bemildred Sep 2015 #1
Removing Assad is not the solution to Syria crisis, senior Tory says bemildred Sep 2015 #2
Syria's Bashar al-Assad: 'We trust the Russians' bemildred Sep 2015 #3
Syria car bomb kills 10 in Bashar al-Assad's stronghold bemildred Sep 2015 #4
Iran submits peace plan to Syria's Bashar al-Assad: Official bemildred Sep 2015 #5
Failure of Syria diplomacy exposes enduring divisions over Assad bemildred Sep 2015 #6
Unrest Mounts in Southern Syria After Druse Cleric Dies in Blast bemildred Sep 2015 #7
U.S. Warns Russia Over Military Support for Assad bemildred Sep 2015 #8
Unease With Assad Regime on the Rise bemildred Sep 2015 #9
Syria’s deadly truth: Assad’s killers are more prolific than Islamic State’s bemildred Sep 2015 #10
. nt bemildred Sep 2015 #11
About 30 IS militants killed in clashes around the city of Marea bemildred Sep 2015 #12
Fighting around key Syria town 'leaves 47 dead' - activists bemildred Sep 2015 #13
When will US and our Allies Convene a joint Conference KoKo Sep 2015 #14
Not yet. nt bemildred Sep 2015 #15
As near as I can tell we are still trying to salvage the careers of the perpetrators of the current bemildred Sep 2015 #16
Quite a contrast in the two articles: KoKo Sep 2015 #17
Those two were easily the most interesting of the bunch. bemildred Sep 2015 #18
Agree...Diplomacy should have priority KoKo Sep 2015 #19
Congress likes to be able to sell favors, and the military has ALWAYS been the best place for graft bemildred Sep 2015 #20

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
1. Vladimir Putin claims ally Bashar Assad is 'ready to hold elections' with 'healthy opposition'
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:28 AM
Sep 2015

Vladimir Putin has claimed Bashar al-Assad is ready to hold snap parliamentary elections and share power with “healthy” opposition, as the civil war in Syria continues.

Russia has been among Mr Assad’s staunchest allies during the four-and-a-half year civil war that has decimated Syria and created more than four million refugees.

Among those who fled was Aylan Kurdi, three, whose body was photographed on the shores of Turkey on Wednesday. The image has provoked a storm of criticism around the treatment of refugees, the majority of whom now come from Syria.

Mr Putin has argued removing the Syrian dictator would further destabilise the region as well as open the door for Isis to make significant land gains.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/vladimir-putin-claims-ally-bashar-assad-is-ready-to-hold-elections-with-healthy-opposition-10486871.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Removing Assad is not the solution to Syria crisis, senior Tory says
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:29 AM
Sep 2015

The Government cannot expect Parliament to vote for extending airstrikes to Syria without answering some basic questions.

The legal basis for airstrikes and their military utility have to be addressed. But there are more profound concerns that stretch far beyond the mandate of a few British aircraft.

Parliament should not tolerate a debate that ignores the wider international political strategy.

As things stand British aircraft in hot pursuit of ISIS militants stop at the Iraq-Syria border.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11846742/Removing-Assad-is-not-the-solution-to-Syria-crisis-senior-Tory-says.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
3. Syria's Bashar al-Assad: 'We trust the Russians'
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:30 AM
Sep 2015

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has said he is confident that his main allies, Russia and Iran, will stand by him.

There has been speculation that they might abandon him to allow a settlement to be reached to end the fighting in Syria.

Mr Assad said he welcomed Russian officials meeting different factions in the conflict and trusted them to maintain "their great relationship with Syria".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34060071

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
4. Syria car bomb kills 10 in Bashar al-Assad's stronghold
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:31 AM
Sep 2015

One of Bashar al-Assad’s last strongholds in Syria suffered a car bomb attack on Wednesday, killing at least 10 people.

This explosion in Latakia ranked among the bloodiest incidents in the city since the onset of the civil in 2011.

Many of Latakia’s inhabitants are from Mr Assad’s minority Alawite sect. The city had been viewed as the regime's heartland – and the target of the increasingly desperate efforts to recruit young Alawite males to fight for Mr Assad. But the explosion suggested that the rebels have managed to infiltrate Latakia. A new alliance of various insurgent groups has been gaining ground in rural areas nearby.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11839761/Syria-car-bomb-kills-10-in-Bashar-al-Assads-stronghold.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
5. Iran submits peace plan to Syria's Bashar al-Assad: Official
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:32 AM
Sep 2015

DAMASCUS: Iran submitted last month a peace plan to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to try and end his country's four-year war, a senior Iranian official said on Thursday.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian however told a news conference in Damascus that any initiative to end the conflict would have to recognize "the pivotal role of Assad."

The peace plan was submitted to Assad by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during a visit to Damascus on August 12, he said.

