04 Feb: Nice. A Huge Group of Russians Gets Taken Into A Pocket. - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 711: Feb 04

Today, there is a lot of news from the Avdiivka direction.

When it comes to the Avdiivka direction, the most intense clashes are taking place in the central part of the region. The situation here was extremely confusing because, based on the geolocated footage, Russian soldiers were continuously spotted on the first streets of Avdiivka, while simultaneously Ukrainians were present on the main defense belts in front of these streets.

The Ukrainian fortifications here are quite formidable and helped to repel countless Russian attacks in this region. The first line of fortifications is located between the railway and the highway and mostly consists of trenches. The second line is north of the railway and heavily relies on the bunker inside the embankment. The last line is located around the Tsarska Okhota restaurant. So, the presence of Russian forces on the streets of the town forced many analysts to conclude that Russians suddenly breached all these lines of defense and initiated urban fighting. Nonetheless, there was no footage of battle or convoys. Instead, Russian sources continued publishing drone strikes on Ukrainian fortifications, implying that defenses were not breached. A fighter from Avdiivka reported that the situation was stable, and the spotted groups of six to eight Russian soldiers were opportunistic sabotage groups, all of which were gradually hunted down.

Suddenly, the situation deteriorated significantly, and Ukrainian fighters in the Tsarska Okhota restaurant suffered an unexpected attack from behind. As it turned out, Russians got lucky and discovered an old pipe that was once supposed to service the chemical plant or water filtration station, and found out that it reached the first streets of Avdiivka. Russian sources later released a video about it, claiming that the pipe is two kilometers long and that they were using it for deploying troops. That is why, at first, during the experimental stage, Russians only deployed small groups that Ukrainian soldiers dismissed as lucky sabotage groups, and that is why later after the concept was proved, Russian forces reportedly sent a large assault group of 150 soldiers through the pipe into the Ukrainian rear. In the aftermath of this big attack, Ukrainians were taken by surprise and forced out of their defense lines.

After the withdrawal, Ukrainians realized that the Russian garrison was relatively small and cut off from the mainland and started preparing for a counterattack. Understanding the weakness of the Russian position, Ukrainians were not afraid of using a lot of heavy equipment. Combat footage shows that Ukrainians assaulted Russians with Bradley armored fighting vehicles. Based on the geolocation, Ukrainians were operating near the bridge, implying that the main fortification of the Tsarska Okhota restaurant was retaken. The fate of the other two lines of defense remained ambiguous, and both parties claimed control over them. However, retaking the Tsarska Okhota restaurant was enough because, from here, Ukrainians managed to meet and completely demolish a Russian column that was supposed to reinforce Russians in the residential area. Geolocated footage from Ukrainian drones shows the scattered remnants of the Russian column.

Simultaneously, Ukrainians assaulted the residential area. Combat footage shows that Ukrainians were dropping heavy anti-tank mines from drones, as well as attacking Russians with tanks, reducing the occupied houses to ruins with high-explosive shells. Complete eradication of the enemy was not achieved, so the region is constantly shelled.

Overall, this was one of the most clever and well-conducted Russian operations. However, the fact that Ukrainians took back the Tsarska Okhota restaurant undermined Russian plans by cutting off Russian reinforcements. Russian analysts express deep concerns about the prospects of the bridgehead as the wedge in which Russian assault groups and detachments are operating is too narrow. Russians can keep basic supplies of bullets, food, and fresh soldiers through the pipe but nothing more, as crawling for 2 kilometers is very difficult. The best solution for Ukrainians is to find the old schemes of pipes in the region, find where they lead, drop several JDAM bombs on the facilities that Russians use to enter the pipe, and only then initiate the clearing operation.