Foreign Affairs

bemildred

(90,061 posts) Mon Jan 26, 2015, 10:33 AM Jan 2015

The Saudi palace coup

King Abdullah’s writ lasted all of 12 hours. Within that period the Sudairis, a rich and politically powerful clan within the House of Saud, which had been weakened by the late king, burst back into prominence. Its a palace coup in all but name.

Salman moved swiftly to undo the work of his half-brother. He decided not to change his crown prince Muqrin, who was picked by King Abdullah, but he may choose to deal with him later. However, he swiftly appointed another leading figure from the Sudairi clan. Mohammed Bin Nayef, the interior minister, is to be his deputy crown prince. It is no secret that Abdullah wanted his son Meteb for that position, but now he is out.

More significantly, Salman, himself a Sudairi, attempted to secure the second generation by giving his 35-year-old son Mohammed the powerful fiefdom of the defence ministry. The second post Mohammed got was arguably more important still. He is now general secretary of the royal court. All of these changes were announced before Abdullah was even buried.

The general secretaryship was the position held by the Cardinal Richelieu of Abdullah’s royal court, Khalid al-Tuwaijri. It was a lucrative business handed down from father to son and started by Abdul Aziz al-Tuwaijri. The Tuwaijris became the king’s gatekeepers. No royal audience could be held without their permission, involvement or knowledge. Tuwaijri was the key player in foreign intrigues, subverting the Egyptian revolution, sending in troops to crush the uprising in Bahrain, financing ISIL in Syria in the early stages of the civil war through his previous ally, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/saudi-palace-coup-37093212

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The Saudi palace coup (Original Post) bemildred Jan 2015 OP

The veils are being pulled back. People are paying attention this time. leveymg Jan 2015 #1

I thought the comment about al Sisi regretting the King's passing was interesting. bemildred Jan 2015 #2

A weakened and divided Egypt works both for and against KSA, and vis-a-versa leveymg Jan 2015 #3

Thanks, hadn't seen that, it's fascinating. bemildred Jan 2015 #4

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

1. The veils are being pulled back. People are paying attention this time.

Reply to bemildred (Original post)

Mon Jan 26, 2015, 11:45 AM

Jan 2015

There's been a shift in perceptions in the West about this bunch, even if the policies don't change much under the Sudairi Seven, or Three, or whatever the court has metastacized into, now.

These are all very old men, with ambitious sons, who don't care a whiff about western perceptions. Enormous hubris, just waiting to happen. Easily drawn into fatal excess.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

2. I thought the comment about al Sisi regretting the King's passing was interesting.

Reply to leveymg (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 26, 2015, 12:50 PM

Jan 2015

I would not mind if al Sisi got thrown out one of these days.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

3. A weakened and divided Egypt works both for and against KSA, and vis-a-versa

Reply to bemildred (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 26, 2015, 04:40 PM

Jan 2015

After reading these articles by David Hearst, I get a sense that the essential nature of Saudi foreign policy is ambivalence. The overall scheme of how that power is projected is a deeply enervating for the Saudis. They seem weakened by everything they do, because they are basically dillitant amateurs, who have hired people who have no loyalty to do things for them. Yet, the less they do also seems to hurt them in the long run, given the complexity and lethality of the Great Game they've injected themselves into so deeply in quest of the resurrection of the lost Caliphate and the Mahdi. They seem to be everywhere -- terribly overstretched -- but nowhere really controlling events, not even within the Kingdom.

They seem most vulnerable to external meddling, particularly in their succession squabbles.

This insight by Hearst in his Nov. 2013 article is particularly intriguing, given recent events: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/21/saudi-power-struggles-egypt

Egypt is not the only front going wrong for Bandar. If the kingdom made little attempt to conceal its frustration when President Barack Obama opted not to bomb Bashar al-Assad's forces in Syria after the chemical attack, the current optimism surrounding six-nation talks with Iran in Geneva, and the prospect of a western rapprochment with Tehran, augurs even worse for the kingdom. Here is why.

Saudi Arabia's support for the military coup in Egypt has affected relations with another important regional player – Turkey, a living example of political Islam succeeding in a secular state. Turkey's ruling AKP government was a key backer of the ousted Morsi and Tunisia, where a Muslim Brotherhood coalition government still struggles on. The Saudi decision to pull the plug on Morsi has propelled Turkey into the arms of Riyadh's mortal foe: Iran. The Turkish president Abdullah Gul has invited his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani to pay an official visit to Turkey. The moderate Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif has described Iranian-Turkish relations as "deep-rooted and brotherly".

Bandar's war against political Islam has also made itself felt on Saudi's troubled border with Yemen. The need to combat the advance of Islamist group al-Islah in Yemen has led the Saudis to support Houthi militias – with whom the kingdom once went to war. A prominent Houthi, Saleh Habreh, was flown via London to meet the Saudi intelligence chief.

Tensions at home and abroad return to one central political fact in the kingdom: rival groups within the Saudi royal family vying for the old king's attention. As things stand, the crown prince is Prince Salman. He has been nominated by the current king, but this is the last time that a king will be able to nominate a successor. If the crown passes to Salman, his crown prince will be nominated by a body called the allegiance council.

This body favours a rival to the Bandar group. He is Prince Ahmed, the youngest member of the Sudairi brothers, and who appears to be opposed to the direction that the Bandar group is taking Saudi foreign policy. To avert this, the Bandar group is attempting to persuade the king to replace Salman as crown prince with their candidate, Prince Muqrin, thus bypassing the troublesome allegiance council.

Intrigues within the royal court may explain why Saudi foreign policy, which has traditionally been discreet and cautious and conducted largely behind bead curtains, is so overt. It could all be a product of an age-old obsession of absolute monarchies – the battle for succession.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

4. Thanks, hadn't seen that, it's fascinating.

Reply to leveymg (Reply #3)

Mon Jan 26, 2015, 05:11 PM

Jan 2015

So it sounds like Bandar is still losing.

Well, any good politician wants to do nothing if he can. It's easy work and you don't piss anybody off.

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