And from there, it can go just about anywhere. A Syria style proxy war is quite possible.

have among them folks who would probably like to blow us up. I can't say that about Ukraine.

I'm really not certain to what extent the US or NATO or perhaps the EU alone would get involved in armed combat in Ukraine. All the US has sent so far are MREs, but having encouraged the current Ukrainian government, we should be prepared to do more.

However, I don't see the Obama administration having much commitment to Europe. They're either bogged down in the Middle East or pivoting toward China. To them, it seems, Europe is so 1940. Unfortunately, the ramifications of the European 20th Century wars and the rise and fall of the Soviet Union haven't quite played themselves out, and it seems that the changes in Western Europe dating from the end of WWII have slowly moved across the continent from west to east, and truly have reached the Russian frontier and will be hashed out in eastern Ukraine.

Surely, the State Department and the President's National Security Council have better apparatchiks than PNAC favorite Victoria Nuland. I guess that we'll find out shortly.

But that fact that we have had people over there poking sticks into this mess and pursuing fatuous ideological goals is depressing as hell. Hydrocarbon infrastructure is very hard to protect. If these people are looking for weapons, they aren't kidding around. Back around when Yanukovich was kicked out, there were people hitting armories in the west of Ukraine too I remember. They may not need all that much outside help.

But threats have been made against it, too.

I'm not sure I want to watch this. And I don't have the impression that our government is even all on the same page in this, if you see what I mean? And that is a recipe for trouble.

I don't care for Zbig much, but he does have the virtue of being clear about present facts on the ground.

What I see is a country descending into civil war, with various weakly committed outside meddlers cheering them on, all of them likely to regret it soon.

It will be the last to go.

I understand what you mean by "same page." Obama really needs to pay real attention here and crack heads at state, but I'm not holding my breath.

I had a restless night, and I'm not at the top of my game today, but I think that Zakaria has some thoughts on the position of our best friend in the Middle East with respect to the Russia/Ukraine situation. Considering your recent posts in a related forum, I think that you might find it interesting.

Zbig, generally, is much more hawkish than I, and I think that he didn't quite think things through with the business in Afghanistan. He just really wanted to get the Russians. It makes quite a contrast to his relatively dovish ideas about how Ukraine can carry on while maintaining independence, even while Finland now is feeling uncomfortable. I don't know if age has affected his views, or whether he's really worried about this thing getting really out of hand.

Hawkish is my main beef with Zbig, and the "just wanting to get the Russians". I expect a bit more depth of thought in these things.

I do expect the EU will weigh in on this, no doubt about it, but I'm not sure they can all get on the same page either. And other nations may have something to say.

I think everybody ought to be uncomfortable. Russia will not come out of such a conflict unscathed either, or Putin. That patriotic glow is ephemeral. All it takes is one party who still wants to make trouble, and trouble you have. And the more threats and violence you have had, the farther you get from order and civility.

grumpy. However, I think that with Ukraine, it's not just the age, but the memories. And it is other memories that Putin is playing on with the Russian people. If the current situation deteriorates and real shooting starts, Russians will start coming home in body bags. Those will bring back memories, too, for Putin and the Russian people. I don't like Putin, but he's not dumb. He knows the role that those body bags had in the demise of the USSR, which he so wants to recreate. That's one thing that might hold him back if the Ukrainians mount a stiff resistance.

The BBC isn't doing a particularly good job of covering the inside of what is going on among the European heads of state. I've written occasionally that Merkel is really the key here, and not much seems to be leaking into the major English-language press about what she is really thinking. I expect that some folks wish that the NSA was still bugging her cell phone.

Tom Clash put up a piece in GD which goes into all this in some detail, and quite well too IMHO. I recommend it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4816492