Former Mossad Chief Says Israel is Not Under Immediate Threat

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"I can tell you, putting it cautiously, that the events surrounding us are not over yet and that the State of Israel is facing a far from simple challenge, as we cannot tell what is in store for us. Each of the neighboring countries is torn by its own internal rifts. There is no ethnic or religious homogeneity in any of these countries and each has its own unique balance of power. This situation holds opportunities for Israel, but it also poses various risks with which we will have to cope," Dagan told his audience.

"It doesn't matter how the vote is conducted. What matters is who is counting the votes"

According to Dagan, there is a one-to-one correspondence between the regional reality and its economic repercussions on Israel. "Let's start with what is erroneously called 'the Arab Spring.' Whoever coined the term must have been inspired by the [revolutionary] events that took place in Europe in 1848 [known as the Spring of Nations], at a time when liberal ideas were spreading throughout the world. However, the truth is that there is no liberal message in this case. In the end, it all boils down to a power struggle over positions of dominance."

According to Dagan, the common feature characteristic of the events we have been witnessing in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and even Syria is the fact that all these countries have Islamic societies. These countries are populated by various tribes typified by nepotism, preference of loyalty over experience and competence and deliberate prevention of social mobility. "One of the leaders in the region once told me that 'it doesn't matter how the vote is conducted. What matters is who is counting the votes.' You hear of new [governmental] institutions and courts being established there, and comparisons are drawn between us, here in Israel, and what's going on there. However, demonstrations are but external manifestations and may signify completely different things [here and there], and parliamentary elections do not necessarily testify to the existence of democracy," Dagan noted.

A central role in the revolutions that took place in Arab countries has been reserved to the exemplary organization of the opposition to the regime. "In countries where control was seized by force, the ruling elite have been forced to step aside. In all these countries there is a single organized grass-roots opposition with a power base in each and every village – these are the Islamic movements. They have gained a foothold in the population and can directly communicate with people on their way to the mosque. [At the same time,] the state's involvement in the social process has diminished."

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/07/meir-dagan-in-the-short-range-th.html