Foreign Affairs

jakeXT

(10,575 posts) Thu Feb 5, 2015, 04:59 AM Feb 2015

Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support From Syria’s Assad

WASHINGTON — Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices.

“If oil can serve to bring peace in Syria, I don’t see how Saudi Arabia would back away from trying to reach a deal,” a Saudi diplomat said. An array of diplomatic, intelligence and political officials from the United States and the Middle East spoke on the condition of anonymity to adhere to protocols of diplomacy.

Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft. Saudi officials have said publicly that the price of oil reflects only global supply and demand, and they have insisted that Saudi Arabia will not let geopolitics drive its economic agenda. But they believe that there could be ancillary diplomatic benefits to the country’s current strategy of allowing oil prices to stay low — including a chance to negotiate an exit for Mr. Assad.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/02/04/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-is-said-to-use-oil-to-lure-russia-away-from-syrias-assad.html?_r=1&referrer=

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Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support From Syria’s Assad (Original Post) jakeXT Feb 2015 OP

Didn't Putin tell Bandar to fuck off a while back? bemildred Feb 2015 #1

That was back in 2013, with 'threats' of violence during the Sochi Olympics jakeXT Feb 2015 #2

Yep, that's it. Thanks for looking it up. bemildred Feb 2015 #3

I don't really know what prompted Assad to decline the Qatari pipeline jakeXT Feb 2015 #4

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

1. Didn't Putin tell Bandar to fuck off a while back?

Reply to jakeXT (Original post)

Thu Feb 5, 2015, 08:45 AM

Feb 2015

It would be funny (in a bad/good sort of way) if our fracking boom was destroyed in a pissing contest between Putin and the House of Saud.

jakeXT

(10,575 posts)

2. That was back in 2013, with 'threats' of violence during the Sochi Olympics

Reply to bemildred (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 5, 2015, 09:17 AM

Feb 2015

Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria
Saudi Arabia has secretly offered Russia a sweeping deal to control the global oil market and safeguard Russia’s gas contracts, if the Kremlin backs away from the Assad regime in Syria.

The revelations come amid high tension in the Middle East, with US, British, and French warship poised for missile strikes in Syria. Iran has threatened to retaliate.

The strategic jitters pushed Brent crude prices to a five-month high of $112 a barrel. “We are only one incident away from a serious oil spike. The market is a lot tighter than people think,” said Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review.

Leaked transcripts of a closed-door meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan shed an extraordinary light on the hard-nosed Realpolitik of the two sides.

Prince Bandar, head of Saudi intelligence, allegedly confronted the Kremlin with a mix of inducements and threats in a bid to break the deadlock over Syria. “Let us examine how to put together a unified Russian-Saudi strategy on the subject of oil. The aim is to agree on the price of oil and production quantities that keep the price stable in global oil markets,” he said at the four-hour meeting with Mr Putin. They met at Mr Putin’s dacha outside Moscow three weeks ago.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10266957/Saudis-offer-Russia-secret-oil-deal-if-it-drops-Syria.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

3. Yep, that's it. Thanks for looking it up.

Reply to jakeXT (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 5, 2015, 09:31 AM

Feb 2015

All over Assad. Who would have ever thought Syria would be the fulcrum around which so many events would turn? An unimportant backwater not long ago. And then we have the Neocon's regime change obsessions thrown into the mix. And gradually the size of the regions into which the writ of no government can reach grows. I defy anyone to tell me who is going to put this mess back together again. My feeling is that ISIS is fundamentally weak, dependent on outside inputs of men and money, and not that well organized; but the same can be said of all their enemies on the ground, except the Kurds. Whatamess.

jakeXT

(10,575 posts)

4. I don't really know what prompted Assad to decline the Qatari pipeline

Reply to bemildred (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 5, 2015, 10:20 AM

Feb 2015

Last edited Thu Feb 5, 2015, 11:21 AM - Edit history (1)

But according to a former French foreign minister the Brits were thinking about sending gunmen to Syria two years before the war started. So that would be around 2009

Qatar seeks gas pipeline to Turkey
August 26, 2009
The pipeline might supply strategic Nabucco project to serve Europe, as it looks to market world's largest deposit.

Qatar has proposed a gas pipeline from the Gulf to Turkey in a sign the emirate is considering a further expansion of exports from the world's biggest gasfield after it finishes an ambitious programme to more than double its capacity to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"We are eager to have a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey," Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the ruler of Qatar, said last week, following talks with the Turkish president Abdullah Gul and the prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the western Turkish resort town of Bodrum. "We discussed this matter in the framework of co-operation in the field of energy. In this regard, a working group will be set up that will come up with concrete results in the shortest possible time," he said, according to Turkey's Anatolia news agency.

Other reports in the Turkish press said the two states were exploring the possibility of Qatar supplying gas to the strategic Nabucco pipeline project, which would transport Central Asian and Middle Eastern gas to Europe, bypassing Russia. A Qatar-to-Turkey pipeline might hook up with Nabucco at its proposed starting point in eastern Turkey. Last month, Mr Erdogan and the prime ministers of four European countries signed a transit agreement for Nabucco, clearing the way for a final investment decision next year on the EU-backed project to reduce European dependence on Russian gas.

But Nabucco's future is far from assured, as its proponents have yet to reach agreements with gas suppliers. The project was originally conceived as a conduit for Central Asian gas, but recently its backers have been courting Middle Eastern producers as well. After his meeting with Sheikh Hamad last week, Mr Erdogan said Turkey wanted a "long-term and stable relationship" with Qatar in energy matters.

"For this aim, I think a gas pipeline between Turkey and Qatar would solve the issue once and for all," Mr Erdogan added, according to reports in several newspapers. The reports said two different routes for such a pipeline were possible. One would lead from Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq to Turkey. The other would go through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey. It was not clear whether the second option would be connected to the Pan-Arab pipeline, carrying Egyptian gas through Jordan to Syria. That pipeline, which is due to be extended to Turkey, has also been proposed as a source of gas for Nabucco.

http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/qatar-seeks-gas-pipeline-to-turkey#page1

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