Gun Control & RKBA
Related: About this forumTX CHL holders 16x less likely to be convicted of crime
The rate of conviction for CHL holders has hit an all-time low- 23 per 100,000, with ~520,000 active CHL holders. The rate among the general public over 21 years old? 362 per 100,000
Conviction Data: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/convrates.htm
Number of Licensees: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/demographics.htm
Population Data: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/CHS/popdat/detailX.shtm
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)That's what you need to be comparing data to.
You guys will try anything to advance your gun agenda.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)But your point is generally correct. Apples/pears comparison.
X_Digger
(18,585 posts)http://www.lbb.state.tx.us/PubSafety_CrimJustice/6_Links/RecidOffend.pdf
That's *still* eight times as high a rate.
eta, and yes, that's a derived rate, working backwards from the recitivism rate and the number of first time offenders.
OneTenthofOnePercent
(6,268 posts)Statistics & Population Behavior
Condidtionals...
For this thought experiment, there are only three sectors comprising TOTAL population:
Licensed CCW holders, Disqualified Persons, CCW Qualified. None of these may intersect.
The "Disqualified Persons" sector consists of all persons who have lost the right to carry a weapon (criminal conviction).
The "CCW Qualified" sector consists of all individuals qualified for CCW that do not have a CCW.
There are only two subsets of people in this group: Law abiding and unconvicted/future criminal.
The "Licensed CCW holders" sector consists of all individuals qualified for CCW that do have a CCW permit.
There are only two subsets of people in this group: Law abiding and unconvicted/future criminal.
The subset "Law Abiding" is unlikely to be convicted of a crime in the future.
The subset "Criminal" in criminally unconvicted but likely to be convicted of a crime in the future.
It can be safely assumed that criminals do not have a willingness to follow laws & regulations.
---------------------------------
Implied Effects of Conditoinals...
Clearly, CHL holders are a self-selected sect of the CCW Qualified population. They choose to go through the process of becoming CCW licensed. In becoming part of that self-selected group, one behavior that is demonstrated is willingness to follow the laws and regulations - jump through hoops, if you will. Typically, most states require coursework, fees, and registration with law enforcement. Given that criminals generally have no willingness to follow laws & regulations and that Licensed CCW holders is a self selected sect which inherently filters such behavior, it is not logical to assume that the "Licensed CCW Holders" sector contains the same rates of unconvicted/future criminal subset as the "CCW Qualified" sector. Thus it follows that if unconvicted/future criminals are likely to be convicted of a crime in the future, and the "Licensed CCW Holders" sector has a lower rate criminal inclusion (due to behavioral filtering), then the overall rate of conviction for the "Licensed CCW Holder" sector will be lower than the overall rate of conviction for the "CCW Qualified" sector.
Therefore, I believe if you compare rates of CHL licensees with persons that only qualify for CHL - the rate of CHL licensee conviction will be lower. There is a minor behavioral filtration process involved in obtaining the permit.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)right up till they started killing folks.
Holmes might have become a criminal when he acquired explosives, but that was roughly same time he prepared to shoot people for sport.
Personally, I think folks who don't tote a gun -- but could legally -- are less likely to be involved in crime, shootings, spousal abuse with a weapon, intimidation, racist activities, and all kinds of other undesirable stuff.
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)What additional restrictions would have stopped you?
Tuesday Afternoon
(56,912 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)And, file away posts of people you stalk on the internet.
Finally, you likely cannot assess a situation in a few seconds to determine if you should pull the lethal weapon you strap on every time you venture out into the society.
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)And further, since you freely pass judgement on others, why should *you* be exempt from judgement in return?
OneTenthofOnePercent
(6,268 posts)It's the cumulative effect of all available data points compared to the respective populations that gives any sort of meaniful trands.
Of course there are going be undiscovered or future criminals in the group of Licensed CCW Holders... no screening or licensing process is foolproof. I merely presented the hypothesis that there is a behavioral screening process/phenomenon involved with the self selection process that separates Licensed CCW Holders from CCW Qualified people. The effectiveness of any such behavioral screening process poses as a deterrent (if any) to non-law abiding people would have to be empirically derived from data.
Also, Zimmerman would belong to the "Liscensed CCW holder" and Holmes would belong to the "CCW Qualified People". Your evidence is contradicting. All it indicates is that potential criminals belong to both groups... which is what I indicated in the post you replied to.
What group do you belong to, Hoyt... "CCW Qualified People" or "CCW Disqualified" ??
X_Digger
(18,585 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Besides, why do some of you keep up with all my posts?
