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bemildred

(90,061 posts)
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:18 AM Oct 2015

Can Putin pull off the miracle?

Consider the source.

Reactions to the Russian intervention in Syria essentially fall into three categories: Ambivalence, consternation and enthusiasm.
The first of these is the broad western response. There was little question of deterring Moscow once it had made its mind up to step in, and given that its official agenda highlighted a determination to combat the so-called Daesh, the West found it difficult to reject a military role for Russia out of hand.
There was a sharp intake of breath when the first Russian air strikes struck targets apparently unconnected with Daesh, and the determination to prop up the Assad regime appears to have taken some commentators by surprise. That’s a disingenuous response, given that “stabilizing” the government in Damascus was Moscow’s clear-cut objective from the outset, and there was always the likelihood that it would be more indiscriminate in defining terrorism than the US and its allies.
The consternation comes mainly from Turkey and the Gulf states, all of which are partners to some extent in the US-led military action against Daesh, but are at the same time convinced that Syria’s key problem is Bashar Assad, whose forces have claimed far more Syrian lives than Daesh and the plethora of other opposition groups.

http://www.arabnews.com/columns/news/820056
34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Can Putin pull off the miracle? (Original Post) bemildred Oct 2015 OP
Russian bear roams Arabia’s sands, wets toes in Bosphorus bemildred Oct 2015 #1
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #5
No thanks. nt bemildred Oct 2015 #8
Turkey warns US, Russia over arms supply to Syrian Kurds bemildred Oct 2015 #2
US denies arming Kurdish group in Syria bemildred Oct 2015 #3
Turkish Premier Says Islamic State and PKK Both Played Active Role in Attack bemildred Oct 2015 #17
'US-Russia playing Cold War game’ bemildred Oct 2015 #4
Sensible strategic move by Russia to give Assad support bemildred Oct 2015 #9
Russia’s bold Syrian adventure bemildred Oct 2015 #6
Overcoming America's Failure bemildred Oct 2015 #7
Rebels say US-made missiles turning tide against regime bemildred Oct 2015 #10
Is Russia Getting Its Money’s Worth from Its Syria Campaign? bemildred Oct 2015 #11
Iran’s Losing Major Operatives in Syria bemildred Oct 2015 #12
Iranian Commanders Killed in Syria as Assad, Allies Attack bemildred Oct 2015 #14
US, Russia Holding Talks to Seal Air Safety Agreement in Syria bemildred Oct 2015 #13
US: Forced displacement in northern Syria 'unacceptable' bemildred Oct 2015 #15
. nt bemildred Oct 2015 #16
Secretary of State John Kerry says US must challenge Islamic State, without being embroiled in large bemildred Oct 2015 #18
China says not planning to send military forces to Syria bemildred Oct 2015 #19
Liaoning neither deployed nor engaged... Ghost Dog Oct 2015 #21
+1. nt bemildred Oct 2015 #23
The New Eastern Question: Lebanon and the Russian involvement in Syria bemildred Oct 2015 #20
...1 KoKo Oct 2015 #24
I thought that was well thought out and expressed. bemildred Oct 2015 #26
I know... KoKo Oct 2015 #31
I've just been reading a bunch of different commentaries on the situation in Syria. bemildred Oct 2015 #33
Not quite sure how his proposals would work out, either, though... KoKo Oct 2015 #25
Well, the risks he speaks of are quite real, but hard to evaluate. bemildred Oct 2015 #27
Yes... KoKo Oct 2015 #28
Raqqa’s Hobbesian trap: With battle preparations come fear, paranoia and the looming prospect of ‘re bemildred Oct 2015 #22
Russia, Iran are part of solution in Syria: EU foreign policy chief bemildred Oct 2015 #29
Cuban Troops Join the Russian Offensive in Syria bemildred Oct 2015 #30
Whoa! KoKo Oct 2015 #32
That's because it is bizarre. nt bemildred Oct 2015 #34

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
1. Russian bear roams Arabia’s sands, wets toes in Bosphorus
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:21 AM
Oct 2015
I think Bhadrakumar wanders off into Putin-love here a bit.

The Russian diplomacy took two significant steps toward the Middle East during the past couple of days – engaging Saudi Arabia and sounding out Turkey.

