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Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 02:15 PM Aug 2014

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: Israel’s Iron Dome: a misplaced debate

July 29, 2014

Subrata Ghoshroy

Ghoshroy is a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Program in Science...

Back in 2012, Israel’s Iron Dome rocket defense system was hailed as a real, working battlefield weapon that could shoot down unguided rockets before they struck Israel. Iron Dome was lauded as a game changer in the Israel-Palestine conflict; at the time, Israel claimed that it shot down 441 Hamas rockets in flight, before they could do serious damage. Admittedly, normal life in Israel was disrupted, as its citizens had to scamper to bomb shelters when the siren sounded, but that was held to be acceptable. Israeli casualties were negligible in comparison to more than 1,000 Palestinian deaths.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. This time around, the rockets continue to be launched, there continues to be incredible claims about this supposedly infallible anti-rocket system, and one side continues to have far more casualties than another. And few media outlets examine the deep-seated reasons why Hamas continues to launch rockets into Israel from Gaza, and why even a highly effective Iron Dome would not stop the rockets.

Iron Dome PR. For the current conflict, Israel has reportedly improved Iron Dome, claiming that the system intercepts 90 percent of the rockets that it attempts to hit. It is true that there have been only two Israeli civilian casualties so far (one from mortar fire), which buttresses claims of the success of Iron Dome. Yet, while citizens of distant Tel Aviv and other cities far from Hamas’ Gaza-based rocket launch sites are now able to lead normal lives, people continue to run toward bomb shelters in areas closer to the action.

And well they should.

As readers of the Bulletin's “Iron Dome: the public relations weapon” are aware, there have been many inflated claims about the system’s efficacy. As much as anything, what’s kept the Israeli death toll low is a well-run and efficient civil defense system, along with the fact that most Gaza-launched rockets fall harmlessly in open fields in the sparsely populated parts of southern Israel. What’s more, the incoming rockets are, technologically speaking, just a few steps above homemade fireworks in terms of their guidance systems, despite their payload’s potential to cause grave harm. The rockets follow a simple trajectory that is easily determined by the position and angle of the launcher and propellant. So, once fired, they are quickly tracked by Israeli radar.

http://thebulletin.org/israel%E2%80%99s-iron-dome-misplaced-debate7349

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kayecy

(1,417 posts)
1. No, no......That can't be true......
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 02:21 PM
Aug 2014

No, no......That can't be true......Israel has accused Hamas of a war crime....Namely attempting to shoot down incoming airliners at Ben Gurion airport!

Israel knows all about Hamas rockets so they must have accurate guidance systems and an aircraft tracking capability!

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Hamas's Shift to Tunnel Warfare Catches Israel by Surprise
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 05:33 PM
Aug 2014

---

“The question is not military, the question is what does Israel want,” said Yaakov Amidror, a retired general who served as Israel’s national security adviser until November. To bring complete quiet to Gaza would require a takeover and occupation of the territory for six months to a year, he said. Israel, which unilaterally withdrew its forces and settlements from the Gaza Strip in 2005, has little appetite to return.

What is left, military officials say, is to create deterrence. In recent years, Israeli strategists have spoken of the “Dahiya doctrine,” referring to Israel’s flattening of the Dahiya district in Beirut, a Shiite neighborhood that housed the command-and-control headquarters of Hezbollah, during its 34-day war against the Lebanese organization in the summer of 2006. The idea was to inflict such damage that the other side would ask whether confrontation was worthwhile.
Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story

While many Israelis deemed that war a failure, it has restored quiet to Israel’s northern border for the last eight years.

But experts say the Dahiya doctrine does not apply to Gaza. The Hamas command is not concentrated in one area, and the leader of the movement, Khaled Meshal, lives in exile, “in a five-star hotel in Qatar,” as Mr. Amidror put it, where the impact of the destruction is less immediate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/02/world/middleeast/an-old-playbook-leaves-israel-unready-for-hamass-tunnel-war-.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
3. Oren Kessler: For Hamas, one kidnapped soldier is a winning stroke
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 05:35 PM
Aug 2014

It is difficult to overstate the importance of Hamas’s capture Friday of an Israeli officer near the Gaza Strip. All of the group’s tactical achievements over three weeks of war – killing more than 60 troops, launching rockets at Haifa and Jerusalem, disrupting Israel’s international airport – pale in comparison. It was in anticipation of such an event that Hamas rejected five previous ceasefires, holding out for a signal achievement that it could parade before its people as justification for the destruction Israel has loosed upon the territory.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/08/01/oren-kessler-for-hamas-one-kidnapped-soldier-is-a-winning-stroke/

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
7. With the soldier captured, seems to me Bibi may be in way
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 05:47 PM
Aug 2014

over his head...all he knows how to do is terror bomb..think, Netanyahu, think.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. In the long run, I think Bibi is screwed. This has not gone well. It's obvious.
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 06:08 PM
Aug 2014

In the short run, hard to say. As we just found out shit happens. I expect Hamas to continue to be intransigent. The fact that they pulled this off, before or after the start of the cease fire as you choose, does not suggest they are anywhere near thinking of giving up. On the other hand, they may be willing to negotiate seriously now, while most likely Israel will want to even the score or get some leverage of their own back, before getting serious. I am sure Bibi does not want to look like he has backed off. And it is probably still the case that they could not agree on much.

