The winner of a U.S.-China trade war could be ... Mexico

If and when the United States and China finally tire of their trade war and reach a settlement to roll back tariffs, there still will be areas of friction making for an uneasy relationship, among them geopolitics, dominance in high-tech and human rights — if the U.S. cares about such things anymore.

But regardless of how the trade dispute gets solved, it’s being fought in a changing environment. No matter how much power they think they have to shape their countries’ economic relationship, there are a lot of important things well beyond the control of either President Trump or Chinese President Xi Jinping.

You could probably name a dozen. Here are two. Regardless of what Trump’s tariff cheerleaders say, don’t expect a more level playing field to result in a lot of new American jobs; nor for China to suddenly start buying loads of American soybeans again. Jobs already are heading elsewhere — to places like Mexico. And in addition to stiff competition, soybean sales are likely to remain depressed, in part because of a deadly disease ravaging China’s hog farms.

For a number of years already, increasing costs in China have resulted in manufacturing moving elsewhere. One of the main drivers is wages, which have increased as China has run out of cheap labor from the countryside. Sometimes the workers just aren’t there. After decades of ruthlessly enforcing a one-child policy, China is trying to encourage couples to have more children — but they’re not. So manufacturers have to increase wages to compete for a shrinking number of workers.

Read more: https://www.minnpost.com/foreign-concept/2019/05/the-winner-of-a-u-s-china-trade-war-could-be-mexico/

Note: The disease affecting China's hog farms could result in unavailability of the blood thinner Heparin.