But, Turkey first. Indeed, the warm references to Russia-Turkey relations by the Kremlin chief of staff Sergey Ivanov on Monday were far from accidental. For the benefit of the uninitiated, Ivanov speaks only for President Vladimir Putin. What is less known, perhaps, is that Ivanov is also a veteran ‘Orientalist’ who can fathom the subtleties of Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s ‘Look East’ policies and their import for Russian strategies.

Ivanov stated the obvious when he called attention to the good neighborly relations and close ties between Moscow and Ankara. But his real purpose was to underscore,

Sometimes we [Russia and Turkey] have certain contradictions in international relations but we discuss them publicly and privately and publicly with account for mutual interests.


http://atimes.com/2015/10/russian-bear-roams-arabias-sands-wets-toes-in-bosphorus/

Response to bemildred (Reply #1)

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Turkey warns US, Russia over arms supply to Syrian Kurds
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:22 AM
Oct 2015

In this Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2015, military reinforcements for Iraqi anti-terrorism forces arrive at the Ramadi Stadium after regaining control of the complex and the neighboring al-Bugleeb area. AP Photo
Turkey’s prime minister has lashed out at both the United States and Russia for supplying weapons and support to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) of Syria in its bid to fight extremist jihadists, raising concerns that the arms could be used against Turkey by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an affiliate of the PYD.

Turkey summoned the United States’ ambassador to Turkey, John Bass, on Oct. 13 to the Foreign Ministry to convey Ankara’s strong reaction over the airdropping of ammunition to the PYD late Oct. 11. A similar message was scheduled to be conveyed to Russia later on Oct. 13.

“We have expressed this to the U.S. and Russia in the clearest way. This is an issue of national security for us. Everybody perfectly knows how we take action when it’s about our national security, just like we did on the night of July 23, when we attacked the PKK and Daesh,” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu told Ankara bureau chiefs of newspapers on Oct. 12. Davutoğlu used the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) as he recalled Turkey’s launch of a comprehensive military operation against ISIL and the PKK.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-warns-us-russia-over-arms-supply-to-syrian-kurds.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89820&NewsCatID=510

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
3. US denies arming Kurdish group in Syria
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:23 AM
Oct 2015

A recent US airdrop of arms and ammunitions in Syria went to Syria Arab forces rather than Kurdish rebels, a Defense Department official said Tuesday.

A US C-17 cargo aircraft dropped approximately 50 tons of ammunition to the Syrian rebel group during the weekend but it was yet to be clarified which groups they were and what the content of the airdrop was.

Col. Steve Warren, spokesman for US-led coalition, told reporters that the group who received the air drop was the Syrian Arab Coalition “a group of smaller Syrian-Arab fighters who have, on their own, joined together to form a coalition”

He said they number 5,000 troops.

http://www.albawaba.com/news/us-denies-arming-kurdish-group-syria-754624

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
17. Turkish Premier Says Islamic State and PKK Both Played Active Role in Attack
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 09:12 AM
Oct 2015
Erdogan finds a solution to his dilemma.

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s premier said Wednesday that Islamic State and Kurdish separatists both played active roles in the country’s deadliest terrorist attack, and took aim at the U.S. and Russia for what he said was threatening Turkey’s safety with policies supporting Syrian Kurdish militias.

Four days after twin suicide bombings in the capital, Ankara, killed at least 97 people, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said investigations showed the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, was also involved in the assault he earlier said was most likely carried out by Islamic State.

“We will continue our probes to exhaust all these organizational ties,” Mr. Davutoglu said in Istanbul. “Regardless of who did this through what links, we will identify those who carried out this vile attack and deliver them to justice.”

The Turkish government faces a resurgent conflict with the PKK—which is pushing for more autonomy in the country’s southeast—and regularly lumps it in with Islamic State, arguing that both are terrorist groups who pose a major threat to Turkey’s stability.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-detains-two-people-over-bomb-tweets-posted-before-ankara-blasts-1444814304

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
4. 'US-Russia playing Cold War game’
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:26 AM
Oct 2015

BEIJING: China’s top newspaper accused both the United States and Russia of replaying their Cold War rivalry by engaging in military action in Syria, saying they needed to realise that era is over and should instead push for peace talks.

The People’s Daily, the official paper of China’s ruling Communist Party, said yesterday in a com­­mentary that the United States and Russia seemed to be using Syria as a proxy for diplomatic and military competition, as during the Cold War.

“The United States and the Soviet Union used all sorts of diplomatic, economic and military actions on the soil of third countries, playing tit-for-tat games to increase their influence – it’s an old scene from the Cold War,” the newspaper wrote in a commentary.

