05 Feb: Russians crossed the Death Valley & entered Avdivka - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 712: Feb 05

Today, the biggest news comes from the Avdiivka direction.

Here, the most dynamic clashes are taking place in the central part of the region. First of all, Ukrainian forces managed to localize the Russian breakthrough by retaking key positions that allowed them to establish fire control over the roads. This way, Russian heavy mechanized assault units cannot enter the region and reinforce those inside the bridgehead, and Russians have to rely exclusively on small supplies via the underground pipe. Russian sources also released several videos showing how they are delivering additional small supplies with aerial drones. Due to continuous Ukrainian shelling and tank raids, Russians did not manage to improve their situation, while Ukrainians still have not found and destroyed the entry point to the pipe, causing the frontline here to get stuck.

Such a setting forces Russians to return to and double down on their previous idea of partial encirclement of the town. The partial encirclement of the town implies penetrating the settlement right between its two most fortified areas: the chemical plant and the area with high-rise buildings. Moreover, in order to achieve encirclement in this scenario, it is sufficient to advance just from one side because this is where the main Ukrainian supply roads are located. By advancing in the center and cutting it off, Ukrainians in the southern part of the town will basically have no connection to the mainland, apart from risky dirt roads along the tree lines in the field.

The first major attempt happened a few weeks ago when Russians tried to use mechanized columns. Ukrainian fighters from the one-hundred-tenth mechanized brigade released a video showing this attack. According to the fighters, Russians tried to split them and open multiple vectors of attack. However, they were spotted well in advance by Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operators and gradually demolished by the time they reached the front line.

Unfortunately, Russians made reasonable adjustments, abandoned the idea of using large armored groups, and switched to pure infantry assaults. Prior to making each push, Russians would send small units of two to four people one after another into the small residential zone to accumulate forces. Even though Russian soldiers complained that Ukrainians were targeting even such small groups, overall, the Russian tactic worked, and they expanded the area of control over the so-called Ivushka dacha area on the northern outskirts of Avdiivka. As a result, the Ukrainian Army withdrew from the tree lines north of the quarry, inevitably giving Russians more freedom of movement in the area. This reduced Ukrainian fire control over the region and allowed Russians to start reinforcing their infantry with armored fighting vehicles once again. Geolocated footage shows multiple Russian pieces of equipment amid demolished houses.

Nonetheless, the additional reinforcements did not seem to help, and despite having more forces in the Ivushka dacha area, they had less progress. The main reason for the reduced pace of the operation lies in the topography of the region. If we look at the topographic map, we can see that there is a small valley between Avdiivka and the Ivushka dacha area. Crossing it required getting exposed, which inevitably led to high losses and retreats. Geolocated combat footage released by Ukrainian special operators reveals that many Russian forces were eliminated by drones.

However, suddenly, the fights did break out on the streets of Avdiivka, implying that Russians penetrated the Ukrainian defense. Russian sources reported that Russians advanced by up to five hundred meters, reached the railways, and cut off Ukrainian supplies. Other sources started amplifying the news, with some claiming that the whole residential area had fallen. Nonetheless, based on geolocation, Russians were spotted only on Sapronova Street, implying a significantly narrower zone of operations. A Ukrainian fighter from the twenty-fourth battalion reported that there was no need to be concerned because good news would soon be released. The freshest updates received several hours ago from the soldiers on the ground indicate that the Russian bridgehead was completely eliminated. Another soldier released a video showing how they cleared the street and took captive all Russian soldiers that survived.