DOHUK, Kurdistan Region— The Mosul Dam is at risk of collapsing in several areas and the safety of Iraq’s second largest city is at risk, said the director of the dam, who is calling for urgent action.

“If it collapses, most of the city of Mosul will be flooded and up to half a million people could immediately be endangered,” Riyaz Izzadin, the dam director, told Rudaw on Wednesday.

Izzadin said last year’s airstrikes and clashes between Peshmerga forces and Islamic State militants have “substantially” damaged parts of the dam, which stretches 3 kilometers and towers 113 meters. It provides the city of Mosul 750 megawatts of power.

“The US personnel are frequently visiting the dam and are well aware of the dangers, but they don’t want to say it to us openly,” Izzadin said, adding that it could trigger panic among residents in Nineveh province.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/04122015

Baghdad says the entry of a battalion of Turkish troops is a violation of its sovereignty. Iraq's foreign ministry has described the activity as "an incursion" and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Turkish forces.

In a statement released early on Saturday, Iraq's foreign ministry hit out at the apparent deployment of several hundred Turkish troops to an area near Mosul.

It demanded that the soldiers - who were sent to provide training for troops loyal to a regional governor - withdraw immediately, describing their entry as a violation of its sovereignty.

The statement, broadcast on state TV, described the Turkish deployment as "an incursion," adding that the military operation was not coordinated with the federal government in Baghdad.

http://www.dw.com/en/turkish-soldiers-enter-northern-iraq-baghdad-demands-swift-withdrawal/a-18896263

This war is so messed up.

snip* Interestingly, when U.S. officials were asked to comment on the veracity of the claim, an American military officer reportedly admitted such massive shipments were known to be taking place.

When asked why the U.S. had not done something about the illegal shipments, the officer said the U.S. had to find a way to adequately warn the truck drivers involved in the shipments — who might be unaware of the shipment’s illegality — that they would be attacked by military aircraft if shipments proceeded.

Many in Canada might understandably find it difficult to believe that Turkey, a NATO ally, might be involved in assisting ISIS, which badly needs the huge revenues from the oilfields it still controls. But those familiar with President Erdogan won’t be completely surprised by his purported involvement in helping ISIS obtain oil revenue to support its control in the region.

In recent times, Erdogan and members of his ruling party, along some family members including Bilal, were accused of involvement in receiving large-scale illegal payments in Turkey from various sources.

Erdogan, then the prime minister, used his office to have almost every important official investigating the corruption scandal either transferred or dismissed, despite seemingly credible evidence of his own involvement in the payoffs.

Many Turks, long accustomed to Erdogan’s determination to use any means to advance his political and other objectives, believe he provoked a crisis with Kurdish guerrilla fighters in order to rally the Turkish population around his ruling party in recent elections.

- See more at: http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/harry-sterling-turkey-s-erdogan-accused-of-aiding-isis-1.2126760#sthash.KKncJl4h.dpuf

and apparently about to train the Iraqi national army too:

Everybody does seem to have been forced far off script by events.

Worried that Partisan forces in Europe might be a threat to Soviet Occupation, Stalin gave many weapons and pressed them into the fight. The support being substantial, and was enough to encourage the Partisans. They took so many casualties, that by the Soviets arrived, few were left to cause trouble.

---

The NATO’s supreme deputy commander General Adrian Bradshaw was frank about the alliance’s objective when he said recently, “Freedom of navigation (in the Mediterranean) is fundamentally important to NATO. As we observe the deployment of more sophisticated (Russian) capabilities with considerable reach, it becomes more and more important that we refresh our deterrence”.

Clearly, the Russian-Turkish tensions have provided the alibi for the NATO to boost its military presence in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean even as the alliance counsels Moscow and Ankara to “deescalate”. The NATO meeting on Wednesday stated that Turkey is on the frontlines of regional stability to the south, and, therefore, the alliance will beef up its maritime and missile defences as well as send more surveillance drones to its “highly unstable” border with Syria.

In Stoltenberg’s words, “We (NATO) have approved a new strategy on hybrid warfare. We are also improving our intelligence and early warning mechanisms to help us better understand the region and increase our situational awareness”.

Suffice it to say, NATO has decided to send a stark message to Moscow that it cannot hope to dominate Syria (or Iraq), and if it persists on the present path, Turkey will resist Russia (and Iran) on the ground under NATO protection. Thus, in rapid moves, British, French and German warplanes are being deployed in Incirlik; hundreds of German military personnel are arriving in Incirlik; Italy has decided to deploy Patriot missiles in Turkey (a similar move by Spain is expected); Denmark is dispatching frigates to protect Turkey from Russia’s S-400 missiles and to provide electronic intelligence through jammers; US has decided to keep the USS Donald Cook in the region (equipped with Aegis missile defence systems and Tomahawk missiles that can protect Turkey from ballistic missile attacks).

http://atimes.com/2015/12/nato-taunts-russia-turkey-makes-hay/

Last edited Sat Dec 5, 2015, 04:18 PM - Edit history (1)

M.K. Bhadrakumar seems to have had a pretty good track record in reporting. Is that your impression? I had wondered what the hustle was for UK and Germany to get the votes to to enter into the Syrian situation. Didn't know about the Montenegro vote into NATO, but it all fits into as he says: The Game is Afoot...