“But we’re in the 21st century now, and people need to get their heads around this!”

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Regional/2015/10/14/USRussia-playing-Cold-War-game-Both-nations-engaging-in-titfortat-military-action-in-Syria-says-Peop/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. Sensible strategic move by Russia to give Assad support
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:33 AM
Oct 2015

Russia's direct military involvement in the fight against the Islamic State group in Syria could have a far-reaching impact on both international anti-terror efforts in the Middle East and the political terrain in the region.

Russia began airstrikes on IS targets in Syria on Sept 30 at the request of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The move has drawn widespread suspicion and criticism from Western countries which believe Moscow is backing its long-term ally Assad and helping the latter to combat the country's rebels.

Yet, there is no denying that Moscow's military involvement is a sensible strategic move in response to the ineffectiveness of United States' strategic maneuvers in the region in the past few years.

To some extent, persistent US support to arming moderate opposition forces in the Middle East and its half-heartedness in fighting the IS group have aggravated Russia's security outlook and reduced the strategic space of its allies in the region.

http://en.people.cn/n/2015/1014/c90000-8961578.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. Russia’s bold Syrian adventure
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:28 AM
Oct 2015

An important recent development in the increasingly complex Middle East imbroglio is Russia’s open military intervention in the Syrian theatre. Moscow has been known to support the Bashar al-Assad regime in all sorts of ways but had refrained from jumping into the fray militarily. It is now conducting aerial bombings of rebel positions, storing and deploying heavy armaments at its naval base in Syria and is even said to have some ground troops for limited operations. Moscow’s justification for this is multi-fold. First, it is doing this at the invitation of the legitimate Syrian government of President Assad. Second, it is doing it to fight terrorism, which the Assad regime has been doing on its own. Third, its timing would appear to be dictated by the seemingly imminent danger to the Assad regime from multiple jihadi and rebel forces converging on it.

For Moscow, even though Islamic State (IS) is the main target, it is pointless to be splitting hairs to determine who is who among the jihadis because, in the end, they are all terrorists wanting to create an even bigger blood bath of their presumed enemies. They are also a threat to Russia and its interests as some among them are former Chechen rebels and commanders now fighting for IS and other jihadi groups. Russia would hate them and IS to score even more gains, with the prospect of some of the Chechen rebels and their new compatriots returning to settle old scores with the Russian state. Therefore, it is not simply bravado on Russia’s part to help the Assad regime, it is also in its self-interest to deal with them as far away from the country as is possible.

There is also an important geopolitical reason: President Putin has never forgotten and forgiven the collapse of the Soviet state as a global power. He called it the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century. Its shrunken version, the Russian state he has been presiding over for much of the new century, has been facing further pressures to constrict and constrain its role, including a perceived threat from an expanded NATO that now also includes some eastern European and Baltic countries that were either once under the protective Soviet umbrella or its integral part. This led Moscow to push back when Ukraine was sought to be included in the European Union, with the prospect of its subsequent inclusion in NATO. The crisis in Ukraine is still unresolved for which Russia is facing a slew of economic sanctions from the US and its European allies.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/14-Oct-2015/russia-s-bold-syrian-adventure

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
7. Overcoming America's Failure
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:31 AM
Oct 2015

Two British MP’s propose a plan for Syria, offering at least some evidence of moral leadership that’s lacking elsewhere.

http://www.macleans.ca/authors/michael-petrou/overcoming-americas-failure/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
10. Rebels say US-made missiles turning tide against regime
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:34 AM
Oct 2015

American-made anti-tank missiles are turning the tide against the Syrian regime and allied forces in a major battle in the country’s centre and northwest, rebel groups said Tuesday.

Non-Islamist opposition factions say they are using the US-made TOW missiles to halt a Syrian army advance that is backed by Russian air strikes in the provinces of Hama and Idlib.

The deliveries are distinct from ammunition packages that a US-led coalition airdropped to Arab rebel groups in northeastern Syria late Sunday to bolster the fight against the extremist Islamic State group.

“These rockets have played an important role in stopping the fierce attack by the Syrian regime and its Russian ally,” said Asaad Hanna, spokesman for the non-Islamist Division 101.

http://www.defencetalk.com/rebels-say-us-made-missiles-turning-tide-against-regime-65635/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
11. Is Russia Getting Its Money’s Worth from Its Syria Campaign?
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:35 AM
Oct 2015

Rough estimates suggest that Moscow has spent at least $87 million for air and cruise-missile strikes in the first two weeks of its bombing campaign in Syria that began September 30.

