Iraq’s Humpty-Dumpty Factor: Even if ISIL is Defeated, Can it ever be put Together Again?
http://www.juancole.com/2014/09/factor-defeated-together.htmlIraq’s Humpty-Dumpty Factor: Even if ISIL is Defeated, Can it ever be put Together Again?
By contributors | Sep. 28, 2014
Nawzat Shamdeen | Berlin | via Niqash.org
As local forces appear to be preparing to take on Sunni Muslim extremists in charge of their hometowns, discussion has already started about what happens next. In the northern province of Ninawa, the governor is putting his faith in a new military force while others argue about how independent Ninawa can ever be from Baghdad.
There are very few Iraqis who still believe that Iraq should be ruled by a central government. There are also very few Iraqis who are still optimistic about the amendments Iraq’s new government, led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, is trying to introduce to correct the mistakes made by the former regime.
Those who still feel optimistic about the survival of Iraq in its current incarnation tend to be expatriates living outside of Iraq. Their opinions are reflected by journalists and intellectuals but they are often accused of idealism, naiveté or of being deluded.
Should the Sunni Muslim extremists from the Islamic State, or IS, group who are currently controlling the area be pushed out, the majority of people living in the northern province of Ninawa – whether they be Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Christians or Yazidi – would prefer to see a new kind of administration. The very least they want is administrative decentralisation which would allow for reconstruction, better employment opportunities for locals and most importantly, better security.
= new reply since forum marked as read
The Bush-Obama administrations don't want an independent, united, stable iraq. And yes, I'm putting htem together because on this there is the same goal.
Instead they want the following.
1) A shi'ite state dependent on US arms sales and security structures to maintain independence from Iran. Like an inland version of Bahrain or Kuwait.
2) a throwaway Sunni state for the Saudis to dominate, if they want. we don't care, nothing in that region we want; no population, no minerals, little oil.
3) An oil-pumping independent Kurdish state that we will arm and protect, but without the wholesale domination as in the case of the shia fraction-state.
This has always been the goal, it's why the "partition plan" gibberish has been in the media since before we invaded, and is still going. it's just that the iraqis themselves have been incredibly resistant to the idea.
So maybe we'll settle for a Kurdistan, and a dysfunctional weapons-buying Arab state torn by religio-political factionalism. 
it's how we do Yemen, after all.