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He sometimes, as in this case IMHO, pushes his theorizing beyond what the facts allow.

He has a certain point of view, as we all do.

As Jefferson said: Yikes.

And as I have said before about the War Party, they always double down, they never give up until they are removed. And that is what we see here, continued attempts at provocation.

There have been political games going on in Iraqi Kurdistan for some weeks, I have not paid it much attention, but I would wager it is connected with this story about Turkey training Iraqi forces, the question is why is Turkey wanting to train Barzani's forces? Or is that a cover story?

Yes that one with the "Godfather" sounding Mafia like name that both Pepe and V.J. Prashad pointed out controls the oil smuggling along with Erdogan's son. It must have been devastating for Erdogan (and, others) to see that info come out in the media.

As to the Bhadrakumar article...it leaves one thinking that the "PTB" decided Russia was getting to much recognition in Syria and decided to make a stand to take attention away to regain control of the "narrative" for NATO interests.

I did think Bhadrakumar was off a bit thinking that Spain would come in given after the Madrid Bombing they pulled back support in the ME. But, then, he might be seeing something there, that while sounding conspiratorial, (the ""Game is Afoot&quot , could have a bit, or maybe more, of truth as things unfold. The differing reporting gets to be OTT sometimes. Still, good to see it.

From the article:

1.) Yes, I see you found it.

2.) There are other explanations. Let me ask you, do you see our current ruling elites in the West suddenly coming together in an outburst of competence? I find it most unlikely, and my current hypothesis as to why the various EUcrats are suddenly hot to get some war on is Paris, the refugees, the need to show solidarity, and the fear of being left out. Not Russia. The Baltic states fear Russia, not France.

Edit:

3.) Which is not to say that the Neocons are not trying to stir the pot in Syria, they are, but they show little sign of having an actual plan, as usual, and they continue to play catchup as other people make the moves.

I think I over reacted to his article.

In my interpretation of his article, I saw him suggesting that Russia's intervention in Syria with their aggressive actions in bombing the oil tanker transports and success in destroying some of the Isis Operations made Turkey and NATO very uncomfortable.

When Russia revealed the Turkish Smuggling Operations and put out their own surveillance videos of the shooting down of the Russian fighter jet (concluding that Turkey intentionally shot it down) this was an affront to NATO. The decision was made by the NATO brass that there needed to be a show of solidarity by the allies to confront what was seen as Russia as assuming too much international attention and control in Syria and needed to smacked down for defying a NATO member.

As you point out, though. Its probably more about stemming the Refugee crisis that Germany and France are involved in the bombings and nothing much to do with the Turkey/Russia dispute.

Whose ego has been bruised by events, who has been exposed as a fool, who has had their delusions of grandeur punctured, and which bystanders must pay for the affront.

A lot of the Putin bashing has that sort of motivation behind it, it's not just that he is a pejorative-of-your-choice, it's that he showed us up, insults us, and thwarts our plans. It's a staple of US "information outreach" to go after such people. Something to keep the media busy when there are no political campaigns.

But usually that sort of thing can wait, is not allowed to get out of hand, business comes first. And that is what I expect here, after a decent interval of threats and whining.

Accommodations will need to be made for Barzini and the Erdogan progeny. Payoffs, bribes...alternative investments.

"Reconstruction of Syria/Iraq/Libya" might be an incentive to get things moving somewhere down the line. Provide housing and jobs for those who wish to return. An investment for the future in something other than destruction. That's if there's any habital land left after this much bombing and the toxic waste it leaves behind. Still, as China slows and the Eurozone has embraced austerity for awhile longer --surely the investment money of the 1% can find something to make profit out of the ME that is more beneficial than profiting off of WMD and endless war.

Never happen, though.

Although I do see such ideas timidly suggested here and there.

I remember the Marshall Plan and the Berlin Airlift, we are governed by mental and moral midgets, and I mean no offense to actual midgets. All they care about in the world is getting re-elected and staying connected to the money and power spigot.

And God only knows what the morons at the Pentagon and the spooks think they are up to, it must be pretty bizarre though.

Accommodations will need to be made for Barzini and the Erdogan progeny. Payoffs, bribes...alternative investments.