With that relatively modest investment, the Kremlin has made itself a player that cannot be ignored in the Syrian conflict as it backs ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s bid to remain in power. The strikes also have enabled Syrian government forces to make significant gains against the rebels, with advances reported on October 11 in the northwestern province of Idlib and the neighboring province of Hama.

But perhaps just as importantly, the strikes have enabled Moscow to renew its claim to be a superpower as Russia defies Western sanctions over its intervention in Ukraine, which, along with low oil prices, have crippled its economy.

“These strikes were the final move to claim the status of a great power,” says Igor Sutyagin, senior research fellow for Russian studies at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “Now Russia has finished its replication of all the attributes a great power like the United States has.”

http://www.defencetalk.com/is-russia-getting-its-moneys-worth-from-its-syria-campaign-65621/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
12. Iran’s Losing Major Operatives in Syria
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:37 AM
Oct 2015

With the aid of Russian airstrikes, Iranian-backed foreign fighters, and a combination of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regular and militia forces are on the march. Yet Iran and its proxies have taken some significant high-ranking casualties since the start of their recruitment and deployment drives to Syria.

These losses all serve to map out the current offensive being launched in the northwest of the country, including Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo. While other significant losses had been suffered in past engagements, deaths of key members were often more sporadic or concentrated on one group during a specific battle. If the goal is to secure an Assad-led coastal Syrian rump-state, it is coming at high cost to Assad’s Iranian ally.

The most well known of Tehran’s casualties was the 67 year old Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General, Hossein Hamedani. Announced as having been killed on October 9th, Hamedi was reportedly killed in Aleppo. Officially, he was described by the Iranians as a, “high-ranking military advisor” to Assad. But to write Hamedani off as merely an “advisor” would be the equivalent of referring to Napoleon as just, “a French general.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/14/iran-s-losing-major-operatives-in-syria.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
14. Iranian Commanders Killed in Syria as Assad, Allies Attack
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:41 AM
Oct 2015

Two more Iranian commanders were reported to have been killed in Syria, where Iran and now Russia are supporting a renewed offensive against rebels by President Bashar al-Assad’s army.

The latest Iranian casualties were both commanders of brigades of the Revolutionary Guards, according to Tasnim news agency, which is close to the force. It didn’t say where they died. On Friday, Brigadier General Hassan Hamedani, the head of the Guards’ elite Quds Force in Syria, was said to have been killed on the outskirts of the northern city of Aleppo in clashes with Islamic State militants.

Iran has been Assad’s main external supporter in the Syrian civil war, in which more than 250,000 people have died and millions more have been driven from their homes. Since the end of September it’s been joined by Russia, which started bombing Islamic State and other opposition groups. That’s been the catalyst for a renewed offensive by Assad’s army and its Iranian allies on the ground, with battles raging around the key cities of Aleppo and Hama.

The Syrian army is preparing for a new attack in the Aleppo area, and thousands of Iranian troops have arrived to take part in that and other offensives, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing unidentified officials.

http://www.businessweekme.com/Bloomberg/newsmid/190/newsid/1310/Iranian-Commanders-Killed-in-Syria-as-Assad-Allies-Attack

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
13. US, Russia Holding Talks to Seal Air Safety Agreement in Syria
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:40 AM
Oct 2015

U.S. and Russian defense officials are holding more talks Wednesday on safety procedures for their crews flying missions over Syria.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Tuesday that the discussions are progressing and that he expects an agreement "in very short order" to help prevent a potential mid-air disaster involving U.S. and Russian aircraft.

"Even as we continue to disagree on Syria policy, we should be able to at least agree on making sure that airman are as safe as possible," Carter said at a news conference in Boston Tuesday. "Russia must act professionally in the skies over Syria and abide by basic safety procedures."

Russia's Defense Ministry issued a statement Tuesday saying it had prepared suggestions and was sending a draft to the Americans.

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-russia-holding-talks-to-seal-air-safety-agreement-in-syria/3005209.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
15. US: Forced displacement in northern Syria 'unacceptable'
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 05:42 AM
Oct 2015

WASHINGTON

Reports of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party's (PYD) forced displacement and home demolitions in northern Syria, if proved to be true, are "unacceptable”, the U.S. said Tuesday.

