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DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
Thu Sep 21, 2017, 11:53 AM Sep 2017

Russia's geopolitical long game and what Russia actually wants:

Cold War: The world is dominated by two huge power-blocs. One headed by the US and one headed by Russia.

Russia's power-bloc collapses.

Russia tries to get back on its feet and figures that it can rise to its old power over time. No worries.

Turns out, Russia was wrong:
Russia is forced to watch on with horror as the West consumes former allies of Russia and turns them into allies of the West. Countries that once were geopolitical vasalls of Russia, and are supposed to become such vasalls again one day, are just leaving Russia behind.

Russia was hoping for some time to catch a break, some time where the geopolitical power-struggle gets paused, and then when Russia were ready, the game would continue.

Except that there is no such pause.

The game continues and while Russia fights for geopolitical survival and tries to catch up, NATO and the EU effortlessly absorb new members that by rightful tradition are supposed to be members of whatever power-bloc Russia is part of. They are not supposed to go their own way.

Russia thinks that the game is on a break, but the West continues to play. That's what Russia sees as western aggression.






Russia realizes that this cannot go on like that. Russia cannot project power when it has no allies. A two-pronged approach begins:

1. Russia is step-by-step creating an international economic alliance based on the template of the EU. This way, Russia is going back to building a power-bloc it would dominate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

2. Russia is publicly calling for a multi-polar world and deriding the concept that power-blocs would decide what a country is doing. Russia wants a world where every country fends for itself... except for Russia of course, which still would have its power-bloc.
That's why Russia supports the secession of South-Ossetsia from Georgia.
That's why Russia supports Brexit.
That's why Russia supports Calexit.
That's why Russia supports the secession of Catalonia from Spain.
That's why Russia supports the secession of Crimea from Ukraine.
That's why Russia doesn't like it when the Baltic States move closer to Europe.
Russia wants to spread the idea that it's natural and good for a country to be alone and fending for itself.
Why? Because Russia is no match for an alliance like the EU, but Russia can easily bully the individual countries that make up the EU.





And Trump?
Trump is a useful idiot. Trump wants to turn a world of alliances into a world where countries are going alone. Which is exactly what Russia wants.

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Russia's geopolitical long game and what Russia actually wants: (Original Post) DetlefK Sep 2017 OP
Yup, what DetlefK said. I agree! shraby Sep 2017 #1
Encourage paranoia of our neighbors, the 'other', other countries ck4829 Sep 2017 #2
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