Assad "welcomed it as a constructive political initiative from Iran, and the two sides agree to follow up on these preliminary ideas via the two foreign ministers," Amir-Abdollahian said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/iran-submits-peace-plan-to-syrias-bashar-al-assad-official/articleshow/48795239.cms

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. Failure of Syria diplomacy exposes enduring divisions over Assad
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:41 AM
Sep 2015

While the desperate flight of Syrians from their country's war was dominating news bulletins this summer, yet another diplomatic push to end the four-year-old conflict was quietly running into the sand.

That largely unnoticed failure has reinforced the view amongst Syria experts that there is no solution in sight, with one of the biggest obstacles a seemingly unbridgeable international divide over President Bashar al-Assad's future.

As a consequence, Syria looks set for ever greater fragmentation into a patchwork of territories, one of them the diminishing Damascus-based state where Assad appears confident of survival with backing from his Russian and Iranian allies.

While some Western officials say even Assad's allies now recognize he cannot win back and stabilize Syria, Moscow is setting out its case for supporting him in ever more forthright terms.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/06/us-mideast-crisis-syria-assad-insight-idUSKCN0R609B20150906

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
7. Unrest Mounts in Southern Syria After Druse Cleric Dies in Blast
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:43 AM
Sep 2015

BEIRUT, Lebanon — An unusual wave of unrest mounted Saturday in a normally quiet southern Syrian province, according to residents and activists there, after a double car-bombing killed a prominent Druse cleric who had challenged the government by supporting young men who refused to serve in the national army.

Angry residents staged demonstrations and attacked security offices, activists said, and by Saturday afternoon the security forces had withdrawn from the city of Sweida leaving only pro-government militias recruited locally, mostly from the minority Druse sect that predominates in the area.

Six members of the security forces were killed in the clashes, according to an antigovernment monitoring group.

Syria’s state news media noted the explosions, blaming “terrorists,” but did not mention the cleric’s death and denied that any members of the security forces had been killed. Sweida’s police chief said the city was calm.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/world/middleeast/unrest-mounts-in-southern-syria-after-druse-cleric-dies-in-blast.html?ref=world

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
8. U.S. Warns Russia Over Military Support for Assad
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:44 AM
Sep 2015

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart on Saturday that the United States was deeply concerned by reports that the Kremlin may be planning to vastly expand its military support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, warning that such a move might even lead to a “confrontation” with the American-led coalition, the State Department said.

Mr. Kerry called Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, “to discuss Syria, including U.S. concerns about reports suggesting an imminent enhanced Russian military buildup there,” the State Department said in an unusually blunt statement.

“The secretary made clear that if such reports were accurate, these actions could further escalate the conflict, lead to greater loss of innocent life, increase refugee flows and risk confrontation with the anti-ISIL Coalition operating in Syria,” the State Department added, using an acronym for the Islamic State.

The statement did not say if Mr. Lavrov provided any sign of Russia’s intentions, but there was no indication that he had eased Mr. Kerry’s concerns. The statement noted that the two diplomats planned to continue their discussions in New York this month, when the United Nations General Assembly is to meet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/john-kerry-russia-syria.html?ref=world&_r=0

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. Unease With Assad Regime on the Rise
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:45 AM
Sep 2015

ISTANBUL—

A growing number of soldiers and civilians in government-controlled areas of Syria are expressing rare public disaffection with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Noncombatants as well as the military in traditionally loyal coastal regions are complaining that not enough is being done to relieve enclaves besieged by rebels.

Political activists also report rising alarm at the increasing presence of Tehran-backed foreign fighters from Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iran.

In recent days, foreign Shi'ite fighters along with militiamen in the National Defense Force forcibly dispersed young protesters in the port city of Tartus, according to activists working with the pro-opposition television station Halab Today.

The station reported a wave of small-scale demonstrations erupting in several coastal towns earlier this week over Iran’s mounting military and political involvement in Syria. Especially sharp clashes were reported in Jablah, a town 25 kilometers south of the city of Latakia.

http://www.voanews.com/content/unease-with-assad-regime-on-the-rise/2934457.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
10. Syria’s deadly truth: Assad’s killers are more prolific than Islamic State’s
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 10:46 AM
Sep 2015

BEIRUT — President Bashar al-Assad’s government has killed far more people in Syria this year than the Islamic State group has, monitoring organizations and analysts say, even as the extremist group grabs headlines with its shocking brutality.

Between January and July, Assad’s military and pro-government militias killed 7,894 people, while the Islamic State killed 1,131, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in Britain. In a single day last month, government airstrikes are said to have killed more than 100 people in a residential area of Douma, a suburb of the capital, Damascus.

“No human being should have to endure what Assad is putting us through,” said Hassan Takuldin, 27, who witnessed the Douma attacks.

