Why Israel Should Be Worried About Russia’s Role in Syria

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For Israel, an assertive Russia that looks to revive its relations with Arab countries mainly through military exports and nuclear energy cooperation should be troubling. Russia is already going forward with supplying Iran with the S-300 aerial defense system, which will improve Iran’s capabilities significantly. According to Eiland, it is unlikely that Russia will supply the S-300 system to Syria, but if it does, it will put the majority of Israeli air traffic under the threat of surface-to-air missiles.

Future Russian arms deals are already being discussed with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which might influence the balance of power in the Middle East. Even if the probability of a conflict between Israel and another Arab country is currently low, one of Israel’s core national security interests is to maintain its military advantage. This dynamic, along with Arab countries’ own fear of Iran’s growing influence, could set off another regional arms race. In the long term, Russia might also increase its naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, a move that according to Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, could disrupt Israel’s naval activity in the area.

The reality is that Russia’s increasing role in Syria does not give Israel many options; if anything, it actively shuts them down. Israel is not in a position to challenge Russian maneuvers. The only thing that Israel can do right now is to maintain its current course: talking to the Russians and trying to avoid misunderstandings. One of the few options Israel has is to turn to its historic partner, the United States, and try to figure out America’s next steps in Syria. It is in Israel’s interest that the Unites States will not concede its leading role in the Middle East.

On November 9, when President Obama meets Netanyahu in the White House, it would be wise for the Israeli prime minister to bring up Israel’s concerns about Russia’s increasing role, mainly to get a better sense of what the American response to Moscow’s recent push will be. Israel needs to know that its redlines will be respected by Russia, and the administration can help with that by stating the same redlines to the Russians. Doubts will surface in Israel whether this administration can help enforce Israel’s redlines in Syria, especially in light of apparent frictions between Jerusalem and Washington, but as both countries try to bury the hatchet, this can be a good place to start.

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