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sarisataka

(18,663 posts)
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 01:11 PM Apr 2016

Guns, self-defense and red-handed lies

Josh Sugarmann, Executive Director , Violence Policy Center, blogged on HuffPo about the report his group released detailing the rare use of firearms in self-defense. For proof he prominently displays a graphic, making the rounds of gun control proponents, showing that there are many more criminal homicides than self-defense homicides.
implication being the only valid DGU is one where the attacker is killed.
Much like a Republican sponsored "Abortion Rights" bill, Mr. Sugarmann hopes you do not read beyond the title.

The same report Firearm Justifiable Homicides and Non-Fatal Self-Defense Gun Use http://www.vpc.org/studies/justifiable16.pdf actually says firearms were used defensively 163,600 times over a three year period, per the NCVS. That gives an average of 54,433 DGUs per year. By presenting the graphic which shows 211 justifiable homicides, he has waved away 99.6% of DGUs. (Or to put it another way, armed civilians ward off an attacker without fatality 99.6% of the time)

But, you say, 54,000 or so is a fraction of the total of violent crimes in the U.S. You are correct, although to those 54,000 it is a very important fraction, but given a criminal homicide total of 7,838 guns were used to save people nearly seven times more often than to kill. Taking a cold look at the numbers, it seems intuitive that absent guns the number of those 7,838 fatalities who would survive would be more than offset by an increased number of violent crime victims. Who is willing to stand up and state how many rapes and assaults they find tolerable per life saved?

Now perhaps some deem 54,000+ victims a worthwhile price for a lower number of gun related deaths. Unfortunately that 54,000 number is also questionable. The CDC sponsored report PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF FIREARM-RELATED VIOLENCE http://www.nap.edu/read/18319/chapter/1, ordered by President Obama after Sandy Hook, looked at studies measuring DGUs. They noted the Kleck study that puts the number of DGUs at over 2 million per year and questioned that high total due to small sample size. They also considered the number of DGUs derived from the NCVS and stated that low number to be "dubious" due to the wording of the questions on the NCVS. The CDC believes the NCVS is seriously undercounting DGUs and one of the recommendations, as yet not acted upon, is further study be done on the subject.

While I have no doubt Mr. Sugarmann and the VPC mean well they completely sacrifice all of their integrity to try and twist the data. Much like a stage magician making an item disappear, they flash the report in one hand, then use a graphic like a handkerchief in the other. They hope you are so focused on the waving handkerchief you don't stop to ask what is in the other hand. Much like gullible children, those who want to believe accept it as true magic, never noticing it is all illusion.

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Guns, self-defense and red-handed lies (Original Post) sarisataka Apr 2016 OP
fear the DGU jimmy the one Apr 2016 #1
To prominently title a chart sarisataka Apr 2016 #4
They had no "integrity" to lose. oneshooter Apr 2016 #2
I need to give a great review... discntnt_irny_srcsm Apr 2016 #3
I have a pair sarisataka Apr 2016 #5
obviously discntnt_irny_srcsm Apr 2016 #6
It only takes once...a risk I'm not willing to take. ileus Apr 2016 #7

jimmy the one

(2,708 posts)
1. fear the DGU
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 02:25 PM
Apr 2016

sarisatak: {gun control group VPC} .. That gives an average of 54,433 DGUs per year. By presenting the graphic which shows 211 justifiable homicides, he has waved away 99.6% of DGUs. (Or to put it another way, armed civilians ward off an attacker without fatality 99.6% of the time) ......

{CDC center for disease control} also considered the number of DGUs derived from the NCVS and stated that low number to be "dubious" due to the wording of the questions on the NCVS