Government forces are responsible for many more of the estimated 250,000 deaths in the four-year-old conflict than are the Islamic State militants and rebel groups, analysts and monitoring groups say. The figures, they say, underscore how Assad’s indiscriminate use of violence has empowered the Islamic State and other extremist groups and forced millions of Syrians to flee to neighboring countries and Europe.

http://www.columbian.com/news/2015/sep/05/syrias-deadly-truth-assads-killers-are-more-prolific-than-islamic-states/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
12. About 30 IS militants killed in clashes around the city of Marea
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 11:37 AM
Sep 2015

The rebel battalions targeted IS positions in the village of Harbel in the north of Aleppo.

The regime forces shelled places in the village of Tlalin near the city of Marea in the north of Aleppo, no information about casualties.

Clashes are taking place between the regime forces, backed by NDF against the rebel and Islamist factions in al- Hatab square in the old city of Aleppo, information reported casualties.

Demonstration took place in the town of al- Atareb in the west of Aleppo demanding “the exit of Jabhat al- Nusra Front from the town” and condemning it practices in the area, where the demonstrators chanted “Allah eliminates Jabhat al- Nusra” and “al- Atareb is free while the Nusra must go out of the town”.

http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/09/about-30-is-militants-killed-in-clashes-around-the-city-of-marea/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
13. Fighting around key Syria town 'leaves 47 dead' - activists
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 11:38 AM
Sep 2015

Fighting between rebels and Islamic State (IS) militants around the strategic Syrian town of Marea has left 47 dead, according to activists.

The UK-based Syria Observatory for Human Rights said that 27 IS fighters were killed, with the rest being from other anti-government groups.

Marea lies in an area that Turkey and the US have reportedly wanted to turn into an IS-free "safe zone".

Last month it was alleged IS had used chemical weapons in an attack on Marea.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34165761

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
14. When will US and our Allies Convene a joint Conference
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 11:43 AM
Sep 2015

to address the failure of our War Policies and the Destruction and of the Middle East and re-examine our failed Policy of Intervention which has caused so much chaos, death and destruction? Where is the UN? The International Red Cross? Are they overwhelmed with the Refugee Crisis with not enough funding to deal with food and water for these thousands?

Our own media is just beginning to show the plight of the refugees but most reports continue to say "refugees from Syria" with the exception of Richard Engel today on ABC who finally included the refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya. And, what about Yemen? We seem to be fine with helping the Saudi's to bomb the place and cause more starvation, death and destruction.

So...we take out Assad. What changes? We take in the 65,000 Syrian refugees...but what about the rest of the refugees from the countries we and our allies have intervened with?

When will someone be held accountable for the failure of our US Foreign Policy which has been at the root of convincing our allies to partner with us to cause all of this?

Why isn't this the Top Topic in our "2016" Presidential Election? When will these War Mongers from the PNAC and MIC be held accountable?



Thanks to you,"bemildred," and the others who keep the informative posts going here in "FA" Group. Sad that we don't have any US Media dedicated to "Foreign Affairs." But...then we know the answer to why that is.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
16. As near as I can tell we are still trying to salvage the careers of the perpetrators of the current
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 11:57 AM
Sep 2015

mess, but I don't think it is going to be left up to us any more. We are known by our works at this point, and our works are not attractive. Nobody wants a refugee crisis on their doorstep, whatever they may say or do about it.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
17. Quite a contrast in the two articles:
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 12:25 PM
Sep 2015

Last edited Sun Sep 6, 2015, 01:42 PM - Edit history (1)

While the first is hopeful for a diplomatic solution (Since King Salman was in DC this week)... the second article with a darker view strikes me as probably what will really occur. But, then its probably a continuing mess either way..

--------

Welcome to the Gulf News Debate. This month we have two of our leading opinion writers arguing on the relevance of Bashar Al Assad in the peace negotiations and future of Syria. For the contrasting view to this article, that is, why it is a completely futile exercise,

Talking to Al Assad is already happening

The West’s policies on Syria remain hazy, but it is clear that the Syrian regime is increasingly perceived as key to the fight against Daesh

By Abdel Bari Atwan, Special to Gulf News
Published: 16:40 August 27, 2015

----snip
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, while insisting that Al Assad must go, has taken to talking of a settlement that will “preserve regime institutions” and this is likely the preferred option among the West and its regional allies.

However, it could be argued that when it comes to the Syrian dictatorship, the institutions of state are inextricably linked with the head of that state — just as they were in the case of Saddam Hussain’s Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya. Is there a risk that in severing the head, the body will be destroyed just when its full strength is required?

