11 Feb: Russians Panic! Ukrainian Reinforcements Arrived To Storm The Northern Flank. - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 718: Feb 11

Today, there is a lot of news from the Avdiivka direction.

According to the latest updates, Ukrainians are preparing a comprehensive operation to unblock Ukrainian forces and push Russians back to their initial positions. Ukrainian Avdiivka Military Administration Head stated that Russian forces are cutting off the Ukrainian main ground line of communication leading into Avdiivka in order to encircle the settlement.

Most prominent Russian sources claim that Russian forces hold positions roughly 700 meters from Ukraine's main supply road. However, the area of fighting has increased significantly, with some sources claiming that Russians reached the industrial area.

The central part of Avdiivka can be split into two parts: north of the railways and south of the railways. When it comes to the area north of the railways, it seems like Russian forces still have not established total control over the fields and tree lines north of the quarry. As you remember, after Russians advanced in the Ivushka area, Ukrainians withdrew from these positions to avoid potential encirclement. In principle, it would be beneficial for Russian forces to assume the empty ground and attack Ukrainians from the other side of the quarry. However, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians anticipated such a development and spent several weeks mining the area prior to the withdrawal. These mines are stopping Russians from opening the second vector of attack.

Nonetheless, this doesn't mean that the situation for Ukrainians is easy. Russian forces inside the bridgehead identified three main goals. The first goal is to reach the southern part of the quarry. Given that this implies advancing block by block through the area with small houses, this is supposed to be the least difficult option. Even though some sources claim that Russians have already achieved it, in reality, the fights continue on the same streets. That is why some analysts concluded that Russians may be just securing the flanks to advance toward their other targets.

The second goal of the Russian forces is to cross the rails and breach the Ukrainian defense in the industrial zone and truck station. So far, all Russian attempts to reach the industrial zone have been unsuccessful, and it remains under total Ukrainian control. Some Russian and Ukrainian sources circulated information that Russians managed to reach the truck station; however, several hours ago, most prominent Russian sources denied these claims, possibly because these positions were lost in the aftermath of a Ukrainian counterattack.

The third goal of the Russian forces is to cross the rails and establish control over the small residential area to use it as a jump ramp for attacking the chemical plant. In this case, Russian sources claim that they managed to establish a small foothold in the area, while Ukrainian sources deny these claims.

The area south of the railways consists of industrial zones that are harder to attack than small houses. On top of that, the railways that are splitting this area into two halves serve as an obstacle as well. However, despite failing to cut the main supply road physically, Russian forces established fire control over it. A Ukrainian fighter reported that Russian kamikaze drones are constantly in the sky, waiting for Ukrainian vehicles. That is why Ukrainians switched to using an alternative road that connects Avdiivka to Severne.

Russian analysts became concerned about the lack of panic and sudden retreats from the southern part of Avdiivka. While some Russian sources started claiming that Ukrainians are preparing for a mass withdrawal, Russian soldiers who are actually fighting in Avdiivka reported that they did not observe any activity that would indicate that and that they also have no hopes of taking the southern part without a fight. Russian analysts concluded that it is very likely that Ukrainians are preparing for a counterattack.

The most ideal development would be a successful counterattack from the north. This way, Ukrainians will completely slice off the Russian bridgehead or at least complicate logistics to the point where Russians will not be able to sustain such high pressure on the street.