"Reconstruction of Syria/Iraq/Libya" might be an incentive to get things moving somewhere down the line. Provide housing and jobs for those who wish to return. An investment for the future in something other than destruction. That's if there's any habital land left after this much bombing and the toxic waste it leaves behind. Still, as China slows and the Eurozone has embraced austerity for awhile longer --surely the investment money of the 1% can find something to make profit out of the ME that is more beneficial than profiting off of WMD and endless war.

Never happen, though.

BEIRUT, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Syria slammed Turkey on Sunday for deploying hundreds of troops in neighbouring Iraq, accusing Ankara of playing a "destructive role" against both Arab countries.

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has described the deployment as a routine rotation of forces that set up a camp almost a year ago near the northern city of Mosul, which is controlled by Islamic State militants.

Davutoglu says the troops had originally been deployed in coordination with Iraqi authorities, but Baghdad demanded the their withdrawal on Saturday.

The Syrian foreign ministry joined the row, saying in a statement that it "condemns the flagrant Turkish violation of Iraqi territory, which comes as a continuation of the destructive role (Ankara) is playing against Syria and Iraq". The statement was carried on Syrian state television.

http://www.trust.org/item/20151206133542-jxv89/

ANKARA - Turkey on Sunday said it was "astonished" by Iranian accusations that Ankara is supporting Islamic State and involved in oil dealing with the jihadists in Iraq and Syria.

Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Tanju Bilgic said in a statement there was nothing in Tehran's accusations to take "seriously."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday he had warned his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani over some Iranian media reports that he and his family were involved in oil trade with ISIS jihadists.

Erdogan said that he spoke with Rouhani on the phone and told him: "You will pay a high price if it continues like that." He added that the Iranians later removed the news from their website.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=74279

wording was but pretty brass set of Erdogan to use threatening language like that.
I guess he is emboldened by the NATO hugs.

The piece that follows this is an interesting effort in the direction of settling things down though, from a Turkish source.

Turkish-American relations are at an impasse over the Kurdish question in Syria. Washington's top priority in Syria is to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and to use proxy forces such as Syrian Kurds as the most effective boots on the ground. Ankara, wary of its own Kurdish population and particularly the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), is extremely reluctant to see Syrian Kurds armed and otherwise assisted by Washington. At the heart of the problem is the fact that Syrian Kurds are mostly aligned with the PKK.

There are no easy answers here but there may in fact be a plausible path forward -- a strategy that, if Washington were to adopt it, could assuage many Turkish concerns and lead to gradual progress in the campaign to put real military pressure on both ISIL and the Bashar al-Assad regime. The first element of the new strategy begins with a more realistic framing of the military goals of the international coalition opposing both Assad and ISIL. Washington must take the lead on this. The starting point is to begin with a vision for the future of Syria based on a confederation.

Declaring such a goal could help reconcile, or at least “de-conflict,” American and Turkish views on the conflict. By now, it must be clear that aspiring to a strong successor government to the Assad regime is hoping for a miracle. Even if such a government could be constructed on paper, what army is going to give it authority? A confederal model for Syria, though still ambitious, could help reduce the chasm between ends and means, making the strategy more credible.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/omer-taspinar/a-new-approach-to-syria_406246.html

Erdogan's reaction, cooperation?

, Ankara should immediately restart negotiations with the organization and this time quickly deliver on its promises of democratic reforms and a new constitution.

Competing agendas abound, unfortunately.

There was one in a British mag. I read earlier.

And realisticially, that is about as unified as Syria is likely to be for a while.

The shape Syria is in now, if those goals were achieved it would seem
like a state of nirvana for those poor people...safe bet they'd agree.

AFP, Tehran Sunday, 6 December 2015

Iran said on Sunday it was its “duty” to mediate between Russia and Turkey as they trade accusations of buying oil from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

“Iran has a duty to reduce tensions between Russia and Turkey and it’s not good to have another tension added to the existing ones in the region,” Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted as saying by the official Irna news agency.

Russia and Iran are major backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Ankara is supporting rebels fighting Assad and earlier this year joined a U.S.-led coalition bombing ISIS in Syria.

Turkey is currently at loggerheads with Russia after downing one of Moscow’s warplanes on November 24.

Russia has accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family of involvement in the oil trade with ISIS -- charges blasted as “slander” and “immoral” by the Turkish strongman.

Erdogan last week hit back, saying Turkey had “proof” that Moscow was buying oil from the miltiants in Syria.

Iranian media then picked up Russia’s claims prompting Erdogan to lash out at his Iranian counterpart.

Erdogan said he had warned President Hassan Rouhani in a telephone conversation that Iran would “pay a high price if it continues” to accuse Ankara.

Mohsen Rezaie, secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council, said Iranian military advisors on the ground in Iraq and Syria had images of IS oil trucks going to Turkey.

But Velayati later told state television the evidence Russia had released to support its claims meant “there is no need to publish more documents.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/12/06/Iran-It-s-our-duty-to-mediate-in-Turkey-Russia-spat.html