Considering these incidents as "allegations and accusations," Toner stated the U.S. was monitoring the issue to determine the credibility of the claims.

"We take these allegations quite seriously, and we've made clear to all the actors that such behavior, frankly, is unacceptable and we'll look closely at all these accusations to determine whether there's any veracity to the claims," said Toner.

"We've been very clear about that for the past five, six months in speaking about the YPG and its actions in northern Syria, as well as the case of Syrian Arabs and other groups and Turkmen who are fighting against ISIL there."

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/guncel/us-forced-displacement-in-northern-syria-unacceptable/438905

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
18. Secretary of State John Kerry says US must challenge Islamic State, without being embroiled in large
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 09:14 AM
Oct 2015

CAMBRIDGE - Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday called the conflict in Syria "a human catastrophe." Kerry said the civil war is "a disaster that screams at all of us in public life to exercise responsibility and try to find a solution."

Kerry said the U.S. must challenge ISIL, the Islamic State, a jihadi force that has brutally massacred civilians and made gains in Syria and elsewhere. (ISIL is used to refer to the Islamic State in Lebanon, while ISIS, which is more commonly used, refers to Syria.)

"Any group of people publicly cutting off heads and shooting people in the back of the head... licensing rape as a matter of daily life, those people need to be challenged by civility and decency from the world," Kerry said.

Yet at the same time, Kerry said the U.S. needs to fight ISIL "in a way that doesn't embroil us in a larger war," and that does not place American troops on the ground.

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/10/secretary_of_state_john_kerry_10.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
19. China says not planning to send military forces to Syria
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 09:15 AM
Oct 2015

China said Wednesday it had no plans to send its military to Syria to fight with Russian forces after reports in overseas media that it was planning to do so.

Chinese media has picked up Russian and Middle Eastern news reports that China would fight alongside Russia in Syria, and that China’s sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, could participate too.

Chinese media has also described these reports as speculative nonsense.

“As far as I know, there are no such plans,” foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily news briefing, when asked if China had or would send forces to Syria. “Recently, the Liaoning aircraft carrier went to carry out technical tests and military drills,” she added, without elaborating.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/vietnam-says-chinese-lighthouses-in-disputed-south-china-sea-will-escalate-tension/

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
21. Liaoning neither deployed nor engaged...
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 10:06 AM
Oct 2015

16:00 14.10.2015
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that Beijing does not have plans to (deploy) an aircraft carrier to Syria to help Russian forces in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIL).

BEIJING (Sputnik) — Beijing has no intentions to send an aircraft carrier to Syria to help Russian forces in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIL) jihadist group, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Wednesday, denying media reports.

Beginning on September 30, when Russian Aerospace Forces commenced pinpoint airstrikes against ISIL positions in Syria at President Bashar Assad's request, reports have appeared in the media claiming that Beijing was preparing to join Moscow to fight ISIL, by way of sending its sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to the site.

"We have noticed that a lot of rumors and reports have appeared about China's involvement in Syria. As far as I know, there are no such plans. For instance, the Liaoning aircraft carrier is still being used for scientific purposes," she said during a daily news briefing. Several Chinese media have refuted claims concerning Liaoning's involvement in military operations in the war-torn country.


Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20151014/1028515296/china-syria-involvement.html#ixzz3oYDXcj1L

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
20. The New Eastern Question: Lebanon and the Russian involvement in Syria
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 09:42 AM
Oct 2015

An old women who lived in a remote village had a chronic rodent problem. Her neighbour suggested that she approaches the two super powers at the time, the USSR and the United States for a possible solution. Desperate, this women walks up to the US and Russian embassies and at each asks to meet an official. Ecstatic at her request, the American diplomat jumps to his feet, shakes the old women’s hand and declares that the US government will stand by her in the ongoing fight to vanquish the rodents. After hearing her out, the Russian diplomat briefly leaves the room to return with a cat that will be sufficient to get rid of the rodents.

This Cold War parable is perhaps very befitting of the current situation in Syria and how the current super powers (USA and Russia) are dealing with the current conflict both in Syria as well as in the region.

Russia, and the Soviets before it, have always supported Syria in different capacities. However, Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to deploy troops in Syria marks an important departure from earlier practices of indirect involvement to the ever dangerous boots on the ground scenario.