It seems that in the short term, the international community will be obliged to talk to Al Assad if it is to effectively confront Daesh and bring an end to the bloodshed and suffering of the Syrian people. In the long term, the West could work to foster democracy in Syria enabling the people, ultimately, to dispose of Al Assad, if they so wish, via the ballot box — something Daesh would never allow.

http://gulfnews.com/opinion/thinkers/talking-to-al-assad-is-already-happening-1.1574152

--------------
Talking with the Al Assad regime is futile

Al Assad actually believed that he was better placed to eliminate his ‘Caliphate’ alter-ego
By Joseph A. Kechichian, Senior Writer


--------snip

There have been no peace talks since the Geneva II meetings in early 2014 and none were expected anytime soon because Damascus dismissed various ideas, including one proposed by John Kerry, who declared in March 2015 that the Syrian president should be part of contemplated talks. Beyond its audacity, most probably spurred by Iranian and Russian prodding, Al Assad rejected this carefully worded hint — delivered in a cynical “declarations from outside do not concern us” — that highlighted the strongman’s state of mind. Unlike the confused politicians in Washington, whose goal apparently is to “destroy” Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) that was not one, Al Assad actually believed that he was better placed to eliminate his ‘Caliphate’ alter-ego.

It was unclear whether Turkey’s most recent decisions to kill two birds with the same stone — Daesh and the Kurdish PKK — would alter western perceptions of Al Assad, though France insisted that the Syrian president could not be part of a negotiated solution to the war. Britain held a similar position, even if the recent unbecoming stampede to Tehran, a consequence of the P5+1 (United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany) accords with Iran over the latter’s nuclear programmes, spoke volumes.

Ironically, Al Assad has repeatedly signalled that he had actually won the war, which implied that a negotiated political transition was off the table. Why negotiate with the vanquished? In the end, Damascus concluded that western powers were far more interested in defeating Daesh than helping the Syrian opposition topple the regime. Under these circumstances, and while the cynical argued that Washington and others worried about who might replace Al Assad — which apparently persuaded them to speak to the strongman — doing so enhanced Daesh and literally ensured that the extremist group might march into Damascus. No one should be surprised when that occurs.

http://gulfnews.com/opinion/thinkers/talking-with-the-al-assad-regime-is-futile-1.1574148

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
18. Those two were easily the most interesting of the bunch.
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 01:05 PM
Sep 2015

More for the facts they assert to support their arguments than the arguments themselves.

I think if you want the war to end you have to talk to Assad, and Iran, and Russia. If you don't, it remains a proxy war and will go on.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
19. Agree...Diplomacy should have priority
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 02:08 PM
Sep 2015

Speaking of Diplomacy. Here's an article I found a bit interesting over at "Politico."

-------------
The State Department hasn’t been authorized in 13 years

Why Congress systematically neglects its main foreign-affairs job.

By Danny Vinik

.....snip for the interesting part.......

[UPDATE: After deadline, a State Department official defended Kerry's work as chair, noting he introduced a reauthorization bill in 2012. "The fact that the State Authorization bill wasn’t passed by the full Senate during his tenure is more a reflection of Senate dysfunction and politics than it is of his leadership and priorities as Chairman," the official wrote in an email. And Philip Arsenault pointed out that Biden chaired the foreign relations committee when the 2002 reauthorization passed.

In the past it’s been the Senate where the bill gets held up; in 2013, a year after the attacks on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, the House passed a State reauthorization that strengthened embassy security by a lopsided 384-37 vote. The Senate never took it up.

This year there’s actually been some Senate movement on the issue. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on State Department reauthorization in April and unanimously passed legislation in June. Senator Bob Corker, the chair of the committee, wants to increase security for overseas embassies and streamline agency operations.

Among other provisions, the bill requires the White House to designate an interagency hostage recovery coordinator (which the administration has created on its own), requires the government to create a “strategy for the Middle East in the event of a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran” and expresses concern about Russia’s actions while reaffirming support for post-Soviet nations.

But Corker’s effort to attach the legislation to the National Defense Authorization Act failed, and his office declined to say what his next move would be.

For State-watchers, it’s just another example of a long and humbling truth: Washington cares more about the military than statecraft. While State hasn’t been reauthorized in 13 years, the Department of Defense has been authorized every year for 53 years in a row.

“I chalk it up number one to the American public and Congress cares, as a whole, less about funding the State Department and more about the Pentagon,” said Goldenberg.
“The Pentagon,” he said, “is much sexier stuff.”

http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/09/the-state-department-hasnt-been-authorized-in-13-years-000219

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
20. Congress likes to be able to sell favors, and the military has ALWAYS been the best place for graft
Sun Sep 6, 2015, 07:28 PM
Sep 2015

since generally it is not held politically accountable for much of anything. When you are out there fighting and dying for America you can get away with all kinds of shit. And they do.

The Pentagon, on the other hand, is dependant on Congress for money and authority, so it sucks up to Congresspersons shamelessly in return.

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Foreign Affairs»Talking to Al Assad is al...