Trump may push Pakistan but it wont budge

Stratfor, January 2018

The new year has brought renewed troubles for the already faltering relationship between the United States and Pakistan. On New Year's Day, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a tweet accusing Pakistan of "lies & deceit" despite receiving $33 billion in U.S. aid for its cooperation in the war in Afghanistan. The next day, the White House announced that it would continue to withhold the $255 million worth of aid that had been earmarked for Pakistan in 2016, citing insufficient action against anti-NATO militants. And on Jan. 4, the White House said it would suspend $900 million in security assistance promised in 2017 and place Pakistan on a list of countries violating religious freedom.

Because Pakistan hosts the Taliban leadership and the Haqqani network that spearhead the insurgency, its cooperation is crucial to U.S. efforts in Afghanistan. The government in Islamabad supports the insurgency in part to fufill its longtime strategy to project power into Afghanistan in pursuit of two overarching objectives: First, to install a government in Kabul friendly to its interests that would accept the colonial-era Durand Line as their shared border. Second, to shape a government in Kabul that would be hostile to India, thereby preventing an encirclement by its nuclear archrival.

Because Pakistan considers these objectives vital to its continued existence as a state, the coercive U.S. measures will do little to sway it from its course. But another reason for Pakistan's steadfastness in the face of U.S. pressure is the support it receives from the two strongest military powers in Asia: China and Russia. China is a close ally of Pakistan, having invested in the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiative aimed at integrating Eurasia with China. The day after Trump's tweet, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs came to its ally's defense, lauding Pakistan's contributions to counterterrorism operations.
Russia and Pakistan, on the other hand, have historically been enemies. In the 1980s, Pakistan joined the United States and Saudi Arabia in arming the mujahedeen to bloody the Soviets during their decadelong military occupation of Afghanistan. But a few decades later, the roles are changing. In the growing rift between United States and Pakistan, Russia sees an opportunity to gain advantage. By investing in Pakistan's North-South pipeline, conducting joint military exercises and hosting four conferences aimed at jump-starting negotiations in Afghanistan, Moscow is cozying up to Islamabad to forge a relationship with the Taliban. One of Moscow's goals is to support the militant organization to counter transnational extremist groups, such as the Islamic State, which threaten to spill into the Central Asian states bordering northern Afghanistan. But Moscow's outreach is also aimed at gaining a point of contact in Kabul's post-conflict government, as the Taliban are widely expected to someday join a power-sharing agreement designed to end the war.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/trump-may-push-pakistan-wont-budge


Really worthwhile read. Clearly explains the foreign policy issues we face in Pakistan and why Trump isn’t going to get what he wants. Just another example of stupid foreign policy that will undercut our influence.