Perhaps it is the first time since the end of the Eastern Question that the Russian Empire has been so invested in the affairs of the Levant and Syria. In the same manner that the five superpowers of the 19th century were interested in the fate of the collapsing Ottoman Empire and what would follow, Russia stands in a somewhat similar positions vis-a-vis Bashar al-Assad’s fate and that of the whole area.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/new-eastern-question-lebanon-and-russian-involvement-syria-1245774992

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
26. I thought that was well thought out and expressed.
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 02:59 PM
Oct 2015

I think a lot depends on how the Iranians do on the ground, in Iraq and in Syria. As it sits I don't think the Turks or Sauds will jump in, they are kind of tied up, but if Iran bogs down they might be tempted to try it anyway. That would be a right mess.

I think the deal Putin cut with Assad was one last offensive with Russian air cover and ground support, and then we negotiate. And he is wagering it won't get bigger, the war, he could lose that bet.

As it stands I don't think either Erdodgan or the Sauds can afford to do it. But reason will only take you so far.

And the Iranians haven't been all that sophisticated in the past, so they might well get bogged down.

Makes me want to hide.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
31. I know...
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 08:17 PM
Oct 2015

MSM U.S./Allies News is calling for miscalculation by Putin and Catastrophic Loss by Russia with this Intervention.

It's hard to hear all that MSM/MIC NOISE and not be convinced that Russia wasn't going into Syria on MACHO/Bravado with ambitions to be the Power Broker in the Syrian situation to regain it's "Stature & Power in the World Power Axis."

I think we are led to believe that Putin is either a "Fool of his Own Ego" set to "fall on his face in humiliation" or that WE in the US have used our well connected Think Tanks of the "MIC" to entrap him in a situation which will cause so much Blow Back to the Russian Economy that there will be "Regime Change" coming in the near future for Putin/Russia for daring to intervene in our "U.S./Allies/NATO Affairs."
Therefore, our somewhat brutal and erratic Foreign Policy in the ME and North Africa might hobble on long enough to get us through the Next U.S. Election and then it will be time to pass the whole festering mess of a situation off to someone else's worry

Whatever is coming up now...will continue until there are obvious people to take the Blame before we pass the baton in late January 2017.

That's the Dark Scenario.....But, What IF the New Russia/Iran Alliance to Stabilize the Syrian Situation has Some Success? I don't hear anyone seeming to say there might be hope for that. And, maybe they are correct. Russia Overstepped and will fail as they did in Afghanistan...

But..........Then... It's such a mess its hard to make much sense out of any of it...but, we keep reading and trying to make sense of it. Nothing wrong with keeping informed as citizens, though.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
33. I've just been reading a bunch of different commentaries on the situation in Syria.
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 08:42 PM
Oct 2015

Plausible, well reasoned, and wildly incompatible.

In the end I think it depends on what happens on the ground in the next few days or weeks. "Combat creates clarity". We will soon know who knows what they are about.

And I do wonder what Putin will do if the Iranians prove not up to the job? That would worry me if I was him.

---

You always have to allow for situations where you can't make sense of them BECAUSE they don't make sense. i. e. sometimes it's not you that is failing to make sense. In fact that is common. I think most wars are arguably mistakes by one side or both. The USA has done itself more harm "defending itself" than any foreign actor has ever come close to attacking us.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
25. Not quite sure how his proposals would work out, either, though...
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 02:50 PM
Oct 2015

Things are too far advanced at this point to just let them settle it themselves...
------------

While the other anti-Assad Lebanese factions have condemned the Russian move in Syria, none of them have the power nor the will to prevent this Russian undertaking from wreaking more havoc on an already sinking Lebanese ship. A vision which their counterparts do not seem to share.

The events of the Syrian crisis has thus far shown all the elements of a traditional civil war with its regional and international elements at play. While Russia can afford to play this regional game and go against the wishes of the Sunnis and their allies, Aoun as well as Hezbollah have everything to lose from this Russian gamble if it falls through.

While the allegory mentioned above gives more credence to the Russian cat rather than the American handshake, perhaps the best way for the Lebanese and their Syrian neighbours to get rid of rodents is to clean one’s house rather than rely on foreigners to do the job for them.

- Makram Rabah is a PhD candidate at Georgetown University’s history department. He is the author of “A Campus at War: Student Politics at the American University of Beirut, 1967–1975” and a regular columnist for Now Lebanon.


bemildred

(90,061 posts)
27. Well, the risks he speaks of are quite real, but hard to evaluate.
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 03:03 PM
Oct 2015

He seems like a smart fellow to me, but Lebanon is internally divided and as long as that is true it's hard to do much, just like in the US for that matter. And they are a small country, smack in the middle of things.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
28. Yes...
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 03:56 PM
Oct 2015

their location doesn't help them with what is swirling on their borders all around them. Not even able to get enough government together just to deal with the garbage takes it down to a personal level that fuels the divisions more.