You have two sides both playing the crazy guy strategy, though not exactly the same way, which pretty much always leads to a game of atrocity chicken such as we see now. And that goes on until the carnage and damage on both sides mounts high enough for them to reconsider their attitude and get serious about negotiations.

Edit: what is different here is:

1.) Hamas has given a good account of itself in military terms, they can no longer be ignored. Hence the calls for "de-militarization".

2.) Israel is aleady pushing it with the atrocity chicken, and will attract more and more flak as time goes on.

3.) Hamas' leadership seems secure and still in command, and likely to remain so unless Israel makes a much larger commitment of resources, they will not be rooted out easily or cheaply, and they will not give up that leverage willingly.

4.) The cat is out of the bag, any fix to the present dilemma which does not include much improved conditions in Gaza is just buying a bit of time, they will keep digging and making rockets until someone gives them something more productive to do, like jobs and lives to lead.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
14. I wish Israel would have negotiated for the tunnel information while under a truce.
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 06:45 PM
Aug 2014

If Hamas has the soldier as Israel claims, Israel may be brought in further from the border engaging
in a type of combat these young soldiers may not be prepared to do..I don't know.

I also hope we don't hear anything that sounds like a green light from the US to Israel to
continue the terror because of the soldier.

*they will keep digging and making rockets until someone gives them something more productive to do, like jobs and lives to lead.

The sooner someone in power gets that, the better.

Shaktimaan

(5,397 posts)
16. Wasn't that tried already?
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 11:15 PM
Aug 2014
they will keep digging and making rockets until someone gives them something more productive to do, like jobs and lives to lead.


In 2005. They were left with jobs and means to grow fruit for trade and the means to do so. They still placed their priority on rockets.

Aside from that, I think we can agree that there's plenty of work to be done building infrastructure in Gaza. Yet when Israel began letting in cement and building supplies they went towards tunnel construction.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
5. Not afraid of Israeli assault, Gaza people say war must go on
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 05:46 PM
Aug 2014

After bombardment gutted his home in central Gaza, Nidal al-Khaldi says he has nothing left to lose and will support the "resistance" against Israel even if it means more vicious fighting.

"This war will continue!" he declares, standing by the ruins of his house in Al-Bureij district during a temporary lull in fighting Friday between Israel and Gaza's militants.

The relative calm does not last long, as shelling resumes just hours into an agreed 72-hour humanitarian ceasefire, and as Israel says militants had probably captured one of its soldiers in "breach" of the truce.

In Al-Bureij, the streets are carpeted with dust and rubble, riddled with shards of metal and twists of electric cable, the desolate heritage of 25 days of devastating and deadly fighting.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/gazaunderattack/despite-the-carnage-gaza-people-say-war-must-go-on/article1-1247270.aspx

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
8. ....says he has nothing left to lose."
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 05:52 PM
Aug 2014

As if you need a rocket scientist to tell you how he got there.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
13. The Israeli laser-guided bomb strikes Gaza with the speed and menace of a dagger
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 06:42 PM
Aug 2014

---

But this is Gaza – and everyone knows the sight and sound of an Israeli air strike. Inured to danger, people in the street nearby hardly pause.

As the weapon zeroes in on its target, drivers go on driving, pedestrians continue walking and a young man calmly halts his donkey cart. At the moment when the explosion takes place, three men nonchalantly cross the road.

This remarkable sequence of images captures the unique atmosphere of Gaza in the teeth of Israel's offensive.

I have covered other wars, but my 12 days witnessing Gaza's agony taught me that Israel's trial of strength with Hamas amounts to a clash of arms like no other.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11006911/The-Israeli-laser-guided-bomb-strikes-Gaza-with-the-speed-and-menace-of-a-dagger.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
15. With nothing left to save, Gazans say war must go on
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 06:52 PM
Aug 2014

AL-BUREIJ, Palestinian Territories: After bombardment gutted his home in central Gaza, Nidal Al-Khaldi says he has nothing left to lose and will support the “resistance” against Israel even if it means more vicious fighting.

“This war will continue!” he declares, standing by the ruins of his house in Al-Bureij district during a temporary lull in fighting Friday between Israel and Gaza’s fighters.

The relative calm does not last long, as shelling resumes just hours into an agreed 72-hour humanitarian cease-fire.

In Al-Bureij, the streets are carpeted with dust and rubble, riddled with shards of metal and twists of electric cable, the desolate heritage of 25 days of devastating and deadly fighting.

http://www.arabnews.com/news/middle-east/610451

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. Turkey wants UN observers in Gaza to monitor truce
Fri Aug 1, 2014, 05:47 PM
Aug 2014

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has called on the United Nations to send observers to the Gaza Strip to monitor ceasefire violations, citing the mutual exchange of blame between Israel and Hamas.

"Both sides will of course blame each other when the ceasefire is broken. There should be UN observers in Gaza and they should make efforts to ensure a lasting ceasefire," Davutoglu told a press conference Friday with Iraqi Turkmen Front leader Arshad al-Salihi in the Turkish capital, Ankara.

Earlier in the day, Israel declared the collapse of a 72-hour humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, accusing Hamas operatives of killing two soldiers and capturing another.

"It would not be right to put the blame on one side after an allegation levelled by the other," Davutoglu said.

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/rss/367485--turkey-wants-un-observers-in-gaza-to-monitor-truce

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