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Updating my prediction from 5-4 to 6-3 Striking down at least Sect 3 of DOMA and Prop 8 (Original Post) stevenleser Mar 2013 OP
who is the 6th vote? Roberts? nt chillfactor Mar 2013 #1
Yes. Between his cousin and some of his questions, I am saying he votes the right way. stevenleser Mar 2013 #3
I hope so. Fearless Mar 2013 #2
DOMA, Sec 3 - pinto Mar 2013 #4
Not a lawyer, but the "lack of standing" argument seems pertinent in re: Prop 8. pinto Mar 2013 #5
I thought so too, but from what I am hearing, the court seems to be conceding it to those folks. nt stevenleser Mar 2013 #6
Agreed, and such a ruling would likely come out as a win to us to ShadowLiberal Mar 2013 #7
I like your thinking. William769 Mar 2013 #8
I've been holding out for 6-3 also. beyurslf Mar 2013 #9
What about Section 2? MNBrewer Mar 2013 #10
When I did a large segment on this on my show I said there was a moderate chance they could stevenleser Mar 2013 #11
I'm beginning to believe BillStein Mar 2013 #12
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
3. Yes. Between his cousin and some of his questions, I am saying he votes the right way.
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 01:32 PM
Mar 2013

On Edit: Fixed neice with cousin and:

Unfortunately, I think six votes is the ceiling. I don't see any possibility for Scalia, Thomas or Alito. I hope I am wrong there.

pinto

(106,886 posts)
4. DOMA, Sec 3 -
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:05 PM
Mar 2013

Section 3. Definition of marriage

In determining the meaning of any Act of Congress, or of any ruling, regulation, or interpretation of the various administrative bureaus and agencies of the United States, the word 'marriage' means only a legal union between one man and one woman as husband and wife, and the word 'spouse' refers only to a person of the opposite sex who is a husband or a wife.

pinto

(106,886 posts)
5. Not a lawyer, but the "lack of standing" argument seems pertinent in re: Prop 8.
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:11 PM
Mar 2013

Marriage equality poses no harm to the proponents. As I understand it, injury has to be established to have standing before a court.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
6. I thought so too, but from what I am hearing, the court seems to be conceding it to those folks. nt
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:23 PM
Mar 2013

ShadowLiberal

(2,237 posts)
7. Agreed, and such a ruling would likely come out as a win to us to
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 11:02 PM
Mar 2013

A decision that they lack standing would likely leave the previous court's ruling strike down Prop 8 standing.

While it would be awesome for them to make a ruling that effects more then California, I've always been pretty skeptical they'd do that Prop 8.

DOMA has seemed like the better place to go big, or to lay the ground work to go big in the future by striking down part of the law.

beyurslf

(6,755 posts)
9. I've been holding out for 6-3 also.
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 12:18 PM
Mar 2013

I started saying it last year after healthcare's decision. Roberts is thinking about his legacy. I guess I am holding out hope that in 30 years, Roberts will be the next Stevens. Being on a court for life, knowing nothing can change that, and knowing that what you say and do will define you long after you die, these things can make a person reconsider previously held beliefs. History can be a harsh judge if you turn out to be on the wrong side.

MNBrewer

(8,462 posts)
10. What about Section 2?
Thu Mar 28, 2013, 08:17 AM
Mar 2013

Or is that not technically before the court. I mean, I know they COULD do whatever they want, but if they're hoping to craft a narrow-ish ruling my guess is they would leave section 2 alone. It will have to be repealed or challenged in a separate suit.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
11. When I did a large segment on this on my show I said there was a moderate chance they could
Thu Mar 28, 2013, 09:01 AM
Mar 2013

throw DOMA in its entirety in the s--tbin of history. I'm going to talk about this again on my upcoming show that airs Sunday and Monday and to do that I am going to go through the justices comments with a fine tooth comb. Shorter answer is, I don't know yet, but I am going to really listen and try to figure out what the chances of this are. I'm hopeful.

BillStein

(758 posts)
12. I'm beginning to believe
Thu Mar 28, 2013, 11:34 AM
Mar 2013

I think it's possible that they'll go 6-3 against DOMA. The standing issue is clear, since Ms. Windsor lost a lot of money (a clear injury under the law). I'm hopeful Roberts will see the light, and hopeful Thomas will retire soon.* That said, I'm not sure how that will play out in the long term. Will my husband and be able to visit MA this summer and file joint tax returns here in PA? I think that will be the subject of future litigation.

I think Proposition 8 will be dismissed for lack of standing. The court doesn't appear to have the stomach for such a sweeping decision, so they'll let it stay in CA. That said, it will still be a momentous decision.

*OK, I admit it... I originally wished for a medical emergency.

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