11 Dec: Breaking point! Russians lose the upper hand - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 656: Dec 11

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Avdiivka direction.

Here, the biggest changes happened in the northern part of the region. After Russian forces downsized their offensive operation and downgraded their main goal from encircling the whole settlement to encircling just half of the settlement, Russian forces along the railways necessarily started losing the initiative.

Some Russian sources recently claimed that Russian forces gained a foothold in central part of Stepove and continued offensive operations, however, according to the freshest combat footage, the furthest Russians managed to reach was the third house on the outskirts. Ukrainian fighters from the 47th Mechanized Brigade published a video showing how 3 Russian soldiers sneaked into the remnants of the demolished house. The whole group was promptly eliminated in a strike.

Most Russian assault units are even less successful than that. Today’s combat footage shows how Ukrainians identified a small group of Russians that were moving along the tree lines toward the settlement and accurately hit it with the first shell. Such precision likely means that Ukrainians know the regular Russian routes and have their guns pointed at them and ready to shoot at any time. What is also interesting is that the Russian assault units became much smaller. In this video, the assault is conducted by just 6 Russian soldiers, while a few weeks ago, the regular unit size was from 15 to 20 soldiers. And this is not surprising because Russian soldiers here do not receive as many reinforcements as previously while the old units are virtually completely demolished.

A Russian soldier recently released a video describing the situation. He said that 7 days ago, his unit had 75 soldiers and that right now, only 14 of them are still alive. He said that they are located around 500 meters from Ukrainian positions, and due to the constant artillery, mortar, and drone fire, they cannot even collect their dead soldiers, so the forest around them is full of corpses. His words were quickly substantiated because less than 1 minute after he got out of the shelter, Ukrainians immediately opened mortar fire at their positions.

Another Russian soldier from the nearby positions showed the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike. This time, the Russians got lucky as the drone narrowly missed the shelter and did not explode. The Ukrainian side also posted more videos of the attempts to dislodge Russian forces from their positions along the tree line.

Many Russian assault units are caught by surprise in the middle of their journey to the positions, and they are literally chased down by the drones. Some soldiers try to hide, but with no shelters around, it is only a matter of time until the unit is eliminated. A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operator showed the aftermath of one such hunt. The video shows two different assault units consisting of around 10 people that were caught and destroyed at different parts of the same tree line. One Russian soldier who barely survived by pretending to be dead showed the results of one such raid.

So, Russian forces in this region are facing a stark shortage of troops. With most of the manpower having been spent during the unsuccessful frontal assaults on Stepove and no adequate reinforcements in sight, Ukrainians started hitting deeper and deeper. Some Russian analysts claimed that the rapid shift of focus of Russian forces away from this region is unjustified because Ukrainians will highly likely attempt to improve their tactical positions, negating the gains that Russians achieved at high cost.

Moreover, Ukrainians recently identified and destroyed another major Russian base, this time in Makiivka, which is a twin city of Donetsk. Russian sources reported that Ukrainians used 4 Himars rockets to hit one of the main fuel depots in the region. The destruction of the fuel depot means that the Russian infantry will receive even less support from the tanks and armored vehicles, making it easier for Ukrainians to rebuff Russian attacks. The combination of all these factors, namely the destruction of a major fuel depot, the destruction of a major ammunition depot, and significant problems with manpower in the northern part of the region, make Russians very vulnerable and give Ukrainians a perfect opportunity to launch their counterattacks.