Dueling ISIL Ops Costs Estimates: $3.B A Year Or $15B A Month?

http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/likely-isil-ops-costs-up-to-3-b-a-year-unless-csba/

Dueling ISIL Ops Costs Estimates: $3.B A Year Or $15B A Month?
(UPDATED: Former Defense OMB Head Begs To Differ On Estimates)
By Colin Clark and Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. on September 28, 2014 at 9:43 PM

WASHINGTON: The Pentagon has been pegging the operations against the terror group known as ISIL at $7 million to $10 million a day. If you extrapolate that across a year it comes very close to the $3.8 billion estimate that Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has come up with in a new report estimating how much the American taxpayer will pay to “degrade and destroy ISIL.” Breaking D readers will remember the Friday remarks of Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, to the effect that the Pentagon faces budget “problems” because of the ISIL operations and is rebuilding its budget for next year to pay for these operations. Estimating the Costs of Operations against ISIL Here are the three scenarios Harrison worked for his estimates: “Assuming a moderate level of air operations and 2,000 deployed ground forces, the costs would likely run between $200 and $320 million per month. If air operations are conducted at a higher pace and 5,000 ground forces are deployed, the costs would be between $350 and $570 million per month. If operations expand significantly to include the deployment of 25,000 U.S. troops on the ground, as some have recommended, costs would likely reach $1.1 to $1.8 billion per month. On an annualized basis, the lower-intensity air operations could cost $2.4 to $3.8 billion per year, the higher-intensity air operations could cost $4.2 to $6.8 billion per year, and deployment of a larger ground contingent could drive annual costs as high as $13 to $22 billion.”

UPDATE: Gordon Adams, who ran the national security section of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget from 1993-1997, offered a much more substantial estimate bolstered by this explanation.

“The CSBA analysis, which is very competent, sets a bottom line for what the ISIS operation may cost. But, as they acknowledge, it does not include a number of costs that should be included: humanitarian relief, supporting and equipping the Iraqis and Syrian opposition, the costs of replacement munitions, and the costs we will almost certainly incur to support other coalition participants, especially the Jordanians and the Central Europeans,” he said in an email. “I think their air operation numbers, while accurately estimated, are low, because the air campaign is widespread and will grow in intensity. In the end, I think the monthly number will be above their estimate, perhaps as much as $15 billion a month.”

These estimates, we must note, do not compare apples to apples. Gordon is including stuff the State Department, CIA and others would pay for, while Todd is focused much more strictly on the DoD budget. UPDATE ENDS