What a mess...

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
22. Raqqa’s Hobbesian trap: With battle preparations come fear, paranoia and the looming prospect of ‘re
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 10:09 AM
Oct 2015
he prospect of a final showdown with the Islamic State for the heart of its so-called caliphate in A-Raqqa has reached the north-central desert city. Trenches have been dug and earthen barriers placed at key cities’ entrances and exits.

As the Islamic State’s paranoia grows, sending squads sent to hunt down deserters, civilians are bracing for the worst, a scenario which Furat al-Wafaa says is inevitable.

“Whichever side gains the upper hand during the battle will work to eradicate any danger at all that the other side poses,” says al-Wafaa, a current member of Reporters Without Borders and former activist with Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently. That includes not only supporters of any given side, but perceived supporters.

The possibility of the imminent collapse of the Islamic State raises the specter of not only chaos, but what al-Wafaa calls “revenge operations.”


http://syriadirect.org/news/raqqa%E2%80%99s-hobbesian-trap-with-battle-preparations-come-fear-paranoia-and-the-looming-prospect-of-%E2%80%98revenge-operations%E2%80%99/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
29. Russia, Iran are part of solution in Syria: EU foreign policy chief
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 07:28 PM
Oct 2015

Amid reports of a combined Syrian-Russian-Iranian ground offensive in Syria, the West must talk to Tehran to broker an end to the conflict, a senior EU official said on Wednesday.

Speaking to reporters, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said both Russia and Iran need to be at the negotiating table.

“If we want the political situation to move inside Syria, and the political process to start immediately, we need to involve the actors that have an influence, a direct influence on the regime. And that is why both Russia and Iran are crucial,” the former Italian foreign minister said.

Mogherini had held high-level talks with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Tuesday; the pair focused on how to bring peace to Syria and combat Islamic State jihadi fighters there.

http://www.euronews.com/2015/10/14/russia-iran-are-part-of-solution-in-syria-eu-foreign-policy-chief/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
30. Cuban Troops Join the Russian Offensive in Syria
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 07:30 PM
Oct 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made waves of late with his military offensive in Syria, and now he has on-the-ground backing of the Cuban variety. One of the world’s leading centers for research on Cuba has released breaking details of the Castro regime’s presence in the war-torn Middle Eastern nation.

The Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami shared via email on October 13, 2015, that General Leopoldo Cintra Frías, head of the Cuban Armed Forces, had already landed in Syria. He is, they write, “leading a group of Cuban military personnel … in support of Syria’s dictator Assad” and, in Cold War fashion, the Russian contingent.

The ICCAS researchers shared with the PanAm Post that the intelligence came directly from a spokesman of the US Defense Department, and is corroborated by an unnamed but friendly military in the Middle East. They report two Russian-made planes arriving in Syria carrying approximately 300 Cuban soldiers.

They further detail that the Cuban soldiers will man Russian tanks that have been provided to Syrian head-of-state Bashar al-Assad. Their duty will be to fight Islamic State forces and others who threaten Assad’s grip on power.

http://panampost.com/panam-staff/2015/10/13/miami-university-center-reports-cuban-troops-deployed-to-syria/

These guys may have a bias ...

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
32. Whoa!
Wed Oct 14, 2015, 08:38 PM
Oct 2015

This report seems so Bizarre....I would think so....that there might be a bias. "Miami University Center" and many in FLA are not happy with the deal of the U.S. with Cuba.

I guess no one should be surprised at the amount of disinfo floating around with so many "special interests" out there vying.

But, this seems very bizarre... Probably makes good "Click Bait" for some news sites going forward.


The ICCAS researchers shared with the PanAm Post that the intelligence came directly from a spokesman of the US Defense Department, and is corroborated by an unnamed but friendly military in the Middle East. They report two Russian-made planes arriving in Syria carrying approximately 300 Cuban soldiers.

They further detail that the Cuban soldiers will man Russian tanks that have been provided to Syrian head-of-state Bashar al-Assad. Their duty will be to fight Islamic State forces and others who threaten Assad’s grip on power.

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