To do a justifiable defensive gun use, you would normally be a law abiding gun owner (LAGO); what do readers think would inhibit a L.A. gun owner from revealing he performed a DGU, even if the question was worded 'improperly'? You would think they'd wanna toot their own horn, no?
The NCVS is the national crime victimization survey, which measures both reported & UNreported crime.
Let's see if I have interpreted past pro gun arguments on these here boards correctly. Gun owners UNDER-report guns they own so as not to be subject to the horrors of gun registration (several pro guns members will testify I'm sure).
So, let's suppose some NCVS interviewer is asking LAGO's whether they performed a DGU last year, and they think back & remember that they did not REPORT the crime they are talking about {over 80% of violent crimes are evidently not reported}, and whoa nelly - you think I'm gonna report I pulled my gun out & scared off bad guy & didn't report the incident to police??? you think I'm crazy? I'd be arrested on the spot (they might think).
.. Yes, 54,000 DGUs in one year is likely a low ball figure, but the valid figure is perhaps one or 2 hundred thousand, about a third simply verbal dgu's as 'go away or I'll get my gun', not that much more. Hardly 2.5 million as Gary Kleck contended in his faulty DGU study.
As for underreporting DGU's I suspect the lion's share of the blame goes on gun owners who performed a dgu, wanting to suppress the dgu to NCVS, similar to gun registration fears.

PS: I did not see VPC deception you refer to where 99.6% of dgus were 'waved away'. They were clearly marked as 54,433 as you noted (or rather 163,000/3yrs}. Which graphic are you referring to? the title.

2014: UCR, Uniform Crime Reports of reported crime, fbi stats: There were an estimated 1,165,383 violent crimes (murder and non-negligent homicides, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults) reported by law enforcement.
{2014 avg} NCVS, including UNreported crime: Avg year per VPC stats: ~6,000,000, more than 5 times higher than UCR.


2014, UCR: There were an estimated 8,277,829 property crimes (burglaries, larceny-thefts, and motor vehicle thefts) reported by law enforcement.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2015/september/latest-crime-stats-released/latest-crime-stats-released
NCVS, 2014 avg: ~17,000,000, or 17 million, approx twice the reported property crimes.

Each year, BJS interviews a nationally representative sample of approximately 169,000 persons age 12 or older living in U.S. households..The NCVS collects information on crimes experienced by individuals and households during the 6 months preceding the interview, whether or not those crimes were reported to law enforcement. A unique feature of the NCVS is that it collects both reported and unreported crimes and reasons the crime was or was not reported.

.. the two programs measure an overlapping but nonidentical set of crimes. The NCVS includes crimes both reported and not reported to law enforcement. The NCVS excludes, but the UCR includes, homicide, arson, commercial crimes, and crimes against children under age 12. The UCR captures crimes reported to law enforcement but collects only arrest data for simple assaults and sexual assaults other than forcible rape.
..Third, because of methodology, the NCVS and UCR definitions of some crime differ. For example, the UCR defines burglary as the unlawful entry or attempted entry of a structure to commit a felony or theft. The NCVS, not wanting to ask victims to ascertain offender motives, defines burglary as the entry or attempted entry of a residence by a person who had no right to be there.
..Fourth, for property crimes (burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft), the two programs calculate crime rates using different bases. The UCR rates for these crimes are per capita (number of crimes per 100,000 persons), whereas the NCVS rates for these crimes are per household (number of crimes per 1,000 households). Because the number of households may not grow at the same rate each year as the total population, trend data for rates of property crimes measured by the two programs may not be comparable.
.. In addition, some differences in the data from the two programs may result from sampling variation in the NCVS and from estimating for nonresponse in the UCR. The BJS derives the NCVS estimates from interviewing a sample and are, therefore, subject to a margin of error. .. The UCR Program bases its data on the actual counts of offenses reported by law enforcement agencies.
https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/appendices/appendix_04.html

sarisataka

(18,663 posts)
4. To prominently title a chart
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 08:23 PM
Apr 2016

One thing then show a graph of a cherry picked minute subset is false and misleading. Why not show DGUs vs total violent crime? Is it because claiming an event is "rare" doesn't sound as compelling if they admit it happens at least 50k times per year?

As for the CDC's opinion of the validity of Kleck or the NCVS, I make no judgement. I am simply reiterating their skeptical view of both. I cannot see why anyone favoring gun control would take issue with the CDC view. After all, isn't that the exact organization that people want studying gun violence? Shouldn't they be allowed to do so unfettered; or should they only be allowed to do studies which support predetermined outcomes?

discntnt_irny_srcsm

(18,479 posts)
3. I need to give a great review...
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 08:06 PM
Apr 2016

...to my brand of bullshit repellent. It's kept even the smell of that particular sack of vpc crap from offending my delicate senses.

Good work wading into the muck and exposing that load of crap.

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