None of your posts are worthy of taking even a second to file away for future use.
Enjoy your guns, and petty posts.
X_Digger
(18,585 posts)Expect to see your own words repeated back to you- frequently. It sheds a lot of light on your position, as an ex-robber.
Face it, you've lost all credibility on the subject. Pat yourself on the back for that one, if you can reach around the foot in your mouth.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Read who I posted to in the your link, and try to summon up a little sense.
You, and our long-gone buddy Permatoxic (Permatex), sure enjoyed that post.
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)Dude, a bit of advice- If you must rob people, become a banker. A lot safer, and the returns are higher...
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Tuesday Afternoon
(56,912 posts)grabbed any guns today, Hoyt?
virginia mountainman
(5,046 posts)That is the number 1 thing a thief is scared of, a armed, and angry homeowner... So, to make his "profession" easier, he advocates gun control...
It ALL makes sense now...
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Politics involves much more than stats.
In fact, with politics you are looking for long-term solutions and trying to avoid problems down the road. Your stats are just trying to make gun toters look good, in a period where gun "enthusiasts" are looking pretty sad -- not unlike bankers, polluters, racists, etc.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)who gets a piece of the pie and how much. History is a good indicator of what will happen.
Response to Hoyt (Reply #11)
Post removed
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)NRA and affiliated right wing organizations.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)history predicts the future. It works with sports, stock market, human behavior (so says Dr. Phil).
rl6214
(8,142 posts)That is what this thread is about is concealed carry holders, isn't it?
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)So your question is kind of silly.
Atypical Liberal
(5,412 posts)No. In public, you are surrounded by the public at large. So we compare CCW permit holders against the public at large.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Atypical Liberal
(5,412 posts)A very tiny number of CCW permit holders commit crimes, it is true.
This does not change the fact that compared to everyone else you walk around with in public every day, CCW permit holders are over a dozen times less likely to commit a crime.
Being against CCW because of a few Zimmermans is like being against walking out doors because of lightning.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Of course, gun culture is not just about those with permits. How many of NRA members do you think pack? How many right wingers pack? How many give a damn about permits? You guys are all "related" in this context.
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)So claiming that others should be restricted because you don't perceive a need is just as arrogant as Pat Robertson declaring "what God wants"
Atypical Liberal
(5,412 posts)That is irrelevant. Even if the chance of needing a gun in public was zero it would not be relevant. CCW permit holders are less likely to commit crimes than non-CCW permit holders. Even ones who are eligible to hold such permits and just choose not to.
So there is no harm in letting them carry even if it was useless to do so.
Do CCW permit holders occasionally commit crimes with firearms? Sure they do. But they are much less likely to do so than anyone else.
Of course, gun culture is not just about those with permits. How many of NRA members do you think pack? How many right wingers pack? How many give a damn about permits? You guys are all "related" in this context.
Wow, I think I see a glimmer of a light bulb coming on in your head, Hoyt. There is only one kind of person who bothers with concealed-carry permits in order to carry - a hyper-law-abiding person. A person who cares about the law and complying with it. A person who is willing to go to the trouble and expense of filling out the forms and paying the fees all to comply with the letter of the law to do something completely voluntary.
THAT is why CCW-permit holders are hardly ever involved in any kind of crime! These people are sticklers about complying with the law - even laws that are completely optional to comply with (by choosing not to carry)!
You're right, Hoyt - lots of people, namely criminals, don't give a damn about permits. They stick their gun in their waistband and call it good. No laws or permits are going to change their behavior in the slightest.
Only law-abiding people bother with permits.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)a good idea areveven less likely to be involved in a gun crime, gun accident, etc.
Atypical Liberal
(5,412 posts)Oh, it is certainly true that if you don't have a gun, you can't ever be involved in a gun crime.
But you will still be more likely to be involved in some other kind of crime than a non-CCW permit holder.
Remember, CCW permit holders aren't just less likely to be involved in firearm-related crime, they are less likely to be involved in any kind of crime. From Public Lewedness to Rape to Homicide, a CCW permit holder is less likely to be involved in those kinds of things than someone without a CCW permit.
Callisto32
(2,997 posts)friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)ileus
(15,396 posts)baser, gunner, toter, RW bigots. pollution....hate filled...poking in their pants...
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)to add "strap a gun or two on before going to the store"
Glassunion
(10,201 posts)One is None and Two is One.
So... If you have one firearm, you have none. But if you have two you have one. Make sense to your baser toter, cowboy/cop wanna-be brain and stuff?