23 Dec: Operation Annihilation: Ukrainian Commanders Reveal Their Winter Campaign - Reporting from Ukraine

Okay, this report keeps getting published later each night...

Day 668: Dec 23

Today, I will analyze the Ukrainian strategic situation.

Despite advancing by around 15 kilometers in the Melitopol and Bedyank directions, Ukrainian forces did not manage to translate tactical gains into operationally significant results. Ukrainian commanders realized that they underestimated the Russian defenses and, in order to avoid unnecessary losses, changed their tactics from heavy mechanized assaults to small infantry assaults already in the first weeks. Ukrainians reached the tactical heights between Orikhiv and Tokmak to, at least, secure their tactical gains before the bad weather arrived and froze the front line.

The freshest updates suggest that the snow, rain, and fog do not allow Ukrainians or Russians to actively move around in the region. The soil in southern Ukraine is the softest, making the fields extremely difficult to pass, impeding the ground operations significantly. The weather conditions and the ground quality in Avdiivka are not much better, leaving very small windows between rains and forcing the commanders to wait until the ground dries up at least a little bit before launching mechanized attacks or counterattacks. In the most northern part of the front line, the snow frequently melts due to the constant fluctuations in temperature, causing the same problems. The Ukrainian High Command stated that in light of the expectedly bad winter weather conditions, they made a decision to transition to defensive operations. As the intensity of clashes in the south decreased, Russian forces launched a series of offensive operations in the east to seize the initiative. So, in short, Ukrainians transitioned to defensive operations because the bad weather would lead to unjustified losses, and Russians transitioned to offensive operations because they can.

The setting, therefore, is the following: the southern line is largely inactive, in the east, Ukrainians are defending against the Russian offensive, and in the Kherson region, Ukrainians are drawing in Russian forces to undermine the Russian offensive capabilities. During the recent Direct Line with Putin forum, Putin claimed that Russians have around 600 thousand soldiers in Ukraine. A bit earlier, president Zelensky claimed that Ukrainians also have around 600 thousand soldiers, so no party has manpower superiority. The Ukrainian High Command recently stated that the most important objective for Ukrainian forces in the near future is to inflict as much damage to the Russian military as possible while conserving manpower and resources for offensive efforts.

Achieving manpower superiority during the defensive operation is natural because the defending party incurs much lower losses compared to the attackers. The current weather conditions make Russian attacks even costlier. Some Ukrainian analysts claimed that the ratio of losses in Avdiivka is 7 to 1 in Ukrainian favor. Such a setting led to 15 thousands Russian losses over the last 2 months, and, right now, Russians are conducting 5 such offensives, some of which engage at least twice am many troops as in Avdiivka.

In order to increase the ratio even more, the Ukrainian command finally ordered to build comprehensive lines of defense, basically like the Russians did in the south. So, Ukrainian forces use this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions. Moreover, while Russians are committing the best forces to conduct these costly offensives, such as Wagner forces and elite motorized units with the most modern tanks and equipment, Ukrainians are removing their elite forces for replenishment and preparation for future offensives. For example, the most elite assault brigades launched a recruitment and training campaign to create the most physically capable and prepared assault units. The most elite drone detachments have launched a recruitment campaign and will train thousands assault drone operators. And this is extremely important because the Ukrainian Chief-in-Command Zaluzhny concluded in his assessment of the counteroffensive that the next breakthrough on the front line can only be achieved with technology and innovation, in particular, drones. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that their key focus in 2024 will be the mass production of drones.