Health

TXPaganBanker

(210 posts) Wed Mar 18, 2020, 02:37 PM Mar 2020

Closed case numbers on COVID-19

In the United States, we keep being told that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.5-3.5%, and that number is inflated. When you look at the numbers of “closed cases” worldwide, people that have either recovered or died, you get real numbers. As of 3/18/2020, 93,182 closed cases; 84,402 recovered, 8,780 that died. 120,070 cases don’t have an outcome yet. That gives a 9.4% mortality rate, or 3 times what we’re being told by the news.

Am I the only one that is looking at it like this?

3 replies

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Closed case numbers on COVID-19 (Original Post) TXPaganBanker Mar 2020 OP

No. We don't know and might never know, because those numbers reflect The Velveteen Ocelot Mar 2020 #1

I think we are running about 6% gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #2

Except you are looking at Turbineguy Mar 2020 #3

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,748 posts)

1. No. We don't know and might never know, because those numbers reflect

Reply to TXPaganBanker (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 02:42 PM

Mar 2020

only the reported and confirmed cases. The milder cases are not tested and possibly not even reported. Those people will recover on their own without any record that they were sick. We have no idea how many cases there are that have not been reported at all.

gibraltar72

(7,506 posts)

2. I think we are running about 6%

Reply to TXPaganBanker (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 02:42 PM

Mar 2020

Had our first death here in Michigan.

Turbineguy

(37,346 posts)

3. Except you are looking at

Reply to TXPaganBanker (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 03:05 PM

Mar 2020

numbers that are not related in time. People who die were infected 3 weeks earlier. People who get it, have no symptoms or mild symptoms and recover at home are not part of these numbers.

In Washington state, for every positive test, there are 10 negative. That means that for every person who has it, 10 people (or their Doctors) think they have it.

It's a jumble of numbers. The media reports the large number (the number infected) and ignore the number recovered or active.

I think you get a much better idea by looking at "new infections" and then watch when these numbers start getting smaller as happened in China.

Think of this analogy: 1000 people apply to go to a college in September. Later next year in June, 100 people graduate. How are these numbers related? What can we obtain from these numbers? Does this mean that only 10 percent graduate?

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