There probably will be no meaningful peace talks until both sides are tired of killing, starving and freezing each other, and I don't think that moment will come any time soon. I'm not even sure that winter will knock sense into any heads over there.

Poland has talked about moving troops into forward positions. Perhaps they're doing this to stem a likely flood of refugees. It just seems like there's nothing much else to say.

Sorry to have to concur with you, but I do. Then again, I've been of the opinion that they were all more or less out of their minds for about a year now, and especially since they started up the "Anti-terrorist operation". This last step, cutting then off, will just seal the deal permanently.

Edit: I do think this is posturing and preparing for Spring, I don't expect there will be a lot of movement during the Winter. Probably more than enough to do keeping fed and warm.

would be problems re-supplying Crimea. Apparently, the sea crossing is extremely difficult in winter. Perhaps there is coastal ice formations and rough seas. However, that would probably have meant moving on Mariupol by now, and the action presently is in Donetsk.

But as I like to say, reason can only take you so far.

I expect Kiev will work the Crimea situatuion out if they want gas this Winter. The fact that they arrived at a gas deal tells me they won't fuck with it until the weather warms up. it was only when the gas deal was made and the elections completed that everybody started posturing belligerently again, if you see what I mean? It's going to be a long Winter, and the governments on both sides are dependent on lots of aid, but in the meantime they need to shore up public support or they may not make it through the Winter.

It looks a little like some areas of the Middle East.

Matching "Maidans" in Kiev and Donetsk would be a interesting development, but perhaps both sides realize that they must do what is necessary to keep the voters warm and fed. I suspect that Kiev's western supporters would be more forthcoming with food and fuel than with military aid, anyway.

1.) Ukraine crisis: Petro Poroshenko says country is 'ready for total war' with Russia

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko claimed his country was "prepared for total war" as fighting continued around the pro-Russian rebel stronghold of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-17/ukraine-ready-for-total-war-with--russia-poroshenko-says/5895570

2.) Meanwhile over in the areas in revolt you have people pursuing their own independent policies:

Heavy shelling rocks rebel-held Donetsk in east Ukraine

"Compared with previous days, the number and intensity (of shelling) fell, but there are signs of rebels and Russian forces preparing for an offensive," Andriy Lysenko said in a briefing in Kiev.

In separatist Luhansk region, three members of Ukraine's special police force were killed as a result of a rebel attempt to break into Ukrainian-controlled territory, the Interior Ministry said in an online statement. The press service for the military operation said another soldier had been killed elsewhere in the region.

Andrei Purgin, deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed 'Donetsk People's Republic', told Reuters rebels had reached an agreement with Ukrainian forces to stop shelling around Donetsk airport following a meeting that included representatives of Russia and security watchdog OSCE.

Ukrainian military spokesman Lysenko said he did not have information on the agreement referred to by Purgin.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/16/us-ukraine-crisis-shelling-idUSKCN0J00UT20141116

3.) Meanwhile Putin points out the obvious:

Putin Scolds Ukraine for Cutting Links With East Regions

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to his isolation at a global summit over his role in fomenting fighting in Ukraine by chastising authorities in Kiev.

Putin said his counterpart in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, made a “big mistake” by moving to sever banking services and pull out state companies from two breakaway regions. He spoke after Group of 20 leaders berated Russia over the conflict at a summit in Brisbane, Australia.

“Why are the authorities in Kiev now cutting off these regions with their own hands?” Putin told reporters. “I do not understand this. Or rather, I understand that they want to save money, but this is not the right occasion and the right time to do this.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-16/putin-rebukes-ukraine-for-cutting-links-with-east-regions

a settlement that would give considerable autonomy to the eastern part of the country, which I think would be the best solution. But Putin has been adding fuel to the eastern fire, apparently believing that he can break up Ukraine. Neither one of them looks good to me.

The thing that bothers me is that there is a long, bad history in Europe of changing borders by force, and it seems that after WWII, Europeans were so exhausted by war that they decided that maintaining set borders was better than fighting. Now, there is a rupture in the borders again, and I wouldn't blame Europeans for being very anxious about what is going on. Here I sit in the US, and I'm anxious about it. It feels like Arch Duke Ferdinand is going to rise from the grave and some idiot ethnic Serb is going to shoot him again. That's hyperbole, of course, but it seems like Europe may again be a world problem point, and the world doesn't need another problem point right now.

I just hope that the infection remains localized, but it seems that Putin is responding aggressively to sanctions, and it doesn't look like the West is ready to back down. Merkel and Junker met with Putin for six hours total in Australia, but there's been no word as to whether any progress toward settlement was made. Meanwhile, it seems like we are creeping toward another Iraq war and pivoting toward Asia rather than attending to old business in Europe. I hope that I'm wrong here.

I have to some extent stopped paying attention to all the name-calling back and forth, it is so transparently meaningless.

The point I would make to all of them is that if you want to gain and hold power and influence, you have to govern well, and take responsibility. If you aren't willing to pay, you're not serious. Putin has been sending aid from the beginning, and we froth at the mouth about it, but we should be going him one better, if we want to win the East, and send more. And who can complain about us doing that? Nobody. As it is we are driving them into Putin's arms, and he is using the opportunty to bind them to him. That Yats is a fucking idiot.

We aren't doing all that we could. We're being extremely stingy with aid and thus can't really push Poroshenko in a constructive direction. And the Europeans aren't exactly stepping up to the plate, either, but we shouldn't use that as an excuse. We seem to be able to find money to train and equip useless "moderate" anti-Assad Sunnis, but we can't seem to find the money and time to really help a nation that really wants to be our friend. I think I understand why, and it doesn't make me happy.

I tend to sympathize with Poroshenko, along the lines you say. I think he is well on his way to being shafted. Lots of long-range mouth-fighting and damn little real help.